FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.

StayOrGo · July 2015

Hi all.

Firstly I want to congratulate Danny (FeelGroggy) on some great results recently.

I've been helping him out with his game for a little while, and I am pleased to say that "my student" is doing very well. However, he deserves the credit not me, as my input has been minimal.

Over the last week he has won a main, been 2nd in a mini, and cashed in the Sunday Roller at his first time of playing it.

He has generally been playing lower stakes, but now feels ready to take the next step up.

I don't provide coaching while he is playing as I don't think that's right, and I'm too focused on my games anyway. However we often discuss hands at the end of the night.

Here's a question Danny had from the "Roller". I have my views, but I think this is a straight forward question to throw out to a wider audience.

Danny was in the money on last Sunday's Roller. There were 12 players left, but he was short=stacked with 9 or 10BB.

He has JQo under the gun. Should he shove?

Following this, he has 8 BB's with A3o in the Cut Off. Should he shove?

Danny and I would be interested to hear the views of other players.

Are both a shove? One a shove? Or neither?

I have my opinion and Danny has a differing view. Would be interested in other players thoughts.

Cheers,

Graham

RLT16 · July 2015

Id shove both personally, but im not a great mtt player

unknown_username · July 2015

I think A3o is a shove , QJo ...hmm, I like it less, but I dont know why....sooo. Shove

jordz16 · July 2015

I think it all depends on the dynamics and the stacks of other players.

i dont think either is a clear cut yes or no, but if i was readless and without information i would be folding jq utg but id be shoving any ace from the cut off with 8 bbs

GSmith13 · July 2015

Probably fold the QJo UTG, and would rather lose the 1 or 1.5BBs from the blinds, and shove any 2 in the SB or Button in an unraised pot, as I think this will be long term more profitable, plus if that doesnt go to plan you can shove light in the next orbit. A3o in the cutoff, assuming it hasnt been opened then I would definately be shoving this, as with only 3 hands behind A high is likely to be the best hand, plus you want to give yourself the best chance to come 1st.

Well done Danny on your recent success.

rspca12 · July 2015

wp danny one of the gd guys we always have a gd chat at tables he his a very gd player. the a3 off standard ship imo. the qj off is close because of the six max dynamic and without antes on a tight table don't mind shoving but think fold is fine on 80% of tables. Also gl in u partnership guys am sure it will beneficially for both of u.

StayOrGo · July 2015

Interesting feedback, FYI, Danny was a considerable short stack on the table. I don't know what the average stack was, but lets say 35BB's.

Thanks for the responses

GaryQQQ · July 2015

The A3 is an easier shove imo because there are fewer players to act and you have the ace-blocker. You've got reasonable equity against all calling hands except the unlikely pocket AA.

QJ, you've got a bit more to think about. To open-shove it I'd prefer a table of fairly shallow stacks that that are calling a bit too tight and for my own image to be good. If there are deep stacks calling correctly it might be preferable to wait another orbit or two and hope for a better spot.

If very close to the bubble, or in the money, then pay jumps and the sizes of other short stacks come into the equation too, in both cases.

StayOrGo · July 2015

Interesting comments, my thoughts are as follows:

For the reasons you guys mentioned above, A3o in the Cut Off with 8 BB's is a standard shove imo. (The bubble had burst, money up top, likely to be ahead, etc.)

JQo with 9 or 10 BB is more questionable, however, I think the pay jumps make it worth shoving.

True, you are only getting called by better, but could well have two live cards and not be that much of an underdog if you get called (I'd say close to 40% equity against ranges that call you, (I think, KJ and KQ probably fold to an UTG shove, which is a key factor imo)).

The prize money increases gradually, until the top three places so, I think ICM may make JQ a shove.

I think both are a fold on the bubble, unless you are of the mind set that you're not interested in a min cash, and just want to try and win the tournament.

So that's my view, however, I am happy to receive constructive criticism.

Cheers,

Graham

unknown_username · July 2015

NO,and then,yes

unknown_username · July 2015

NO,and then,yes

StayOrGo · July 2015

I think in some ways, 6 handed, it's better to shove 10BB with JQ UTG than from Cut Off, Button or Small Blind, because I think most, KQ, KJ, hands call a shove from these positions but fold if the shove was UTG, as it is given much more respect.

Which I think, is an interesting thought.

Cheers,

Graham

jordz16 · July 2015

yeah thats true, but the fact you have to get it through 5 people as opposed to 3 makes a bigger difference imo but obviously it all comes down to opinions and who the players are.

F_Ivanovic · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

I think in some ways, 6 handed, it's better to shove 10BB with JQ UTG than from Cut Off, Button or Small Blind, because I think most, KQ, KJ, hands call a shove from these positions but fold if the shove was UTG, as it is given much more respect. Which I think, is an interesting thought. Cheers, Graham
Posted by StayOrGo

Agreed. I think the QJ has more fold equity and the A3o is often dominated when called since people prefer calling shoves with Ax hands over KQ and KJ.

I think the A3 one is really close with 8BB's.... if it was the lower end of 8BB's and blinds were going up soon then it's a clear shove but if blinds aren't going up soon and we have the higher end of 8BB's then I think we can potentially fold.

We've only talked about shove or fold here but with ten BB's I'm tempted to m-r QJ from UTG. Think this allows us to get away if a really tight player shoves, 2 players GII or next to act (and possiblky one after) shoves due to their tight ranges from that position. Also think it gets almost the same amount of fold equity on most tables. Raising QJo also allows us to induce with QQ-AA (and AKs too) - if we're not m-r anything then it becomes super obvious that we have AA when we m-r UTG.

StayOrGo · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question. : Agreed. I think the QJ has more fold equity and the A3o is often dominated when called since people prefer calling shoves with Ax hands over KQ and KJ. I think the A3 one is really close with 8BB's.... if it was the lower end of 8BB's and blinds were going up soon then it's a clear shove but if blinds aren't going up soon and we have the higher end of 8BB's then I think we can potentially fold. We've only talked about shove or fold here but with ten BB's I'm tempted to m-r QJ from UTG. Think this allows us to get away if a really tight player shoves, 2 players GII or next to act (and possiblky one after) shoves due to their tight ranges from that position. Also think it gets almost the same amount of fold equity on most tables. Raising QJo also allows us to induce with QQ-AA (and AKs too) - if we're not m-r anything then it becomes super obvious that we have AA when we m-r UTG.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Good point, there is argument for the min R with JQ, which is how I would play it on the bubble, although once in the money, I think I shove because of the 40% probable equity if we're called.

hhyftrftdr · July 2015

Just did a long post but I'd timed out, forum tilt!

Cliffs....

-shoving QJ with 10bb utg can't be too bad a play IMO
-looks strong, will often be live if looked up
-can fold out flips and 60/40s if utg+1/cutoff has a reasonable hand but cant just call and doesn't wanna commit with something like 66 and 3/4 people to act behind.

-A3 and 8bb, yeah probs a shove but its one of those spots that you always hate.
-wouldn't begrudge someone folding A3 just cos that feeling is terrible when you do get called!

Think in game stuff will dictate here. If the table is active, then QJ feels like more of a goer and just trying to get it through. You're probs gonna have your blinds nicked, and then you might struggle to find a decent spot with ever decreasing FE. If the table is passive, then you can maybe let the blinds go through you again before going for it. If there is a chance you'll get a walk then this helps!

Epoker · July 2015

http://www.pushfoldcharts.com/6max/

this is a great little site I use for this type of thing

FeelGroggy · July 2015

Thank you Graham and others for the kind comments and feedback. My push or fold game definitely needs some brushing up on. It's interesting to see the mixed feedback with some of you thinking the qj is more of a shove and others thinking the opposite. I do agree jamming qjo utg likely folds out some hands that dominate us like kj and sometimes kq but I still think that it's a fold although it is interesting. Could we use the same logic to justify jamming hands like 45s which has 40 percent equity vs high cards? With the A3o hand I think I had a 25k stack with 1500/3000 blinds but am unsure if I was in the cut off or hijack. If I was in the cut off I think i should be a jamming but in the hijack I think i lean to a fold. The table was relatively tight however the sb was fairly loose and the BB an unknown.

FeelGroggy · July 2015

Thank you Graham and others for the kind comments and feedback. My push or fold game definitely needs some brushing up on. It's interesting to see the mixed feedback with some of you thinking the qj is more of a shove and others thinking the opposite. I do agree jamming qjo utg likely folds out some hands that dominate us like kj and sometimes kq but I still think that it's a fold although it is interesting. Could we use the same logic to justify jamming hands like 45s which has 40 percent equity vs high cards? With the A3o hand I think I had a 25k stack with 1500/3000 blinds but am unsure if I was in the cut off or hijack. If I was in the cut off I think i should be a jamming but in the hijack I think i lean to a fold. The table was relatively tight however the sb was fairly loose and the BB an unknown.

LmfaoAllin · July 2015

Firstly just wanted to say a big well done to Danny, i noticed the results and have been waiting to congratulate but haven't bumped into you on tables.

Great going, really pleased for you, and so soon after previous post re results.

Regarding your questions Graham i think they have been answered pretty much at most angles and by better players than i, but here's my tuppence worth anyway : )

The qj utg is a fold for me, even tho we are so short with no antes im waiting for a better spot. I dont mind the shove or mr, both valid plays, the shove getting looked up by big stacks light with small - mid pp and ax hands where we are live but still essentially flipping at best but often crushed, obv these situation's are enevitable when this short and were ITM so not the worst spot to try and double/take blinds.

The a3 in the cut off is def a better spot imo assuming pot un opened any a v 3 random got to take the chance to du this short, although not loving any call we have the a.

Ps noticed your bink in main and 2nd in mini were in consecutive days......noice, keep it up mate vwp.

And Graham keep your eyes peeled on your inbox as may have to start pestering you for advice : )

F_Ivanovic · July 2015

The problem with 45s is it's in horrible shape against plenty of pairs that QJ is flipping against (44-TT) - overall it has less equity against a calling range then QJo does. We can only have so many hands in our "bluff shoving range" too otherwise we start getting less respect from our shoves and get called too wide.

FeelGroggy · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

The problem with 45s is it's in horrible shape against plenty of pairs that QJ is flipping against (44-TT) - overall it has less equity against a calling range then QJo does. We can only have so many hands in our "bluff shoving range" too otherwise we start getting less respect from our shoves and get called too wide.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

I absolutely agree with you and I'm playing devils advocate by suggesting 45s but if we're jamming qjo with the expectation of folding out kq and kj, shouldn't we also be jamming hands like jto, t9s and 89s? These have similar equity vs the expected calling range. Also whilst Aq and aj are gonna call hands like a9 and a8 may not.

StayOrGo · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

http://www.pushfoldcharts.com/6max/ this is a great little site I use for this type of thing
Posted by Epoker

Hi Epoker, thanks for pointing this site out, very useful as a baseline.

You would also of course have to adjust slightly according to the stage of the tournament, stack sizes, ICM factors and playing styles, but very useful as a guide nonetheless.

Would be interested to know where they get there data from? Ie, opinions of pros, through simulations etc. If it's based on simulations against perceived calling ranges that would be quite valuable.

Any idea where there data comes from?

Thanks again!

Graham

StayOrGo · July 2015

Just found out the answer to my own question.

They use "Nash Equilibrium Stategy"

Although it must be a more basic version of it as Nash takes payout structures into consideration too.

Interesting site though.

http://www.icmpoker.com/en/blog/nash-calculator-and-nash-equilibrium-strategy-in-poker/

Cheers,

Graham

StayOrGo · July 2015

Just been reading a bit more about this Nash thingy.

IMO Sky players play tighter than the Nash guidelines, both for shove ranges and ranges for calling a shove.

Which in theory means we can optimally shove wider than they suggest!

I think that concept might make Danny feel quite unwell, particularly when in the Small Blind :=)

One thing that did surprise me a bit was just how much the suited-ness affected the ranges!

I would say, when comparing to Nash, that I shove too wide when they're not suited and not wide enough when they are. Anyone else have views on this?

Food for thought.

Cheers,

Graham

StayOrGo · July 2015

OK, so there are charts around suggesting what we should shove with, with X BB's from the relative positions.

However, does anyone know where to find some charts showing what we should call shoves with for X BB's in the various position combinations.

The good thing for me about helping Danny out has been, that I've got to learn stuff too!

Plus the way he's improving, I'll be going to him for advice soon! :=)

Good luck at the tables all, and thanks for the thought provoking input.

Cheers,

Graham

P.S. I thought it was pretty straight forward stuff, this shoving lark, but as I often find out, there's always a bit more to it than meets the eye. :=)

P.P.S. Sorry for all the posts, keep thinking of something else.

Benchmark · July 2015

I'm not fond of shoving. My preferred play here would be to try and see some cards with the A3o. If I was lucky and the flop showed two cards to match my suited ace, I'd shove then. Sure I've only got 3 cards of the flush, but holding the ace reps a nut flush draw. Sure, it's a risky play. Even if a hadn't hit the flop, I'd then try to rep another flush draw, without holding any pocket cards. Shoving after the flop might give my hand some credibility.

Naturally, there are a lot of other variables that need taking into account, but given the choice, I'd always prefer to risk it on an A.

Please bear in mind, my last tourney win was £0.44 in a freeroll.

FeelGroggy · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

Just been reading a bit more about this Nash thingy. IMO Sky players play tighter than the Nash guidelines, both for shove ranges and ranges for calling a shove. Which in theory means we can optimally shove wider than they suggest! I think that concept might make Danny feel quite unwell
Posted by StayOrGo

I just had a look at the what we can profitably shove with on 10bb and can't believe how wide it recommends. Would be useful to see the suggested Nash calling range which allows this to be profitable. Seems crazy we can jam 5 high off 10 bb and expect to make money in the long run. Think it has to be very opponent dependent but very interesting. Your probably right about calling ranges being tighter than Nash although I don't know the calling ranges, so we might be able to shove almost any two cards.

Lambert180 · July 2015

The point of nash shoving ranges is that they're unexploitable. If you stick to those ranges, there is no range a villian can call with that will stop our shove being +EV.

It doesn't mean they are always optimal, there are often more +EV options, especially on Sky (no antes) but the Nash charts as I say will always be +EV shoves if you stick to them.

Fwiw, I think QJo is an easy fold, A3o is close imo depending on who is behind but shoving can never be bad. Unless there are major ICM considerations then being ITM or not ITM shouldn't affect your decisions really. If you have 6xbb and someone has 2xbb and it's the stone bubble of the roller, then yeah it makes a ton of sense to be vvv tight because we are vv likely to cash by folding, and giving average stacks in roller, doubling our 6xbb won't have that huge an impact on our chances of winning anyway, it certainly won't double what we'd expect to win in terms of £££ but these are rare occasion.

Most of the time the bubble the only things to consider around these stages are how people's ranges change and how we can adjust to try and take advantage of it. I.E. people tend to be tighter on the bubble, and people tend to loosen up considerably just after the bubble bursts because payjumps are very small, they've locked up a cash and wanna spin and go ftw. So just after the bubble jamming A3o is probably not ideal because people will call us a lot lighter than they would on the stone bubble.

FeelGroggy · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

The point of nash shoving ranges is that they're unexploitable. If you stick to those ranges, there is no range a villian can call with that will stop our shove being +ev
Posted by Lambert180

If we're vs a villain who's calling 90% of the time, shoving the bottom end of the Nash shoving range can no longer be profitable and we should adjust by shoving tighter even if it's still profitable shoving the nash range itself. Think its interesting that regardless of villains calling range we can use nash and make money long term

Lambert180 · July 2015

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.:

In Response to Re: FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question. : If we're vs a villain who's calling 90% of the time, shoving the bottom end of the Nash shoving range can no longer be profitable and we should adjust by shoving tighter even if it's still profitable shoving the nash range itself. Think its interesting that regardless of villains calling range we can use nash and make money long term
Posted by FeelGroggy

No that's not true.

The entire point of Nash is that it's impossible to exploit. We are shoving a range that is +EV and there's no range you con construct to stop it being +EV. If they tighten up we get folds more often to add to our overall EV and if they call too much it just makes our equity better.

To take your example, say we assume we have 10bb, and someone is calling 90%...

Nash shoving 10bb

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J3s+,T4s+,95s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,

A2o+,K2o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,97o+,87o

Calling 90%
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,

32s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J2o+,T2o+,93o+,84o+,74o+,64o+,53o+

In that spot we have 55% equity with our range v theirs, we also get folds 10% of the time.

It's impossible to come up with a range that'll make nash shoving ranges not +EV, that's the whole point of them. Like I said, it's not always optimal but is always +EV

FeelGroggy's rise and Poker question.

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