Too tight a fold?

Phantom66

Am I correct in thinking that the Btn folded then?

Phantom66

DYM bubble.

I am at the dizzy heights of £16.50 as part of a spinup challenge. Significant extra value for completing this level and the next 3 as I could win a £110 tournament entry...

This may have clouded my thinking as I talked myself into folding AA.

Blinds are 150/300

C/O - An absolute rock in early levels, but has pushed all-in in later levels ,shoves 3740
BTN - Very Laggy - oddly for a dym player insta calls for all of their 2005
SB - ME 2705 behind - I have the bullets
BB - 3100 behind - very solid winning player

Thinking was I could be knocked out here with a call, even though I am clearly favourite to win and if we both lose to the UTG I still cash.

Folding I have a roughly 50/50 chance of cashing risk free and if the small stack wins, I will still be in better shape than I was before the hand was dealt as the shortest stack at the table will now have 1600 chips and I will be on the button next hand.

I have run an ICMizer scenario, not very handy with it. Obviously depends on what ranges you put in but I think it is a close run thing between folding and calling.

What would you do?

Phantom66

In Response to Re: Too tight a fold?:

Am I correct in thinking that the Btn folded then?
Posted by yuranASSet

No. But I have edited OP.

stuarty117

Hi phantom your missing 400 odd chips with your chips stacks

ICM says its a marginal call

But i dont think i could call in this spot. The way i look at it is this: -

We have just been handed a free chance to cashing if the big stack loses this hand we are still in great shape as he will now have to start and gamble. 

Plus big stack if he loses will be in the blinds next hand so even more pressure will be on him then.

Phantom66

Thanks Stu.

I havent included the SB and BB in the stacks above, need to add them in for the ICM calculator

ICMizer showed AA at +2% EV ad KK a very slight call with 8% ranges on 1st 2 all-in players.

Folding in these spots is a big adjustment from 6max play but one I am getting used to.

I think I followed the same reasoning as you although the maths seems to say I'm losing a little value long term.

Given the extra value of the tourney v normal (higher buy-in than used to and the extra value for getting through level 10 - as you well know) that leaned me towards the fold. I had been totally card dead for a few orbits so eyes lit up at the Aces, was deciding whether to min-raise or shove when 1st player shoves, getting ready to call when 2nd player shoves. 

I folded, Short-stack doubled up KQ v 77 and I eventually made the money. 

BigRonnieC

Sorry to be blunt, but what use is a £110 tourney entry if you a) seize up in a satellite and b) play a spin and go for a tourney that likely requires numerous +ev calls.

I could win entry to an Omaha hi/lo tourney but you might as well give an ape the chips; if you won't play AA in a satellite how will you play button or shortstacked in main event? 

Phantom66

Hi Ronnie.

Thanks for taking the time to reply and there is no need to apologise.

You are of course correct. The context, part of a spinup challenge and the extra prize for completing, should be irrelevant to the decision making. I am just being honest that they may have clouded my judgement. I don't normally have more than 10% of my bankroll invested in a single SNG and I am only doing that because the funds have come from the lower level wins.

I think I make worse mistakes than folding AA here though. 

I don't believe I was playing scared, this was genuinely a marginal decision. 

BigRonnieC

I dunno. I don't fold AA on a spin & go but 3 way I get the dilemma; add anymore players I defo fold. Then again I don't play spin & go nor do I get the mentality.

stuarty117

Ronnie this wasnt a spin and go

This was a dym so if we fold we can still win. This is were dyms are different to all other formats as on cash and mtts your ready ro smash the all in button. I have folded kk and aa many a time in situations like this. 

It is a tough one as it didnt work in ur favour this time. But you still cashed which is the main thing

Phantom66

No these were not "spin and go's" they were standard DYMs on this site.

Part of a challenge Lambert180 started a while back.

stuarty117 being modest not pointing it out as you will see from the OP he is the only one to complete it so far.

https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3a57795ac2-1793-4377-b4cf-e124b0f555f4Forum%3adf77f82c-151f-4bea-aae1-fb423dcae1faDiscussion%3a5a3d39f4-7da6-4098-ade7-2f6c6d952a98

bbMike

Stu is better than me so I always worry when I disagree!

I don't know what the ICM calculator is solving to or whether it has all the info available to give a contextual answer(?) but for me, the only way you fail to cash in this spot if you call is if you lose to BOTH players AND the short stack has the best hand of the 3. We've all been there where the board runs out 4 hearts or whatever and you lose to 2 flushes but it's pretty unlikely (without the numbers!).

As well as avoiding situations where you could bust you also have to take opportunities to cash. You want to avoid 'being back in the mix' and that's going to happen if shorty doubles. If the big stack has been throwing it about to starve others it's a good spot for the 2k guy to call with good aces or pairs all of which you dominate.

If you call and lose to the shorty but beat the big stack you'll have about 2k and will have knocked the bigger stack back to 1k, that's a decent outcome, so that twinned with the chances to cash mean I'm calling.

I would fold KK here though.

bbMike

PS well done on winning through and GL with the challenge.

Phantom66

I can't fault your reasoning there Mike.

I was also chatting to another dym reg who said they would call here with similar reasoning.

I nearly snap called thinking I would have called the opening all-in and have the 2nd player well covered. Then I slowly talked myself out of it as the time bar drained away.

I am guessing that shortie will only be 30% to win the hand, so I am 70% to cash there and then, with only a 50% chance to cash if I fold. To counter that calling has added risk, of either busting completely or taking a big dint and being the shortie albeit not desperately short. If I fold and shortie wins I still improves my equity.

Risk v Reward.

Folding is guaranteed to increase my expectation of cashing whatever the outcome bringing some reward. possible full reward with 0 risk. Calling overall gives me a higher chance of cashing but only slightly and carries the risk of busting there and then.

The fear of busting probably played a part here and the ICM calc seems to indicate that was a slightly worse decision long term.

F_Ivanovic

I don't play DYM's too often at all (only in promo's) but I agree with Mike's post and think AA is a call and KK is a fold. PPT only works out your % to win vs 2 hands. I'm not sure if there is a tool out there to work out the likelyhood of BTN winning and SB beating you also but as Mike said I imagine it's very low. (somewhere in region of 2%?)

So 72% of the time we win and cash, 13% of the time CO wins and we cash, 13% of the time BTN wins but we beat CO and we still have 2300ish chips with CO being left with just 1000. And only 2% we bust.

Seems like a pretty great situation given that if shorty double's up (which'll prob happen ~50% of time?) then we will def. still be busting more than 2% of the time from there.

JustPaid

 I'm reposting as it didn't post. Sorry if there's a delay I didn't know about for noobs, and it posts twice!

I think it was a good disciplined fold.

Congrats on reaching level 7.

Does anyone know what structure to use in sin n go wiz, that is nearest to Sky dym's? 

The_Ruiner

gents.
is the ICM software free to joe public or do we have to pay for this?
can anyone post useful links to the best sites or software to use.
I am very interested in using this type of tool so that I avoid playing like a tool!

TeddyBloat

ICMIZER is what you want, its a great tool for solving push/fold spots.

you get 3 free calculations per day, + 1 nash calculation, so is very useful for recreational or improving players.

http://www.icmpoker.com/

TeddyBloat

there is also an excellent tool made by the simple-post flop gto guys.

http://simplenash.com/

its completely free, you just request a trial key and it will work indefinately [or until they decide to start charging].

JustPaid

In Response to Re: Too tight a fold?:

gents. is the ICM software free to joe public or do we have to pay for this? can anyone post useful links to the best sites or software to use. I am very interested in using this type of tool so that I avoid playing like a tool!
Posted by The_Ruiner

I think I paid $99 for SNG wiz, a few years ago. I'm a bit rusty, but it was a great piece of software at the time. Maybe icmizer has overtaken it. 

Good links thanks, Teddy. 

Phantom66

I used icmiser for my little calc.

It's essential in these spots as the hand ranges are imo not very relevant (when we have AA) and it's all about relative stack sizes.