One of those horrible spots in DYMs - should it be a fold?

Dozza

I made the call (well re-raised) because I believe I'll be winning the pot more often than not. He is in the 13-14 big blind region, thus is likely to make this move with most pairs and I am dominating all pairs below Jacks. Rest of the time we will probably be flipping like in this scenario or he will have me dominated with a bigger premium pair. 

Should I be taking such a risk in DYMs or be waiting for better spots than this? I have made similar isolation moves on shortstack all-ins with AK believing it to be +EV (dominating weaker aces or flipping). More often than not I lose the hand and then it leaves me severly shortstacked like in this scenario.

Dozza	Small blind		50.00	50.00	1965.00
pac129	Big blind		100.00	150.00	3840.00
	Your hole cards	J J
carneydudu	Fold
TORY	Fold
SplitSpade	Raise		200.00	350.00	1810.00
Villain	All-in		1330.00	1680.00	0.00
Dozza	All-in		1965.00	3645.00	0.00
pac129	Fold
SplitSpade	Fold
Dozza	Unmatched bet		685.00	2960.00	685.00
Dozza	Show	J J
Villain	Show	Q A
Flop
		4 A 5
Turn
		8
River
		4
Villain	Win	Two Pairs, Aces and 4s	2960.00		2960.00

Essexphil

Impossible to answer accurately-this is dependant both on the reads you have on the player and the stack sizes.

Having said that, I expect I would have reshoved as you did....

stuarty117

Its a fold with 20 bigs in a DYM we can really only call with AA KK. QQ is marginal and JJ a definite fold

grantorino

Dependsabit on stacks and reads,but would thinkits usually a fold

Dozza

Thanks for feedback - I seem to be playing these DYMs with my bounty hunter hat on at times. Will try and tighten up a bit in future when it comes to this scenario.

Lambert180

I voted for No btw.

The key thing is to think about what range they jam here. Given how tight DYMs tend to play I'd think you've probably walked into pretty much the bottom of his range here.

I'd imagine he jams something along the lines of AQ+ and TT+

Against that range we're a small underdog. Even if we widen it to AJ+ and 99+ which I think is pretty optimistic, we're still only a 52% favourite v his range and we really do not wanna be calling it off in DYMs knowing that we're flipping cos both players involved in the flip lose EV and everyone else at the table loves life.

IDONKCALLU

think its a fold here alot of the time

yuranASSet

In Response to Re: One of those horrible spots in DYMs - should it be a fold?:

I voted for No btw. The key thing is to think about what range they jam here. Given how tight DYMs tend to play I'd think you've probably walked into pretty much the bottom of his range here. I'd imagine he jams something along the lines of AQ+ and TT+ Against that range we're a small underdog. Even if we widen it to AJ+ and 99+ which I think is pretty optimistic, we're still only a 52% favourite v his range and we really do not wanna be calling it off in DYMs knowing that we're flipping cos both players involved in the flip lose EV and everyone else at the table loves life.
Posted by Lambert180

This ^ But also remember, that to break even in DYM's you need to win 55% of them. 52% fav to win a hand seems even worse now in a spot that has been covered well by Paul. 

BigRonnieC

In Response to Re: One of those horrible spots in DYMs - should it be a fold?:

I voted for No btw. The key thing is to think about what range they jam here. Given how tight DYMs tend to play I'd think you've probably walked into pretty much the bottom of his range here. I'd imagine he jams something along the lines of AQ+ and TT+ Against that range we're a small underdog. Even if we widen it to AJ+ and 99+ which I think is pretty optimistic, we're still only a 52% favourite v his range and we really do not wanna be calling it off in DYMs knowing that we're flipping cos both players involved in the flip lose EV and everyone else at the table loves life.
Posted by Lambert180

Last game I played I folded 10 10 and raised 10 10. Also folded KJ and raised 64s preflop. It depends on position, stack size, reads and, let's face it, luck. One of the opponents in my game shoved Q10 hearts (I had folded 88) and was called by a stronger hand (AA, I can't remember but maybe KK). 

I had a game a couple days back where I could not catch a hand but raised dirt the odd time to get action. All dirt hands were called/rereaised; when I raised (I vary amounts randomly) with AA folds all around. Personally, I fold here with your stack size v villain. Tail between legs stuff but it is a DYM not a tourney. You just have to beat the 4th guy. 

I saw someone scrape through a three way all-in other day with 45 chips left and finish in the money. Didn't matter, he won same as chip leader.