is anyone capable of solving this?

unknown_username

If

1) a horse is 2/1 fav to win the 1st race at a meeting .
2) at this meeting, favourites win 40 % of the time.

In a perfect world, or in a vacuum ...

what is my chance of success, the 2/1 , the 40% or some other number ?

yuranASSet

In Response to is anyone capable of solving this?:

If 1) a horse is 2/1 fav to win the 1st race at a meeting . 2) at this meeting, favourites win 40 % of the time. In a perfect world, or in a vacuum ... what is my chance of success, the 2/1 , the 40% or some other number ?
Posted by mumsie

Could be wrong but if it's 2/1 the odds, then according to the betting market it has a 33.3% chance of winning. But apparently the bookies build in a profit margin by multiplying the actual price by 0.95%. So 33.3x0.95 = 31.6.

If we back the horse 100 times and it wins forty we would win 80 points. 60 bets would lose but we would still be up 20.

But Mr. Channing would be the man to ask. 

Tikay10

Fascinating question, & we could debate it all day & still not get it right.

YuranASSet is on the right lines (imo), though I'm not sure I agree with his assumed bookmakers profit margin......

My take? Well we are comparing apples & pears - different things.
 
One is FACTUAL - it is a FACT that 40% of favs won.

The other is OPINION - the collective opinion (via weight of money).
 
So they can't be truly compared.
 
 

yuranASSet

In Response to Re: is anyone capable of solving this?:

YuranASSet is on the right lines (imo), though I'm not sure I agree with his assumed bookmakers profit margin......
Posted by Tikay10

And I would tend to think that you will know better, so that'll do for me!

Tikay10

Well there is a theoretical built in margin which is "assumed", but there's rarely a book which is exactly balanced. I'd assume 5% would be a bit low though. Bookies have to make a living & all that.

When betting, of course, Oddschecker is invaluable, ditto SportingLife.com - both of which are part of the SB&G Family. There's no escaping them......    

BADBOY985

In Response to is anyone capable of solving this?:

If 1) a horse is 2/1 fav to win the 1st race at a meeting . 2) at this meeting, favourites win 40 % of the time. In a perfect world, or in a vacuum ... what is my chance of success, the 2/1 , the 40% or some other number ?
Posted by mumsie

IMO the 40% is the closest figure relating to the probalility of sucsess. the price of the horse is just a general oppinion of the bookies

But and is a massive but that 40% figure is a total figure for every race.

to get a more accurate % figure you would have to look at the figures for winning favs in the type of race,conditions of race,

going,number of runners.

again IMO those winning favorite percentages are a wate of time.

unknown_username

Thanks for the feedback all.

Ill repy soon.

Sky_JP

These are two totally different figures. 

Despite the price of a horse being opinion based, I'd say it's closer to reflecting the chances of that horse winning, as it's directly related to that horse in that race.

40% of favourites winning at a course has nothing to do with that race. It doesn't consider the amount of horses running, or the quality of the rest of the field.

It's likely that the majority of winning favourites were shorter than 2/1.