Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges

StayOrGo

Been having another conversation with Mr Groggan (FeelGroggy).

This time a satellite scenario:

3 players left, two get a £55BH seat, 3rd gets £11 (Entry fee) back.

For the sake of this discussion, we will say the only option is All In or Fold, although clearly there are merits to Min Raising which we can get to at a later stage.

BLINDS 200/400

PLAYER A - STACK 11K (SMALL BLIND)
PLAYER B - STACK 6K (BIG BLIND)
PLAYER C - STACK 4K (BUTTON)

Player C (Button) folds

You are player A, options for this scenario, shove or fold only.
What is your shoving range?

OK so you shove, now suddenly you are player B, freaky change of DNA and not knowing what player A shoved with :=)

What is your calling range?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, now same question, but normal comp. Final table of Sunday Roller (Stacks and Blinds both *10)

First gets: £4,125
2nd gets:  £2,490
3rd gets:   £1,530

What are your shoving and calling ranges?

Cheers,

Graham

Essexphil

First scenario, shoving very wide-probably 75% of hands (or even Any 2)-ICM means that Player B must fold nearly all hands

Roller is more tricky-probably shoving about 60%, maybe more. ICM is different here, and Player B will probably call twice as often as the last one.

As B-probably only calling with A 10/ 66 plus in first, A any/ K 10/33 plus in Roller, though much will depend on reads on how wide A is shoving

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

First scenario, shoving very wide-probably 75% of hands (or even Any 2)-ICM means that Player B must fold nearly all hands Roller is more tricky-probably shoving about 60%, maybe more. ICM is different here, and Player B will probably call twice as often as the last one. As B-probably only calling with A 10/ 66 plus in first, A any/ K 10/33 plus in Roller, though much will depend on reads on how wide A is shoving
Posted by Essexphil

Thanks for your feedback Phil

Sir-Gary

Ok first scenario, I am quite happy with my position at the moment and have time, Player "C" is not well placed as they are about to be in the BB, player "B" is also beginning to feel pressure. So whereas my pushing range would be wide it would still be quite reasonable at this stage as I do not want to risk being on 5K. So my range is probably any pair QJs up. Assuming player "B" has been noticing my play, they should only be calling with about 9-9 or better, and AJ up.

In the second scenario you already have £1,530 locked up so the places can be viewed now as paying £2,595 , £960 , £0.00

There is a significant differance between 1st and second, so therefore you should be playing to win, therefore my pushing range is even wider than the previous example, any suited connectors any face card etc. The calling range by player "B" should also be wider but not by much as they have time still, and £960 is not to be sneezed at.

unknown_username

hi graham,i was in a situation a few weeks back in the roller semi essexphil was on the table,from what i can remember 7 got the seat 8 was the money bubble there were 9 left.

i was about 4th or 5th with about 10/11 bigs there were two shorts with about 5 or 6 bigs two big stacks the other was similar to mine.

i had aqhh utg you can guess what happend cuz i beat mesel up all night thinking about it anyway big stack looked me up with aa, thought i should of folded thinking i made a massive mistake (as usual) 

was it the right or wrong move,cheers stoke

dont think ive ever qualified for the big one before that was the closest ive ever been

MattBates

In spots like this we cant just consider what our ranges are, we need to think about our opponents calling ranges are. Just because ICM dictates certain folds should be made doesn't mean our opponents are going to fold appropriately.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

In spots like this we cant just consider what our ranges are, we need to think about our opponents calling ranges are. Just because ICM dictates certain folds should be made doesn't mean our opponents are going to fold appropriately.
Posted by MattBates

thats my problem matt i see two good cards thinking the big stacks are already there so i go for the shorties

thx for the advice m8

ul in vegas hope you had a great time

GELDY

sat 

it is just so player and action dependent and particularly how the shortie plays

so i can think of cases where

a JJ+

b AA

for the roller that widens to top 50% of Nash hands

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

First scenario, shoving very wide-probably 75% of hands (or even Any 2)-ICM means that Player B must fold nearly all hands Roller is more tricky-probably shoving about 60%, maybe more. ICM is different here, and Player B will probably call twice as often as the last one. As B-probably only calling with A 10/ 66 plus in first, A any/ K 10/33 plus in Roller, though much will depend on reads on how wide A is shoving
Posted by Essexphil

Really? Player B needs to gamble at some point. On the other hand, we're in a dominant position and don't need to take any undue risks. I'm not a sat expert though but just seems bad to be shoving that wide.

Essexphil

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges : Really? Player B needs to gamble at some point. On the other hand, we're in a dominant position and don't need to take any undue risks. I'm not a sat expert though but just seems bad to be shoving that wide.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Why does B have to gamble? They are 2/3 with 2 seats...

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges : Why does B have to gamble? They are 2/3 with 2 seats...
Posted by Essexphil

Yes, but not only by 5BB's or so (or 3 orbits) - if C gets 2 or 3 shoves through and B keeps folding it's suddenly level (or almost) between them. Why does A have to gamble and put half his stack at risk when they are in a commanding position?

StayOrGo

Interesting replies thx guys, as it happened this was from a real scenario with me, Mr Groggy and 1 other in the roller sat.

Groggy shoved (11K), I called with AK(6K), he had J8, flopped a straight and knocked me out. Hence the post mortem. :=)

I think the correct play should have been he min raises, I shove, he folds.

But he shoves, so should I have called with AKo?

I told him he made a big mistake and I made a small one (not bitter honest), but still not sure if that's results orientated.

Call with AK? What about Groggy's play?
 
Go on, hang us out to dry guys :=)

Cheers,

Graham

Essexphil

The lovely thing about poker is that everyone plays it differently.

The way to get a big stack is to shove light, particularly as the chip-leader, as here-he can afford one beat.

 Personally, I would have played both hands as you both did-at those stack sizes, raise-fold is never part of my plan. I am sure someone will say AK is a fold, and it is a gambler's hand, but I know I can never lay it down 3-handed. C would have to be a lot shorter before I could fold there.

Lambert180

Probably the last thing you wanna hear Stoke but yeah I think you made a mistake in that hand. In a satellite so close to the seats when we've got a pretty safe stack, we just do not want to be playing a hand UTG at all, an UTG range in your spot there should probably be AA, maybe KK. If we are playing hands from 10-11bb, I'm probably mostly mr/folding or mr/calling and as late position as possible so we have less players to get through.

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RE: OP, I don't like the only shove or fold option from the 11k stack, I'd be minraising my whole range either to mr/call uber strong hands or to mr/fold because just a mr will get a crazy amount of folds given the situation and the BB should/will only jam massive hands. From the BB point of view, he should be calling vvv tight, AK is probably a fold, KK+ is a call, QQ is close, JJ is a fold imo.

That's in the satellite spot ^

Same spot but the roller...

Again I don't like only having jam/fold as options but if that's the case I prob jam all pairs, all Ax, KTs+ all big SCs and suited 1 gappers, QJs, JTs, QTs, probably T9s, but it's a bit alien to me cos I wouldn't be in jam/fold territory myself.

The BB should probably call w/ something like ATs+, AJo+, 66+

alex1229

This really depends on how good player C is with the 4K. If he's one of these fishy limp, call, fold chaps and is easy to dig away at im folding AK. I dont wanna tussle with the big stack, just shortie. Chances are we beat the big stack 60-65% of the time with AK, even then we're not guaranteed a seat. So really we're barely flipping to win a seat. Do we need to take that risk? If you're a better player then the others, then i say no.

 MTT obv snap call.

IDONKCALLU

11k stack no point shoving to get 400 chips tbh u got ya seat pretty much locked up  i aint shoving unless i have a premium hand here

IDONKCALLU

in a sat its completely diff to a mtt in a super roller i be shoving really wide here

IDONKCALLU

ul stoke but as others have said in a sattelite this is a fold u pretty much locked ya seat up aslong as u have lower stacks in a sat there is no need to play your hand here

unknown_username

thx paul/steve i realise now as i did straight after i hit the all in button that it was i massive mistake i was just wandering if it was actually the right move given the maths with the others stacks.cheers anyway,we live and learn and it wont happen again..well i dont think so

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

The lovely thing about poker is that everyone plays it differently. The way to get a big stack is to shove light, particularly as the chip-leader, as here-he can afford one beat.  Personally, I would have played both hands as you both did-at those stack sizes, raise-fold is never part of my plan. I am sure someone will say AK is a fold, and it is a gambler's hand, but I know I can never lay it down 3-handed. C would have to be a lot shorter before I could fold there.
Posted by Essexphil

Just because player A will still be in after one beat doesn't mean he can afford it though? He'll be down to 5k chips and only just ahead of the short-stack.

I just don't see the need to push the action when you are a huge favourite to win the seat - or do you think we actually still have quite a way to go to win the seat and that we're by no means guaranteed?

Essexphil

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

In Response to  Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges : Just because player A will still be in after one beat doesn't mean he can afford it though? He'll be down to 5k chips and only just ahead of the short-stack. I just don't see the need to push the action when you are a huge favourite to win the seat - or do you think we actually still have quite a way to go to win the seat and that we're by no means guaranteed?
Posted by F_Ivanovic

B will fold 90%(or more) of hands. If people are recommending folding AK (and some are) then it will be nearer 97% of hands. On the rare occasions B does not fold, we will often be 40/60 or 30/70-this is massively plus ev. I remember watching Bertrand Grospelier 3-handed many years ago-he shoved 7 2, 6 3 and 3x 5 2 off from the button when the other 2 were relatively short. Instead of focusing on the rare calls, look at the 9 or 10(or even 30 or 40) times you steal 400 chips (plus your own 200)....

I have played over 30,000 qualifiers, and over 40,000 tournaments. My ROI is higher on Qualifiers-the main reason is this. I am delighted that many good players still do not understand this. This is the last time I will comment on this thread, as I am not in the habit of providing free coaching!

F_Ivanovic

I don't really play satellites so it's interesting to hear a different view point from someone that has a ton of experience in them. Would be cool to hear from some other succesful sat players (TommyD springs to mind!) of how they would play this spot. It seems you are playing an exploitative strategy that works really well because most players are folding too wide. 

I don't know how to work out the ICM in this spot but you said in your first post that B should fold almost all hands due to ICM but as I said he's not that far ahead of Player C so I would expect he may have to take spots where he has 60% or more equity. If that's the case, then he should be calling 10.3% of hands (A8s+, ATo+, KQo, KJs+, 66+) assuming you are shoving a 75% range. 

10% is pretty significant when you are only winning 400 chips when you get it through. Even though shoving may still be +ev, that's irrelevant - because you have to look at whether it's more +ev than folding (or another action) The ev of folding is quite good if we believe our stack is big enough to fold our way into the money. Another +ev move can be raise/folding. Plenty of players will have a similar re-shove range to their calling range of a shove and won't defend at this stack depth ever. So we can have a very profitable raise/fold too. Of course in this case FeelGroggy was against StayOrGo, so r/folding might not be the smartest move.

How many chips as a chip leader would you need to not consider shoving as wide as 75%?* The more chips you have, the more guaranteed you are to cash but at the same time you can afford the loss more. Say with 30k chips here - we could just fold pretty much everything and be guaranteed to cash but at the same time a 6k dent wouldn't be the end of the world. Although saying that, it would bring B up to 12k and us down to 24k. So I dunno - with that much my instinct would be to fold a lot.

Another important thing to consider as others have said is how good player C is? Being the short-stack in a Sat can be a lot of fun because you can quickly get to a decent stack size by putting pressure on the right opponents. I remember when I won a PS4 in a satellite on here I got super lucky moving to a table of big stacks. I think I had about 3k and they all had around 10k and the other table all had relatively short stacks. So I could shove with impunity knowing nobody wanted to risk their 10k stack when the other table was guaranteed (by virtue of having less chips in play) to get somebody knocked out first.

*I know you said you weren't replying anymore, so just more of a question to anyone else reading that wants to answer!

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Satellite Shoving and Calling Ranges:

I don't really play satellites so it's interesting to hear a different view point from someone that has a ton of experience in them. Would be cool to hear from some other succesful sat players (TommyD springs to mind!) of how they would play this spot. It seems you are playing an exploitative strategy that works really well because most players are folding too wide.  I don't know how to work out the ICM in this spot but you said in your first post that B should fold almost all hands due to ICM but as I said he's not that far ahead of Player C so I would expect he may have to take spots where he has 60% or more equity. If that's the case, then he should be calling 10.3% of hands (A8s+, ATo+, KQo, KJs+, 66+) assuming you are shoving a 75% range.  10% is pretty significant when you are only winning 400 chips when you get it through. Even though shoving may still be +ev, that's irrelevant - because you have to look at whether it's more +ev than folding (or another action) The ev of folding is quite good if we believe our stack is big enough to fold our way into the money. Another +ev move can be raise/folding. Plenty of players will have a similar re-shove range to their calling range of a shove and won't defend at this stack depth ever. So we can have a very profitable raise/fold too. Of course in this case FeelGroggy was against StayOrGo, so r/folding might not be the smartest move. How many chips as a chip leader would you need to not consider shoving as wide as 75%?* The more chips you have, the more guaranteed you are to cash but at the same time you can afford the loss more. Say with 30k chips here - we could just fold pretty much everything and be guaranteed to cash but at the same time a 6k dent wouldn't be the end of the world. Although saying that, it would bring B up to 12k and us down to 24k. So I dunno - with that much my instinct would be to fold a lot. Another important thing to consider as others have said is how good player C is? Being the short-stack in a Sat can be a lot of fun because you can quickly get to a decent stack size by putting pressure on the right opponents. I remember when I won a PS4 in a satellite on here I got super lucky moving to a table of big stacks. I think I had about 3k and they all had around 10k and the other table all had relatively short stacks. So I could shove with impunity knowing nobody wanted to risk their 10k stack when the other table was guaranteed (by virtue of having less chips in play) to get somebody knocked out first. *I know you said you weren't replying anymore, so just more of a question to anyone else reading that wants to answer!
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Interesting feedback, thanks F_Ivanovic.

I feel the right play for me, is the min raise, then fold to re-raise. for the reason you said.
 
I'm only shoving top 15% of hands and probably only call 2% of the time, as I really don't like the call, but might just with hands like KQs for example. 

However over 80% of the time he's still getting the fold he wants, so it achieves the same thing with less risk. I know Essex doesn't agree here, but that's fine, we can agree to differ.

Cheers,

Graham