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Satellite Play

DoyleBrunDoyleBrun
edited April 2016 in The Poker Clinic
Thoughts on this please £7.20 satellite 9 players left 8 get a seat to the 10000 BH have got double my money back if I go out, BB 200/400 button goes AI for 3455 I call with 2970 I had AQo he had K6s. There was a player on the other table who had 2200 chips so at time I was 8 of 9.
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Comments

  • craigcu12craigcu12
    edited March 2016
    think moore info is needed.
    does this guy go all in frequently or is it rare also how aggressive is the other table and is the other short stack going all in more often?
    based on current infomation I might be tempted to fold myself, you've got 2BBs more than the other short stack and being at the point it currently is your more likely to be at risk of going into a flip or AK than you would in a standard MTT.

    Going all in with AQ yourself is worth doing but here i stick to pocket pairs 1010+ because them will hand flips you'll be the one ahead and you'll only have 3 cards to worry about if it's these hands he shoves.
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  • MattBatesMattBates
    edited February 2016
    Firstly its a bit of a gross spot either way. 

    In a spot like this we are ahead of their range but avoiding all ins is my preferred option at this stage of a sat. We dont want a 60/40 or 70/30 really. Based on this I think it is a fold. There is a few factors to consider. 

    How likely we are to get shoves through? Need to consider stack sizes of players we shove into and their knowledge of sats. If we can maintain or add to our stack by getting some shoves through then this is much better. 
    Whats play like on both our table and the other table.


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  • DoyleBrunDoyleBrun
    edited February 2016
    Thank you for your advice I wasn't happy with it but this player had been quite active so I was expecting to be in front pre flop the player on the other table with low stack was not playing any hands at all next time I will fold.
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  • BigBlusterBigBluster
    edited February 2016
    Clear fold. I'm surprised that players as good and respected as Matt think it's even close.
    All things being equal, as you are 8/9 your chances of progressing are about 89%. With astute play your odds are 90% plus.
    Unless it's a 'him or me' situation, folding is definitely the right play.

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  • BigRonnieCBigRonnieC
    edited February 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    Clear fold. I'm surprised that players as good and respected as Matt think it's even close. All things being equal, as you are 8/9 your chances of progressing are about 89%. With astute play your odds are 90% plus. Unless it's a 'him or me' situation, folding is definitely the right play.
    Posted by BigBluster
    Where do you get 89% from?

    Let's say the OP has 500 chips and has big stack with 40k on his table and 2nd biggest stack with 25k, whereas other table has a few 8k stacks.... is it 89%?

    We need more info on stack sizes but I always prefer to be aggressor in this situation and shove, not call. Give yourself 2 outs. I satellited into 42k UK open before and came 2nd/3rd and I was aggro despite playing small stakes (by choice). 

    It isn't the worst call but we'd need to know blinds, your position, avg stack sizes etc. You should have other table tabbed (ie available to view) to know the immediate situation. If you are short stacked (ie bottom 2/3 out of 9) people will be watching you, so you must show aggression at times to at least maintain stack.
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  • MattBatesMattBates
    edited February 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    Clear fold. I'm surprised that players as good and respected as Matt think it's even close. All things being equal, as you are 8/9 your chances of progressing are about 89%. With astute play your odds are 90% plus. Unless it's a 'him or me' situation, folding is definitely the right play.
    Posted by BigBluster

    Homer: "Oh people can come up with statistics to prove anything Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that."

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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited February 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    Clear fold. I'm surprised that players as good and respected as Matt think it's even close. All things being equal, as you are 8/9 your chances of progressing are about 89%. With astute play your odds are 90% plus. Unless it's a 'him or me' situation, folding is definitely the right play.
    Posted by BigBluster
    lol what on earth are those maths?

    Would love to see your working out.
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  • BigBlusterBigBluster
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : lol what on earth are those maths? Would love to see your working out.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    Basic mathematics - as I said, all things being equal you are 89%. 8 of 9 qualify.

    This may help - get out your calculator, press 8, divide (that's the / button) by 9 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage. If you're still dumbfounded, ask a 5 year old.

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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Basic mathematics - as I said, all things being equal you are 89%. 8 of 9 qualify. This may help - get out your calculator, press 8, divide (that's the / button) by 9 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage. If you're still dumbfounded, ask a 5 year old.
    Posted by BigBluster
    This doesn't compute, as all things aren't equal.

    Please keep posting your maths though, always a good laugh.
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  • MattBatesMattBates
    edited March 2016
    So based on your maths we are never calling any hand as we would never be in a 89% fav spot so would be making a -ev call even with aces?
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  • stuarty117stuarty117
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Basic mathematics - as I said, all things being equal you are 89%. 8 of 9 qualify. This may help - get out your calculator, press 8, divide (that's the / button) by 9 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage. If you're still dumbfounded, ask a 5 year old.
    Posted by BigBluster
    This dosnt make sense

    So if i am in 2nd with 9 left (2/9 x 100)

    i only have a 22% chance of getting through


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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : This dosnt make sense So if i am in 2nd with 9 left (2/9 x 100) i only have a 22% chance of getting through
    Posted by stuarty117
    Are you suggesting that bigbluster and mathematics don't go hand in hand?
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  • stuarty117stuarty117
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Are you suggesting that bigbluster and mathematics don't go hand in hand?
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    Yes but i am not going dogging
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited March 2016
    IROLn Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Yes but i am not going dogging
    Posted by stuarty117
    TROLL
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  • GELDYGELDY
    edited March 2016
    back on point

    easy fold

    can even fold AA in that spot

    gl
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    back on point easy fold can even fold AA in that spot gl
    Posted by GELDY
    We never went off point. Someone said hero is 89% to go through, everyone else was baffled at the absurd maths behind it.
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  • MattBatesMattBates
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    back on point easy fold can even fold AA in that spot gl
    Posted by GELDY
    Seriously?
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  • GELDYGELDY
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Seriously?
    Posted by MattBates
    maybe not
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  • GELDYGELDY
    edited March 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : maybe not
    Posted by GELDY
    In fact
    The way I was running last night I'd probably call even with 23o
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  • chiggypigchiggypig
    edited April 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:as I said, all things being equal you are 89%. 8 of 9 qualify. 
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Basic mathematics - This may help - get out your calculator, press 8, divide (that's the / button) by 9 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage. If you're still dumbfounded, ask a 5 year old.
    Posted by BigBluster
    Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaahahahahahaaaaahaha, it's been a month so I hope you've realised your mistake!
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  • chiggypigchiggypig
    edited April 2016
    Now for the actual question, if there are big stacks to your left I would consider a call, but if you only consider you and the other 2 shortstack, then you are ~66% to win the satellite. Now, if you call and win he almost certainly loses, but as I said you're at least 66% to go through, so you'd want to be 70%+ against the shovers range which you won't be, so you should fold. However there are other factors that would change this, maybe the players on the other table are inexperienced and are giving the shortstack walks and you have big stacks to your left, likely to call your shoves, then I would call here.
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  • percival09percival09
    edited April 2016
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play:
    In Response to Re: Satellite Play : Basic mathematics - as I said, all things being equal you are 89%. 8 of 9 qualify. This may help - get out your calculator, press 8, divide (that's the / button) by 9 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage. If you're still dumbfounded, ask a 5 year old.
    Posted by BigBluster
    Dear Lord
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