You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.

You might need to refresh your page afterwards.

Sky Poker forums will be temporarily unavailable from 11pm Wednesday July 25th.
Sky Poker Forums is upgrading its look! Stay tuned for the big reveal!

Need advice on handling a downswing

edited September 2015 in Tournament Strategy
After having a +£3k week in early June i've proceeded to polish off £650 on sky and probably around £200 on other sites in the last month. (probably played 125 tourneys) When i'm downswinging I feel more reluctant to grind and I find myself losing interest mid-grind when I've busted the main and a £55 and I'm left with a couple of £11's for example, where I have to essentially ship it to profit. I also find myself doubting my ability and can't tell if my downswing is due to running bad or if playing badly is a factor. i feel like I haven't played my best in the past month but maybe that's just being results orientated. Anyway a few questions:

1. What is a standard number of games for a downswing to last/ your biggest downswing?
2. At what point should I be taking a serious look at my game to identify bad habits I might have picked up?
3. What is the best way of approaching a downswing? Increasing/ reducing volume?
4. How do you improve your mental game?

I know that every player goes through downswings and that it is pretty standard to go 125 games without making profit but even with that knowledge losing consistently still bothers me and probably effects me at the tables too, not in terms of tilt just not playing my A+ game. Is there any way of learning to be emotionally detached from the results? At the moment whenever I start a session I feel like I'm going to lose and lately that has been the usual outcome. I know eventually I'll start winning again but I struggle maintaining a positive and logical outlook when things start going wrong.

I'm not looking to drop down stakes (although not playing the 55's wouldn't be a disaster) as I use poker as a source of income whilst I do a history degree. I have just ordered 'The Mental Game of Poker' as it has been recommended to me. I'm not looking for sympathy just advice on how to better myself as a poker player, I feel like my mental game is a very weak aspect. Any advice would be appreciated. Hopefully this post doesn't come across as whiny :-)

Comments

  • edited August 2015
    In Response to Need advice on handling a downswing:
    After having a +£3k week in early June i've proceeded to polish off £650 on sky and probably around £200 on other sites in the last month. (probably played 125 tourneys) When i'm downswinging I feel more reluctant to grind and I find myself losing interest mid-grind when I've busted the main and a £55 and I'm left with a couple of £11's for example, where I have to essentially ship it to profit. I also find myself doubting my ability and can't tell if my downswing is due to running bad or if playing badly is a factor. i feel like I haven't played my best in the past month but maybe that's just being results orientated. Anyway a few questions: 1. What is a standard number of games for a downswing to last/ your biggest downswing? 2. At what point should I be taking a serious look at my game to identify bad habits I might have picked up? 3. What is the best way of approaching a downswing? Increasing/ reducing volume? 4. How do you improve your mental game? I know that every player goes through downswings and that it is pretty standard to go 125 games without making profit but even with that knowledge losing consistently still bothers me and probably effects me at the tables too, not in terms of tilt just not playing my A+ game. Is there any way of learning to be emotionally detached from the results? At the moment whenever I start a session I feel like I'm going to lose and lately that has been the usual outcome. I know eventually I'll start winning again but I struggle maintaining a positive and logical outlook when things start going wrong. I'm not looking to drop down stakes (although not playing the 55's wouldn't be a disaster) as I use poker as a source of income whilst I do a history degree. I have just ordered 'The Mental Game of Poker' as it has been recommended to me. I'm not looking for sympathy just advice on how to better myself as a poker player, I feel like my mental game is a very weak aspect. Any advice would be appreciated. Hopefully this post doesn't come across as whiny :-)
    Posted by FeelGroggy
    Downswings are inevitable. You cannot have a 3k week without winning a lot of flips-variance means it's your turn to lose some. You definitely have 1 very common leak in your game-you are being too results-orientated on individual days. Consequently, you are playing your last tournaments on a day sub-optimally by subconsciously chasing your losses. Ideally, you should play your last tournament the same as your first. There is a lack of emotional atachment there.

    Everyone has times when they doubt their ability. You should focus on reducing/eliminating mistakes. Turning to your questions:-

    1. There is no standard length for a downswing. I have had several lasting several thousand tournaments. I remember one where I had 10 consecutive 4th place finishes on final tables. Another where AA lost 6 times in a row. It happens. It's poker. That is why weaker players play, because everyone can win (just not as often). I have been lucky-my worst downswing is only about £30,000.

    2. You should ALWAYS be looking for leaks etc, just as much when you are winning. We forget that sometimes bad plays are rewarded

    3. Remember that without downswings there can be no upswings. During downswings I tend to maintain volume but lower my buy-ins, particularly where the field sizes are smaller. As an example, I will drop a £55/£1500 before a £55/£3000. This is not because of the reduced first prize, just because the standard will be higher in the smaller field.

    4. Playing poker can be mentally tough. The main reason why most people stop playing is because they cannot handle downswings, either financially or mentally. You are running well this year,according to sharkscope. You need to appreciate that "this year" means more than "this month"!

    With respect, you are going to have a lot worse downswings, both in size and duration. You need to prepare for that, both financially and mentally. Look on sharkscope, and find any winning player over some years. Go into "statistics" and look at "worst 500 streak av profit". Anyone who does not have a large-ish minus number there has not played enough poker yet!

    I hope that helps.
  • edited August 2015


    That's a great reply by Essex Phil.

    I will reply - not so eloquently, but in a slightly different vein - shortly, too.
  • edited August 2015

    Hi Groggy.

    Define "downswing"?

    I have had a look at your Sharkscope, & to my mind, you are not on a downswing, & it's not even close.

    You have a 5 figure profit & a 50% ROI over 1,700+ games, & are just £600 shy of your (five figure) "peak". That's around 5%.

    That £600 or 5% was over your last 92 games. 92 games is not anything like a meaningful sample size when you have played 1,714 MTT's.

    That's not a downswing, or even close to a downswing.

    You have a 50% ROI over 1,700 games - which is amazingly good, but that is simply not sustainable, it has to level off at some stage.

    Just carry on doing what you are doing.

    But yes, definitely get "The Mental Game of Poker", because it will help you understand the points EssexPhil made. Please also remember there is such a thing as an "upswing".

    And we can't have one without the other - by definition, it is not possible. 

    MTT's will ALWAYS be swingy. Wait until you hot a proper downswing - now them beauts are eye-watering.

    If you don't like variance, it's best to stick to Cash or DYM's.
     
    Good luck.  
      
  • edited August 2015
    Thanks both for the very helpful replies they're much appreciated.

    Your right Phil, at its peak of being -£1k across all sites, I came 2nd in a £55 for around £400 profit and my first thought was 'now I need to win £600 to be even'. I am being too results orientated and I need to stop that.
    1. The fact you had a £30k downswing really puts my 'downswing' into perspective.
    2. Perhaps I phrased my comment badly I do try and identify bad plays I make but I could probably put more emphasis into reviewing hands.
    3. I agree
    4. Again I agree, I'm being way too results orientated.
    I did what you said and searched some of the best tournament players on the site and all of them had negative 500 game streaks and some fairly hefty negative 100 game streaks. I knew before playing 125 games unprofitably is standard but it's comforting to know players better than myself are not immune to these streaks and have experienced worse.

    I would define a downswing as a winning player losing x amount of buy ins over an extended sample size due to variance. As I am about 4 buy ins up at the £55 level I've lost £800 on sky playing mainly £11 and some £22 games so maybe I'm down around 55-60 buy ins- I am unsure of how many buy ins is statistically significant or how many qualify as a downswing. I imagine around 400 of those 1700 were SNG's so it probably accounts for 7-8% of my total MTT's.

    You're right Tikay. Perhaps I didn't appreciate my upswing enough. Its very easy to slip into the habit of attributing winning to skill and losing to bad luck when really luck is a large factor in both. I'm not a good cash player and am not a fan of DYM's so I think variance is something I'll have to learn to embrace :-) 

    Once again thankyou very much for the replies, they were both extremely helpful. I will take on board your advice
  • edited August 2015
    +1 to the above.

    Fwiw, afaik you play all the decent (imo) comps on sky so something like....

    2 x 22bh
    3 x 11bh
    33 main
    5.50 mini
    2 x 55 bh

    So -£650 is nothing, it's not much more than bricking 2 sessions in a row which most people are gonna do almost every week, certainly multiple times a month usually.

    This isn't a dig, but you've started off running insanely good, and that's not sustainable. At best most can probably hope to maintain 20-30% ROI longterm so if you have a 50%+ ROI, it's inevitable, you HAVE to do some losing to get yourself back to that 20-30% mark (maybe lower because not everyone is good enough to achieve 20-30% ROIs).

    People, particularly in MTTs seem to massively over-estimate what is achievable, they go on a heater and think it can last forever. Just had a look at my spreadsheet fwiw. I wasn't able to login to Sky for the first 3 months of this year but my total BIs since then for this year (on Sky only) are £23,263 and my profit is £5611 so about 24% ROI, but during those 5 months I've had multiple -£1k periods.

    It's a similar story this year on all the other sites I play on but currently only have an 11% ROI across those and much bigger swings. Is 11% or 24% my true longterm ROI on there, probably not, could be more, could be less, but no point worrying about it tbh, just play the best you can and see what happens.

    There's loads of 'quirks' of variance, like every other reg seems to win mains for fun, and I've still to this day won 0 mains on Sky, but then maybe I've done a lot better in the MBI than some other regs or whatever. Nothing u can do about it, just gotta grind it out.
  • edited August 2015
    I've actually only recently started playing the £55's (think I've played 15 in total) and maybe 25 mains but i see your point that at those stake levels a £650 swing isn't many buy ins. 

    I would disagree that I've ran 'insanely good' in my time as a poker player. At the stake levels that I have played most (£11 and £5.50) I think that its possible to maintain a much higher ROI than 20-30% longterm but I wouldn't expect to be anywhere near my current ROI in £55's.  
     
    Thankyou for the feedback, i intend to increase my volume when I get my new set-up sorted so will hopefully start winning again :-)
  • edited August 2015
    There's no point me arguing the point cos it wont benefit either of us, but you've just said you've only played 25 main events on sky and I know you've at least won 1, so in 25 bites of the cherry you've done what is a maybe 250-1 (minimum) shot to happen for even the best players.

    Just had a browse of your SS (just looked at the highlighted ones - your top 10 scores) and you've also had, 1st, 1st and 2nd in Mini Rollers, again comps around the 300 mark in terms of field size.

    As I say, it's genuinely not a dig. There's a huuuge amount of variance in MTTs, sometimes you won't get binks for ages or sometimes u do but the binks you get always happen to be in the smaller (field or BI) comps of your schedule, or sometimes the results all come at once in the bigger comps of your schedule and it's amazing. Sometimes run good can be getting your rungood in the right comps. I'm a prime example lol, when I got 3rd in the UKPC side event. Like it's just a MTT with 500 or so runners, I will play many 500 runner comps and probably come 3rd many times, but the fact I happened to do it the one time I happened to be in a £550 BI was insaaanely lucky from my POV. Doesnt mean I ran insane throughout the comp, but the fact that was the comp I happened to win my flips in etc rather than doing it in a £5 mini is very fortunate.

    I meant long term you won't have a total ROI over say 20-30% if you're playing the games I thought u were btw ^ 
  • edited August 2015
    Congratulations on finishing 3rd, how much was that good for? Hopefully the poker gods will let me run well in a Sunday Roller sometime lol. 
    I wasn't offended by your comment I just misinterpreted what you said. Ty for the reply and GL in this years UKPC
  • edited August 2015
    In Response to Re: Need advice on handling a downswing:
    Congratulations on finishing 3rd, how much was that good for? Hopefully the poker gods will let me run well in a Sunday Roller sometime lol.  I wasn't offended by your comment I just misinterpreted what you said. Ty for the reply and GL in this years UKPC
    Posted by FeelGroggy
    Cheers, was £18k. You can check people's live results on Hendon Mob if you haven't heard of it btw.


    Gl at UKPC, see you there hopefully.
  • edited August 2015
    In Response to Re: Need advice on handling a downswing:
    In Response to Re: Need advice on handling a downswing : Cheers, was £18k. You can check people's live results on Hendon Mob if you haven't heard of it btw. http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=235083 Gl at UKPC, see you there hopefully.
    Posted by Lambert180
    Very impressive score!
    I won't be going to this years UKPC I could do with some live experience before I play an event of that magnitude (also failing to satellite in doesn't help lol) I'll hopefully go to next years though
  • edited August 2015
    hiya groggy if you want to play live the g in blackpool is great fun ill be there next weekend as im on holiday gl all
  • edited August 2015
    In Response to Re: Need advice on handling a downswing:
    hiya groggy if you want to play live the g in blackpool is great fun ill be there next weekend as im on holiday gl all
    Posted by FLASHJONNY
    The reason I haven't played yet is I don't drive and there are no casino's near me . I wouldn't be able to get to Blackpool, best of luck in it though
Sign In or Register to comment.