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Satellite bubble query

edited December 2015 in Tournament Strategy
I'm rubbish at sats. Should I fold all hands in this spot?  If I play, how wide should my shove range be?

I'm 10/11 with 10 paid.

Shorty has just doubled up in the previous hand and can be assumed to fold this hand and be left to less than 1 BB

Blinds were set to go up (I assume next level is 5k/10k) so if I sit on my hands and play no more hands, I'll be on less than fumes after the blinds have gone past me.

Assumed that I therefore had to shove here, even knowing the BB has to call with ATC.  If I try to fold to 10th then I'm relying on Shorty failing to double up in his BB again.  Plus if I'm down to 760 chips, the BB may even get a walk as the other chipstacks see it as less risky to wait and risk the 760 to KO me.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
shortySmall blind  4000.00 4000.00 7720.00
monsterBig blind  8000.00 12000.00 77935.00
  Your hole cards
  • A
  • Q
     
xxxFold     
shakinaces All-in  15760.00 27760.00 0.00
xxxFold     
xxxFold     
shortyFold     
monsterCall  7760.00 35520.00 70175.00

Comments

  • edited June 2015
    Think the next blinds would be 6k/12k forcing you all in before the shorty; Meaning i'd probably go with this. 

    If 5k/10k I assume we can fold nearly all hands?
  • edited June 2015
    So many things to consider in these spots so I'll just stick to the two asked;

    Next blind level is 6/12k so we cant survive the blinds and the shorty already passed it so we have to go with something and you should be over joyed to get it in here. What range? Well, any high card or decent equity hand. You just need something. 

    Had you had enough to pass the blinds then it changes. AQ is too strong to pass but we can let go 99 down and AJ down and everything else. 

    Aproaching the bubble it is imperative we open the other table and keep an eye on whose short and looking to gable, whose short and looking to nit up. Whose a mid stack/big stack and playing too loose etc etc. That way we can judge how desperate/safe we are. 
  • edited July 2015
    Thanks both - in summary I should fold if I can survive the next round of blinds and cross fingers shorty doesn't bust - if I'm going to be killed by BB/SB first then shove any big card or pocket pair and pray?

    Just always seem to pick the losing option in these spots (I'm honestly not sure if it's right or wrong option!) - fold and I end up watching the shorty double and then get knocked out a few hands later... gamble and my luck runs out and I lose to a BB special.

    Of course, the best answer is 'have more chips by the time the bubble arrives'... unfortunately I'm not that good at poker :)

    I did have an eye on the other table Craig, but they were all better stacked than our table. We had the 4 shortest stacks and it was clear from play and chat on the other table that they were locked down and waiting for someone to bust on our table.
  • edited July 2015
    Tough spot, if your AQ got beat you cant be hard on yourself, maybe next time look to steal blinds earlier, before you get so short and ultimately called 100% of the time.
  • edited July 2015
    In Response to Re: Satellite bubble query:
    So many things to consider in these spots so I'll just stick to the two asked; Next blind level is 6/12k so we cant survive the blinds and the shorty already passed it so we have to go with something and you should be over joyed to get it in here. What range? Well, any high card or decent equity hand. You just need something.  Had you had enough to pass the blinds then it changes. AQ is too strong to pass but we can let go 99 down and AJ down and everything else.  Aproaching the bubble it is imperative we open the other table and keep an eye on whose short and looking to gable, whose short and looking to nit up. Whose a mid stack/big stack and playing too loose etc etc. That way we can judge how desperate/safe we are. 
    Posted by CraigSG1
    Spot on here, especially about having other table/s open when approaching bubble.
  • edited July 2015
    some good answers here ....i would shove every time in this spot,tho i tend to find a shove with much bigger stsck...never get to one blind
  • edited December 2015
    how can you be 10/11 when there's a 1bb stack on the sb and villain shoved for 2bb and you have 6? confused
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