What is the play??

pr1nnyraid

FOR PEOPLE THAT ARE IMPATIENT FEEL FREE TO SKIP THE NEXT FEW PARAGRAPHS AND GO STRAIGHT TO THE HAND HISTORY..

I haven't frequented these forums for a while(or the site to some extent).. Like many others who used to put a fair bit of volume, I let the game pass me by. I came to the realisation that if I wanted to extract a living from this game, then the commitment required was too much and the health implications too severe There was also no guarantee I was good enough, or that other players would stay bad enough. A few of years on I am over the moon with my decision to take a step back, if for nothing more than the fact it allows me to enjoy myself when I return to the tables for the odd night. It pains me to say it but I am just a punter now. anyway this wasn't meant to be a diary (far too many of those already!!), so on to the point.. and yes it is strategy related. 

I decided to play the roller tonight, I found myself in an interesting spot.. I won't obscure the names on the table intentionally, as villain is fairly familiar to most I am quite sure, and my opinion is that revealing his name in the context of this hand will do very little to his detriment. 

I late regged and joined with 40BB at 125/250.

So just to fill you in I have been playing very solid, some might say nitty, just trying to avoid marginal spots early on. I had 4bet once and they passed. the couple of other times I had raised pre had just folded round, even though there was a lot of 3/4/even 5 betting going on. This lead me to want to open my range a bit and hopefully get some edge in hands given my image, also wanted don't want to be too short as this would negate my image anyway. 

So we were a couple levels on and I had had a couple of BVB pots, nothing crazy, when this hand plays out. 

What would you do in this spot given the above, and given you know the reg is fairly solid, when facing a pot size bet on the river.. 

 (22:55 19/07/2015)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
BadGrandma	Small blind		250.00	250.00	46813.00
andrew1947	Big blind		500.00	750.00	35684.00
	Your hole cards	8 10
pr1nnyraid	Raise		1017.00	1767.00	13161.00
ThroneV	Fold
style2737	Fold
ozzieowen	Fold
BadGrandma	Fold
andrew1947	Call		517.00	2284.00	35167.00
Flop
		9 10 J
andrew1947	Check
pr1nnyraid	Bet		1222.00	3506.00	11939.00
andrew1947	Call		1222.00	4728.00	33945.00
Turn
		A
andrew1947	Check
pr1nnyraid	Check
River
		7
andrew1947	Bet		4728.00	9456.00	29217.00

Curt360x27

Good to see you back. 

I think flop is an easy check back tbh. We have plenty of SD value as well as having decent equity against some hands beating us now so there is no need to inflate the pot here. Getting C/R would suck and the stuff that is going to call us is ahead now or has great equity against us. The hands we fold out by betting are generally hands we are well ahead of anyway.

River is a fold. Given our check back on the turn the Ad now becomes a huge part of our range so for villain to just bomb this river turning something into a bluff would be crazy. 

 

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: What is the play??:

Good to see you back.  I think flop is an easy check back tbh. We have plenty of SD value as well as having decent equity against some hands beating us now so there is no need to inflate the pot here. Getting C/R would suck and the stuff that is going to call us is ahead now or has great equity against us. The hands we fold out by betting are generally hands we are well ahead of anyway. River is a fold. Given our check back on the turn the Ad now becomes a huge part of our range so for villain to just bomb this river turning something into a bluff would be crazy.   
Posted by Curt360x27

I understand what you are saying re the flop bet.. I would only expect andrew to c/c with top pair and draws here most times, he prob rarely c/r as a bluff too so i don't hate the flop lead.

Let me put my question another way.. Can we reasonably expect villain to bet / fold this river??

Lambert180

In answer to your last question I'd say it's a pretty solid no. He could potentially be bet/folding this river but I doubt he is after full potting it, especially when what we got behind is barely a click raise. Probably just sigh calls it off unless he has complete air and I'm struggling to see 1 hand in his range that is air.