Expected ROI on Hypers

Hotwheals

What is an acceptable ROI for playing hyper games over a 3000 game sample. Is 2-3 % any good ? 

Sky_Dan

I'd be happy with it. What stakes are you playing?

Hotwheals

Im still playing the £1.05 games as I am getting use to them but was just looking for some guidance as I don't want to move up if the ROI is not good enough

benc

2-3% is decent, i wouldnt imagine the standard of the player pool changes between 1s-5s so bankroll permitting should defo be playing higher.

Hotwheals

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

2-3% is decent, i wouldnt imagine the standard of the player pool changes between 1s-5s so bankroll permitting should defo be playing higher.
Posted by benc

Thanks for the reply mate, I must admit I havnt moved up as even at this level I'm finding it tough. I am ahead but some of these players love to gamble haha.

aussie09

hi

3% ROI means that you are winnng 58% of your games.  this is good, but not very good.  be cautious about moving higher if you are worried about the money as that will only hamper your game and you might lose your 3%.

if i can add anything i would say that it is good but not good enough.  if you can get to 5% ROI over a large sample then great, move up.  for now, get even better before changing thngs.

rob



 

Jac35

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

hi 3% ROI means that you are winnng 58% of your games.  this is good, but not very good.  be cautious about moving higher if you are worried about the money as that will only hamper your game and you might lose your 3%. if i can add anything i would say that it is good but not good enough.  if you can get to 5% ROI over a large sample then great, move up.  for now, get even better before changing thngs. rob  
Posted by aussie09

you sure about that?

I would think that there are many hyper players who would be very happy with 3% over a decent sample

TeddyBloat

no aussie is off base.

2-3% with sky's rake is very good. 

a 54% winrate will get you around 2.8% roi.

a 54% winrate is very good even at low stakes.

[i assume husng hypers]

TeddyBloat

husng hypers are surpringly low variance for the hourly they provide.

assuming you can maintain a 53.5% EV itm rate at the next buyin level:

99% had ROI below   5.96% (179 Buyins)

97.5% had ROI below   5.27% (158 Buyins)

95% had ROI below   4.76% (143 Buyins)

90% had ROI below   4.12% (124 Buyins)

80% had ROI below   3.30% (99 Buyins)

70% had ROI below   2.79% (84 Buyins)

60% had ROI below   2.28% (68 Buyins)

50% had ROI below   1.90% (57 Buyins)

40% had ROI below   1.46% (44 Buyins)

30% had ROI below   1.01% (30 Buyins)

20% had ROI below   0.44% (13 Buyins)

10% had ROI below   -0.32% (-10 Buyins)

  5% had ROI below   -1.02% (-31 Buyins)

  2.5% had ROI below   -1.46% (-44 Buyins)

  1% had ROI below   -2.16% (-65 Buyins)

that is 10000 players with a 53.5% EV itm playing 3000 games on skys rake [no rake back]

you can see 90% of the time you are at least breakeven pre-rakeback.

if you can make 54% EV itm then 95% of the time you will be up pre-rake back over 3000 games.

http://pasteboard.co/120P5GYG.png

stuarty117

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

hi 3% ROI means that you are winnng 58% of your games.  this is good, but not very good.  be cautious about moving higher if you are worried about the money as that will only hamper your game and you might lose your 3%. if i can add anything i would say that it is good but not good enough.  if you can get to 5% ROI over a large sample then great, move up.  for now, get even better before changing thngs. rob  
Posted by aussie09

Hi Aussie

This is incorrect

Winning 58% is roughly 9.4% roi 

e.g. at 1.05 you would win 11p a game which is 9.4% roi

i am sure this would be great stats for any HU player.

Hotwheals

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

husng hypers are surpringly low variance for the hourly they provide. assuming you can maintain a 53.5% EV itm rate at the next buyin level: 99% had ROI below   5.96% (179 Buyins) 97.5% had ROI below   5.27% (158 Buyins) 95% had ROI below   4.76% (143 Buyins) 90% had ROI below   4.12% (124 Buyins) 80% had ROI below   3.30% (99 Buyins) 70% had ROI below   2.79% (84 Buyins) 60% had ROI below   2.28% (68 Buyins) 50% had ROI below   1.90% (57 Buyins) 40% had ROI below   1.46% (44 Buyins) 30% had ROI below   1.01% (30 Buyins) 20% had ROI below   0.44% (13 Buyins) 10% had ROI below   -0.32% (-10 Buyins)   5% had ROI below   -1.02% (-31 Buyins)   2.5% had ROI below   -1.46% (-44 Buyins)   1% had ROI below   -2.16% (-65 Buyins) that is 10000 players with a 53.5% EV itm playing 3000 games on skys rake [no rake back] you can see 90% of the time you are at least breakeven pre-rakeback. if you can make 54% EV itm then 95% of the time you will be up pre-rake back over 3000 games. http://pasteboard.co/120P5GYG.png
Posted by TeddyBloat

Cheers for that mate

aussie09

yes, agree.  it's a 54% win rate.



 

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers : Cheers for that mate
Posted by Hotwheals

np

you might want to consider the turbo format here.

it is still very fast paced only it starts a little deeper so you will have more edge.

crucially the rake is the same [sky are one of the few - if not only - site to not reduce rake on hyper formats or reduce it for higher buyins].

i dont know if there is as much volume in turbos though, but if you open-sit they will come

glgl

Hotwheals

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers : np you might want to consider the turbo format here. it is still very fast paced only it starts a little deeper so you will have more edge. crucially the rake is the same [sky are one of the few - if not only - site to not reduce rake on hyper formats or reduce it for higher buyins]. i dont know if there is as much volume in turbos though, but if you open-sit they will come glgl
Posted by TeddyBloat

 Think I am going to stick to hypers as there that quick I can get 50-100 of them done in a session.

stuarty117

I also agree that 54% is 

2.86% roi

What would be a good roi on turbo dyms on here thinking of moving to the turbo versions on here to gain more volume.

4% to 5%

Lambert180

Hey Wheals, getting a 3% ROI in Hypers over a big sample is vv good with Sky's rake, wpwp.

+1 to what Benc said, the standard will barely change at all between £1s and £3s and prob £5s so if you're rolled then moving up is deffo a good idea. More profit and alot more RB.

Hotwheals

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

Hey Wheals, getting a 3% ROI in Hypers over a big sample is vv good with Sky's rake, wpwp. +1 to what Benc said, the standard will barely change at all between £1s and £3s and prob £5s so if you're rolled then moving up is deffo a good idea. More profit and alot more RB.
Posted by Lambert180

Thanks for the reply mate, out of curiosity how many buy ins do you think I need in order to move up levels ?

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers : Thanks for the reply mate, out of curiosity how many buy ins do you think I need in order to move up levels ?
Posted by Hotwheals

Teddy might give a better reply but on Sky, I'd be happy playing the Hypers with about this...

£1s - £100

£2s - £200

£3s - £300

£5s - £500

You may even be able to get away with a little less but 100 BIs would make me feel more comfortable and not potentially having to move up and down levels all the time.

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers : Teddy might give a better reply but on Sky, I'd be happy playing the Hypers with about this... £1s - £100 £2s - £200 £3s - £300 £5s - £500 You may even be able to get away with a little less but 100 BIs would make me feel more comfortable and not potentially having to move up and down levels all the time.
Posted by Lambert180

yeah i think that is way too nitty, esp for a player who can demonstrate edge.

the variance in husng's is simply a function of edge or winrate: the more edge you have the lower the variance.

this means that we can very easily calculate an optimal bankroll growth strategy, we simply use 1/EV ROI

so if we feel that we beat the games for 3% roi then we need 33 buyins. and we move up and down accordingly

this is an aggressive strategy known as a full kelly strategy

see kelly criterion : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

you can adjust it to suit.  because of confidence issues or wanting to stabilise at a level you can maybe use a half-kelly strategy. but 100 BI's is overkill. especially if you are willing to be fluid in moving up and down. the kelly criterion is mathmatically sound and directly applicable to HUSNG's

let us again send 10000 players into battle with a 3% ev roi and have them play 3000 games on sky:

99% had a low point lower than   0 buyins

  97.5% had a low point lower than   0 buyins

  95% had a low point lower than   0 buyins

  90% had a low point lower than   -1 buyins

  80% had a low point lower than   -3 buyins

  70% had a low point lower than   -5 buyins

  60% had a low point lower than   -7 buyins

  50% had a low point lower than   -10 buyins

  40% had a low point lower than   -14 buyins

  30% had a low point lower than   -18 buyins

  20% had a low point lower than   -24 buyins

  10% had a low point lower than   -34 buyins

  5% had a low point lower than   -45 buyins

  2.5% had a low point lower than   -55 buyins

  1% had a low point lower than   -67 buyins

you can see you are rarely going broke even with just 33 BI's over a 3k sample  [even if you stubornly dont move down], and you wont have to move down very often.

but because of sky's rake this is very senistive if you have an ev ITM of 53.5% instead of the above 54% then your ev ROI drops to 1.9% and you have the following: 

   99% had a low point lower than   0 buyins

  97.5% had a low point lower than   0 buyins

  95% had a low point lower than   -1 buyins

  90% had a low point lower than   -2 buyins

  80% had a low point lower than   -4 buyins

  70% had a low point lower than   -7 buyins

  60% had a low point lower than   -11 buyins

  50% had a low point lower than   -15 buyins

  40% had a low point lower than   -19 buyins

  30% had a low point lower than   -25 buyins

  20% had a low point lower than   -34 buyins

  10% had a low point lower than   -47 buyins

  5% had a low point lower than   -60 buyins

  2.5% had a low point lower than   -73 buyins

  1% had a low point lower than   -89 buyins

again we can see even with 33 BI's you are 80% to not going broke over 3k games even if you never drop down

using a less aggressive strat of 60 buyins you would only need to move down from the £2.10 to the £1.05's 20% of the time. you are basically never going broke with 33-60 buyins and a fluid strat.

this is sensitive to true winrate and edge, so be honest with yourself.  eg if your ev ROI dropped to 1% then you would indeed want 100 BI's

Hotwheals

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers:

In Response to Re: Expected ROI on Hypers : yeah i think that is way too nitty, esp for a player who can demonstrate edge. the variance in husng's is simply a function of edge or winrate: the more edge you have the lower the variance. this means that we can very easily calculate an optimal bankroll growth strategy, we simply use 1/EV ROI so if we feel that we beat the games for 3% roi then we need 33 buyins. and we move up and down accordingly this is an aggressive strategy known as a full kelly strategy see kelly criterion :  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion you can adjust it to suit.  because of confidence issues or wanting to stabilise at a level you can maybe use a half-kelly strategy. but 100 BI's is overkill. especially if you are willing to be fluid in moving up and down. the kelly criterion is mathmatically sound and directly applicable to HUSNG's let us again send 10000 players into battle with a 3% ev roi and have them play 3000 games on sky: 99% had a low point lower than   0 buyins   97.5% had a low point lower than   0 buyins   95% had a low point lower than   0 buyins   90% had a low point lower than   -1 buyins   80% had a low point lower than   -3 buyins   70% had a low point lower than   -5 buyins   60% had a low point lower than   -7 buyins   50% had a low point lower than   -10 buyins   40% had a low point lower than   -14 buyins   30% had a low point lower than   -18 buyins   20% had a low point lower than   -24 buyins   10% had a low point lower than   -34 buyins   5% had a low point lower than   -45 buyins   2.5% had a low point lower than   -55 buyins   1% had a low point lower than   -67 buyins you can see you are rarely going broke even with just 33 BI's over a 3k sample  [even if you stubornly dont move down], and you wont have to move down very often. but because of sky's rake this is very senistive if you have an ev ITM of 53.5% instead of the above 54% then your ev ROI drops to 1.9% and you have the following:     99% had a low point lower than   0 buyins   97.5% had a low point lower than   0 buyins   95% had a low point lower than   -1 buyins   90% had a low point lower than   -2 buyins   80% had a low point lower than   -4 buyins   70% had a low point lower than   -7 buyins   60% had a low point lower than   -11 buyins   50% had a low point lower than   -15 buyins   40% had a low point lower than   -19 buyins   30% had a low point lower than   -25 buyins   20% had a low point lower than   -34 buyins   10% had a low point lower than   -47 buyins   5% had a low point lower than   -60 buyins   2.5% had a low point lower than   -73 buyins   1% had a low point lower than   -89 buyins again we can see even with 33 BI's you are 80% to not going broke over 3k games even if you never drop down using a less aggressive strat of 60 buyins you would only need to move down from the £2.10 to the £1.05's 20% of the time. you are basically never going broke with 33-60 buyins and a fluid strat. this is sensitive to true winrate and edge, so be honest with yourself.  eg if your ev ROI dropped to 1% then you would indeed want 100 BI's
Posted by TeddyBloat

Thanks for that mate its very usefull. I seem to be adjusting well now to these games, it took a little while but my confidence is starting to grow in them

TeddyBloat

Glgl

HU hypers are the nuts.

So much fun.

ACEGOONER

I know you are a good hu player, so my question to you given an expected roi of 3-4% why are you grinding £1 hypers. It must be soul destroying the volume required to move up even to the next level.

Personally, I would look at some sort of staking deal to allow you to play at a meaningful level and give yourself some sort of return. It's not like you are a hu novice and you can put a solid scope graph in front of any staker. You may even get some coaching too. I am sure Teddy could elaborate on this.