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Is this too paranoid?
Live .50/1 Cash Game at my local. Villain just sat down with £100, I have him slightly covered, and he's a solid, regular winner. With 77 I limped in Pre-Flop in the cut-off behind 2 limps, SB called and BB (Villain) checked so there was 5 to the flop.
Flop (£5): 7T8 Rainbow
BB bets £4, UTG+1 calls £4, 1 fold, Hero raises to £16, 1 fold, BB re-raises to £46, 1 fold, Hero folds.
I'll post the reasons for my play after I've had some feedback.
Flop (£5): 7T8 Rainbow
BB bets £4, UTG+1 calls £4, 1 fold, Hero raises to £16, 1 fold, BB re-raises to £46, 1 fold, Hero folds.
I'll post the reasons for my play after I've had some feedback.
Comments
There are a couple of players who Ive played with live quite a few times where I might consider a fold, but not many.
So what you putting him on?
J9 - does he near pot bet the nuts in front of 5 ppl?
TT - would he have raised pre with this? and if he didnt, he prob not the type of player to come out firing big with top set.
88 - I reckon this is the most likely out of hands that beat you.
What about hands that you beat, but he thinks he`s in front. He saw a free flop so could have any 2. 78, 7T, 8T.
Like I say I`d need lots of past info to be folding. I shove most of the time.
He would have to be pretty bad to play any 2 pair like that with 4 others in the pot. He really gives away the strength of his hand by leading on the flop then reraising maybe he has 69 rather than J9 where you would expect him to call your raise but then again maybe he doesnt rate the standard of players playing .50/1 at that venue and thinks he can get ppl to pay him off easily.
From your analysis of the villain you should be behind and can only fold.
Seriously, in your statement you call him a solid, regular winner so if that's the case and he's getting very aggressive OOP vs 2 opponents u gotts fear something - I'm guessing J9 or prob 6,9 as he doesnt want to get outdrawn.
My reasoning for the pass: Like I said, he's a solid player, I haven't seen him show much gamble at any stage of a hand - and I've played at least 3 long sessions with him - and his pre-flop hand selection is right in the middle of nitty and loose (but that doesn't effect this hand since he got a free flop).
I think he's going to show up with 69 more than J9, because he doesn't want a J or 9 to peel off and make his straight into a very marginal hand. I'm eliminating TT from his range as I firmly believe he will pump it up pre (when he has big hands on BB/Straddle he usually makes a big raise to price out the limpers/thin the field) but I think 88 he'll check behind with more often than not.
All-in-all I think the only hand he could have that I beat is probably T8 (T7 and 78 are super unlikely as that'll be the case 7), and I really can't see him committing half his stack with that. The strength of that 3-bet IMO is HUGE since he's never folding to the 4-bet shove, which makes it all the more likely that he has a near-nut hand.
Also, i'm fairly certain he has a good opinion of me as a player. He's seen me make a few questionable plays and blow-ups in the past, but they were always only pre-flop or on the river and never with 2 cards to come so he can never put me on a bluff there. I've also never raised with any 1 pair sort of hand in that situation, which renders value betting top 2 pair with the 3-bet completely useless. He must know that my raise is a bare minimum bottom 2 pair, so he must have a huge hand himself.
Thoughts on my above assessment?
Villain did not tell me what his hand was, only that I had the best hand. My only guess would be T8, but another well established player on the table guessed at T9. Either way, I now know that he has some gamble (or SUPER BAD value-betting) in his game that I can exploit on a later occasion. I also folded the hand face-up, so he will think that I could be bluffed in that sort of spot in the future.
Another player on the table at the same time said it's a fold he couldn't make (just because it'd be too difficult to fold such a strong hand) but he said that even if he was behind to the straight, he's still got a redraw to the full-house. Personally, I hate getting my money in with a set hoping to outdraw a straight to a full-house because that's not going to win me money in the long run. Will anyone else think "Even if i'm behind I've got the redraw so I can't fold" in my position?
As for getting my money in behind with set vs straight. I dont know as much about villain as you, so the range I would be putting him on is slightly larger than the range you are putting him on. i.e, I think we are beating more of his possible range. So, yes, him holding the straight and us having the redraw would factor into my decision. Obv if he showed me 69 or J9 I`m folding.
I have to say, your thought process is 99% better than most players live at NL100 and will serve you well, and its nice to see such discipline.
I wonder if you gave villain too much credit on his assessment of you.
Nh