FT ICM QUESTION

Boonicon

I am trying to figure out this mtt thing, found an interesting spot last night - I'm sure there is a mathematic ICM answer.

Just become 3 handed, I am chip leader with 100k, opp1 has 25k and opp2 had 20k.  Opp2 has been away for the last 15 mins.  Payouts 150 - 220 - 370. I think blinds are 1k 2k or summit.

I can shove every hand and opp1 knows that he can fold his way to 2nd.  If he does this he is left with a miniature bowl - so if he allows me to get away with this, and bags himself 2nd, I win the tourney from here 95% of the time.  

So the question is, what is the correct play for him?  He is guaranteed 2nd if he wants it, but there is a big jump between 2nd and 1st money which he can essentially say goodbye to is he fold to 2nd .

Mathermatically, i guess he should be calling with top x% of hands - knowing that the risk of busting is outweighed by the advantage of having a playable stack for HU? Is there a way of figuring out this calling range? Some combination of % chance of winning hand / additional equity gained vs potential of losing the £70 pay jump? 

Lambert180

Well there is a way to figure it out on your own but it would be bloody hard work! There's a programme you can use called ICMizer that'll do all the work for you if you feed in the information. I've done it for you given the stacks you've mentioned and assuming the guy with 100k literally jams ATC.

Fwiw, I think as the 100k guy you should be shoving vvv wide but not quite ATC*

If you aint seen ICMizer before, hands highlighted green are profitable calls, those highlighted red aren't and the little numbers underneath show exactly how much £££ you win or lose by making a call with that hand.

http://tinypic.com/r/m9vjbn/9

So the guy with 25k can call with 66+, A9s+, ATo+ and KQs profitably although most of those show a vvv small profit.

The programme also isn't capable of factoring in that one of the players is sat out, so I guess that increases the value of the 25k stack so maybe should knock off some of the weaker hands in that calling range above.

Btw I'm vv shocked by that result, if I knew he was jamming ATC I'd be calling lighter than above definitely, you live and learn I guess.

*Having done the calcs, I think I'm wrong about this point now, the 100k stack should jam ATC cos that's pretty insane how tight the 25k stack has to be to stay profitable.

FeelGroggy

I'd be open shoving any 2 cards for sure, there's always 3k when we're on the button in the pot and even if we get it in bad, we probably still have 30% to win the tournament right there. As the small stack I'd be calling tight, probably 8s+ ATs +AJo if deep. My calling range would tighten as we got shallower as more value in laddering then doubling from 12-24k when SS = 6k. :-) Doubling to 50k gives us a reasonable chance of winning the tournament whereas doubling from short stack doesnt improve it much.

Boonicon

If oop2 calls and wins the first hand of 3 handed, he doubles to 50k, and the ICM value of his stack becomes £256 (this doesn't account for the player being away, so lets call it £265).  If he loses he get £150. If he folds he gets £220. 

So call and win = +£45, call and lose = -£70, fold = £0.  

Is there a way to work out a calling range vs an ATC shoving range from here? 

Tightening your calling range as stacks get shallower is a good point, and in this situation I guess it means that if opp2 doesn't find a hand to call with within the first 10-12 hands then folding to 2nd place probably becomes correct strategy.

Appreciate the replies, thanks guys. 

Lambert180

In Response to Re: FT ICM QUESTION:

If oop2 calls and wins the first hand of 3 handed, he doubles to 50k, and the ICM value of his stack becomes £256 (this doesn't account for the player being away, so lets call it £265).  If he loses he get £150. If he folds he gets £220.  So call and win = +£45, call and lose = -£70, fold = £0.   Is there a way to work out a calling range vs an ATC shoving range from here?  Tightening your calling range as stacks get shallower is a good point, and in this situation I guess it means that if opp2 doesn't find a hand to call with within the first 10-12 hands then folding to 2nd place probably becomes correct strategy. Appreciate the replies, thanks guys. 
Posted by Boonicon

Yeah, you use ICMizer, I've posted a screenshot in my first reply where I've entered all the details in for you including the payout structure and it tells u which hands are +EV calls and which ones are -EV calls and that's in terms of £££ EV (i.e. taking into account ICM).

If we want a range to call off once we DU (although it'd be pretty weird if he continued open jamming ATC for 20+ BB) then can just do the ICMizer again with the new stacks but I imagine the calling range at that point will become vv tight.