in the Sb with mid pocket pairs and 25BB knowing the limper will call a raise pre.

craigcu12

The combination of being out of position and not knowing his hand range until the cbet was made, mid pocket seempairs difficult to play during these stages of an MTT against someone loose. i'm assuming it's certainly worthy of play and therefore i should raise but it's the thought of how to take it come the flop an it's chance of a higher card and it's vunerbility to over cards and draws he'll have.

Here i've went for the protection route pre thinking he might still call a limped Axs AJ or smaller pocket pair and that decision has cost me the MTT due to BB  having a premium pair. i'm guessing this will be a losing action long term as BB could the have a premium pair and the limper himself still has 30%-50% chance with most those hands he'll call.

craigcu12	Small blind		50.00	50.00	2510.00
MrDirk	Big blind		100.00	150.00	2872.50
	Your hole cards	9 9
pa22ddy	Fold
x	Call		100.00	250.00	3730.00
agjk	Fold
shawsok	Fold
craigcu12	All-in		2510.00	2760.00	0.00
MrDirk	All-in		2872.50	5632.50	0.00
x	Fold
MrDirk	Unmatched bet		412.50	5220.00	412.50
craigcu12	Show	9 9
MrDirk	Show	Q Q
Flop
		10 7 2
Turn
		5
River
		10
MrDirk	Win	Two Pairs, Queens and 10s	5220.00		5632.50

Lambert180

I think it's a bit overkill/bad to jam 25bb over 1 limp w/ 99. You set yourself up for a spot where pretty much everything worse folds, and you only get called when in poor shape so you're effectively turning it into a bluff.

I'd make it 300 and just play some poker. If he limp/jams, we fold. If he limp/calls as I say, we just gotta play some poker. Some flops we c/f, some we b/f, some we're b/c. 

Just assess how the flop connects with a likely limp/call range and act accordingly... Granted that range is wide but that's poker... it's prob gonna consist of a lot of the smaller Ax, playable/connecting cards everything from 45o to QJo, T8o etc, maybe some real junky suited stuff like K5s and prob some small PPs.

MattBates

Fold is probably better than jam! We can either raise or flat here, as a generalisation the players who are limping are going to be fairly face up post so as a default raise to take the initiative in the pot. Also you can raise reasonably wide and then just as Lambo said, play some poker!

MattBates

and the limper himself still has 30%-50% chance with most those hands he'll call.

If your talking about hands he calls with I disagree, he has a much higher % to win. You get him to fold the hands that we beat and he calls with hands we flip v or that dominate us. He isn't going to limp call 44/78suited etc.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: in the Sb with mid pocket pairs and 25BB knowing the limper will call a raise pre.:

and the limper himself still has 30%-50% chance with most those hands he'll call. If your talking about hands he calls with I disagree, he has a much higher % to win. You get him to fold the hands that we beat and he calls with hands we flip v or that dominate us. He isn't going to limp call 44/78suited etc.
Posted by MattBates

Depends how bad the limper is.... I've seen calls here with small pocket pairs with their reasoning in their head being we have AK and it's a flip! Even more so if this is a BH and/or a low stakes tournament. And some players will limp/call a jam with a weak suited ace. How often are they limping TT-AA here? Probably not that often. I think we could easily have 60% against his calling range.

As for BB waking up with a big hand, well he's only going to have TT or better 2.4% or something of the time. So it's really not worth worrying about; the times we take it down pre or GII vs limper with 60% equity definitely makes shoving +ev.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: in the Sb with mid pocket pairs and 25BB knowing the limper will call a raise pre.:

In Response to Re: in the Sb with mid pocket pairs and 25BB knowing the limper will call a raise pre. : Depends how bad the limper is.... I've seen calls here with small pocket pairs with their reasoning in their head being we have AK and it's a flip! Even more so if this is a BH and/or a low stakes tournament. And some players will limp/call a jam with a weak suited ace. How often are they limping TT-AA here? Probably not that often. I think we could easily have 60% against his calling range. As for BB waking up with a big hand, well he's only going to have TT or better 2.4% or something of the time. So it's really not worth worrying about; the times we take it down pre or GII vs limper with 60% equity definitely makes shoving +ev.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

It probably is +EV but there's no way it's the most +EV way to play the hand imo

F_Ivanovic

How do you estimate our ev of raising pre and seeing a flop OOP vs a player we don't know how they play post-flop? We have 70% equity vs a range of A8+, KQ and 55-88. 65% if we add in pocket tens. That's almost a +850 chip ev when called in this spot. 

Again all this is based on some assumptions though - could do with knowing more about the tournament. Buyin level + whether it's a BH or not. If it's a BH then unless it's the £55BH on sky which I'm pretty sure it's not looking at stacksizes then I genuinely think shoving here could be the most +ev line to take. If we get 2 folds with 99's it's not the end of the world. If it's a non-BH then I'm sure raising is going to show more +ev there.

craigcu12

This MTT was a sat itself.

These MTTs are usually going to be tight but I question weather a limper may be getting away with winning pots far to easily with the typical limp followed by blocker betting post flop whilst i fold knowing it's all about passing the bubble. My first way of attempting to defend from this has been these AI pre but as was seen here it turned out to go wrong and most days it will be either flips or better hands.

bearlyther

Now that we know its a sat this changes the whole hand completely.  Personally even if it was an mtt i dont like the jam ive had made it 400 pre. Jamming would be my least preferred option and even limping along in the sb and seeing a flop would have been better than a jam.

Now we know that the hand is from a sat it makes the jam about 5 times worse as sats are about chip preservation and you dont need to come 1st in a sat.

percival09

is problem

there's no doubt imo that against most normal limp/calling ranges raising 99 for something less than all in is our best option, unless they're calling our jam with anything. Ivan, of course we don't know our opponents' range down to a t or how he plays but we have to work with population reads, we make educated guesses - e.g. when people usally limp, what kind of hands do they show up with?

Using your logic, we can start jamming 99 43430bb effective because we don't know how our opponent plays postflop, or what his range looks like. 

now, the hand - there's no way jamming 99 is horrific here. I think it's a mistake because I think raising smaller will have a larger EV, but shoving is not even close to awful and is a nice play when you're mid-masturbation

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: in the Sb with mid pocket pairs and 25BB knowing the limper will call a raise pre.:

is problem there's no doubt imo that against most normal limp/calling ranges raising 99 for something less than all in is our best option, unless they're calling our jam with anything. Ivan, of course we don't know our opponents' range down to a t or how he plays but we have to work with what we know, we make educated guesses - that's the only we ever get anywhere in poker.  Using your logic, we can start jamming 99 43430bb effective because we don't know how our opponent plays postflop, or what his range looks like.  now, the hand - there's no way jamming 99 is horrific here. I think it's a mistake because I think raising smaller will have a larger EV, but shoving is not even close to awful and is a nice play when you're mid-masturbation
Posted by percival09

Auto-correct ftw. 

GELDY

Let's hope so

Otherwise I'm missing a trick or two with my normal play

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: in the Sb with mid pocket pairs and 25BB knowing the limper will call a raise pre.:

How do you estimate our ev of raising pre and seeing a flop OOP vs a player we don't know how they play post-flop? 
Posted by F_Ivanovic

this is where thinking in terms of capture factor is useful: how much of the pot do certain holdings figure to capture on the flop; how many of these holdings does my hand typically make on the flop.

we are out of position so our capture factors will be lower than when we are IP but we can try to estimate them.

overpairs figure to capture roughly 125-180% of the pot IP, lets use the lower bound for OOP.

2p+ figures to capture around 2x of the pt

PP below top pair 60-80%

weak pairs  40%

these are very rough estimates, you can use your hand database or reference GTO simulators to get better numbers [will tipton in his books gives some capture factor estimates].

then we can use flopzilla to see how often we hit TP, 2P+, MP, FD, OESD etc

a very rough estimate here is that 99 captures 82% of the pot on average.

so if we create a pot of t750 then we would expect to 'get back' t615. our investment to get there is t300, so 3x iso has an ev of t315 when we are flatted and the blinds fold.

to work out the ev of a NAI iso we then have to estimate how often we get into the iso pot with the limper.

how many folds we get preflop

and how often we fold to a raise [either from the blinds or original limper - assuming we fold].

ev(NAI iso) = [FExPi]+C*[CF*Pii-B]+[1-FE-C]*[-B]

where 

FE = preflop fold EQ

Pi = pot we ISO into

C = preflop call [how often we get flatted and see a flop]

CF = % of pot we capture when we see an iso raised flop

Pii =  size of iso raised pot

B = ISO size

that is our EV of NAI iso'ing pre (compared to folding)

we can put that into a simple sheet and play with numbers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16xm3lz9CbUwkYP4j86oEbTRyDK734-m3mItWqGpljdQ/edit?usp=sharing

if you are willing to call v a raise then fiddle with the [-B] at the end to [EQ*piii-I]

where

EQ = equity when calling jam

Piii = Size of pot when call jam.

I = Investement in the pot [-any posted blinds]

making sheets such as this is a useful way of finding out what tendencies benefit / hurt an action and get decent enough estimates to make good comparisions.

bearlyther

^^ Post of the year!

GaryQQQ

With that read a limp behind is a no-brainer in a satellite. Fantastic implied odds for your 0.5BB. No point raising and playing a large pot OOP with an awkward stack imo.

Jamming becomes much more reasonable in a bounty tournament. I'd still prefer a limp behind to a raise given the read.

Even if you're not in the hand it's crucial to get the limper's trap down in notes to help make future decisions easier.

Lambert180

You left out a pretty crucial piece of information in the OP not mentioning it was a satellite. That changes things HUGELY.

Still think a jam is a mistake, and it's an even bigger mistake in a satellite. Still think I prefer making it 300 total, but limping is also a perfectly viable option depending on how well you think you'll play postflop.