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My experience with variance
I will start this with a **touch wood** I have just come out the other side of the largest break even / downswing I have ever encountered across cash and HUSNGS - across all sites it has lasted around 2000 games and a large amount of cash hands 15k+
breaking even for long stretches is brutal.... if i was losing during this period I would probably of quit all together.
The sick thing is this is not even "that bad" compared to what some winning players experience.
Variance can make you question the way you play, your mental strength and anything else you can think of, and if it finds a single chink in your armour it can destroy you.
For new players you need to understand that this will happen to us all at some point and variance is the exact reason that we see so many "poker is rigged" & "this site is rigged" posts..... but non of that is true.... it is just lady luck giving you one hell of a beating.... it can feel like Mike Tyson has just gave you a donkey punch!
The truth is there is only on way out of variance.... keep the volume and study to ensure you have not slipped into bad habbits (this can happen to the best of us)
We all have small stretches when your top 2 gets runner runnered or your straight gets flushed on the river after an opponent re shoves queen high on the flop.... but when this happens over a large sample you need to be prepared.
Keep your chin up.... your strategy tight & soilder on
Comments
Terrific post, Danny, especially this.....
".....For new players you need to understand that this will happen to us all at some point and variance is the exact reason that we see so many "poker is rigged" & "this site is rigged" posts....."
Truth is, poker really tests our character & mettle, & not everyone can cope with downswings without blaming something else.
Every time I play, & put an outdraw on someone, I see the same thing in the chatbox. "of course", "rigged or wot", & the most senseless of all "this site is a joke". What sort of "joke" is that, mate? THINk aboit what you are saying.
How EXACTLY do Sky Poker, who can't yet even sort the software to implement running antes, manage to get the software to favour player x over player y?
I feel sorry for these players, I really do, they just don't get how brutal & wonderful poker can be. Some days brutal, some days wonderful, but rarely what or when we expect.
At my age, I've had enough high variance stuff, so I play the lowest variance game possible - PLO8 DYM's. You can't get lower variance than those. I make a small but steady profit in them, & I know what I'm doing. I've had several streaks of 11 or 12 straight wins. How is it possible that I could also suffer losing streaks of 11 or 12, too? But I do.
One of the more erudite types - may have been Geldy - did a maths based summing up of those long streaks. He proved that if I win, say, 60% of all DYM's I play (& I do), & I play, say, 5,000 of them every year, then the maths says I WILL suffer a 10 game winning or losing streak x times per year.
It's why poker is such a great game - if we have the backbone.
Sample size, I know, but we did a 100 game challenge recently, & I concentrated like billy-o to do my best. The thread is still on here somewhere, but I think it was won by someone who achieved 69%. (BBMike?). Think I got 65% or somesuch, & never even got on the podium. Think 67bhoys & Talon both did better than 67%. I'm pretty sure I could name a handful of Ploppers who beat 60% long-term. Maybe you should join us. Come on in, the water's warm......
I had the 'pleasure' of sharing a table with Fliddyfish yesterday. He is the guy who sometimes posts in the clinic, and doesn't like to use punctuation. He said he'd gone 6 weeks recently not winning a flip or any heads, and then the last 2 weeks he'd been winning everything. I mentioned the V word, and he dismissed this out of hand. Apparently the site decided it was time for him to win or some such. I questioned why he continued to play on a site that he believes his dodgy, no answer was forthcoming. He also struggled to grasp the concept that some players will deposit X amount, and that will last them 2 weeks and it is purely a source of entertainment for them.
I think it's safe to say there will always be a small pool of players who will never embrace variance, and prefer to blame the site or other players instead of looking in the mirror.
Anyone who can manage 55% is doing ok in my book. Above that, it's all gravy baby.
Great read in the OP - it'll never change the conspiracy crew but always a nice reality check to see how bad things can run for even the better players out there.
Even if I one day did become a half decent player, that sort of possibility would be more than enough to stop me considering poker as anything other than a fun hobby. The thought of working 40+ hour weeks and getting no pay or negative pay for a couple of months is horrific. Doff my metaphorical cap to all those that have the mental strength to earn their money that way.
There's nothing else it could be, is there?
There is no rhyme or reason with variance. Poker, by its very nature, means that variance won't be evenly spread. But the people who are good or excellent players, and who put the volume in, will be on the right side of variance more often than not. They are not immune from going through a rough patch, but they are in a better place mentally to cope with it and let it ride.
And remember, if it can happen in poker, it can happen. 'Miracle' runner runners happen because the maths says they can happen. If you're not drawing dead then you always have a chance, regardless of how remote or improbable it seems.
You toss a coin 20,000 times and its gonna be 50/50, give or take.
If a player has a 55% win rate in dym's then after rake he's breaking even.
Eg: 100 games at $11 = $1100. 55 X $20 = $1100.
IMO 55% in these is a solid rate and as some of the guys have already said, some of the best dym players on the site have a win rate not too much over this (67%ish). Going back to the husngs Id say breaking even over a large sample size is very possible unless you're an absolute hu god.
Bear in mind also that (IMO) most of the players that play husng's are usually pretty good players and may have an edge on you and add to that the luck factor is increased in hu matches. In dyms you generally don't need to win a lot of hands v (again imo not as good players) who make standard mistakes.
Poker is a game of short term luck and long term skill. If a player is good and puts in the effort to improve, whilst also putting in the volume, they will make money long term. And its the reverse for poor players, they might have the odd result here and there (short term luck) but generally they will lose money. Some of the best players can have a rough patch, just like some of the worst players can put a couple of scores together, but the status quo will soon be reverted to.
It's clear you have a bee in your bonnet about something....