skill or luck?

freeatlast

 how much of poker is skill and how much is luck?   i apprecate luck play a bigger part in the  latter stages of tournements i just wonder what is the percentage of skill over luck through out the differnt formats?

Itsover4u

better you are the less you rely on luck.... its down to the individual

Ask moorman if he got lucky thousands of times

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: skill or luck?:

better you are the less you rely on luck.... its down to the individual Ask moorman if he got lucky thousands of times
Posted by Itsover4u

He's married now so can't imagine he's getting lucky like he used to.

bearlyther

100% luck

unknown_username

12% luck

35% skill.

53% dark matter.

CxE1

Im sticking to prayer. It does not really work but at least i have someone to blame

Darkangel7

In Response to Re: skill or luck?:

Im sticking to prayer. It does not really work but at least i have someone to blame
Posted by CxE1

Hahahahaha didn't work yesterday :P

Fluke for me.

ShaunyT

That depends entirely how you play the game. You can be loose, or tight, or somewhere in between. This will affect your bank roll swings. You can also improve your knowledge of the game, take notes on players, research statistic for shoving/calling ranges in certain situations. Theres loads of things.

 You could have extensive notes on a player and have the statistics to back up your decision and make a call, yet the villian who loses agaiinst you might think its "blind luck".

If the best in the world are continually learning and putting hours of work every single day, its very hard to quantify luck.

P.S. I have just noticed your username is freeatlast, and youve only made 2 posts in 4 years..... where have you got free from?? lol

yuranASSet

In the words of Fort Minor:

"This is ten percent luck, twenty percent skill

Fifteen percent concentrated power of will

Five percent pleasure, fifty percent pain

And one hundred percent reason to remember the name!"

Nuggy962

I like to think I am skilfully lucky haha 

DoyleBrun

Think it was Gary Player who said "The more I practise the luckier I get".

GaryQQQ

I'd say it's about 75% luck, 25% skill.

Where you fall between 0% and 25% in the skill element will eventually determine your long-term results.

Your results over a short period mainly depend on where you fall between 0% and 75% in the luck element.

freeatlast

In Response to Re: skill or luck?:

That depends entirely how you play the game. You can be loose, or tight, or somewhere in between. This will affect your bank roll swings. You can also improve your knowledge of the game, take notes on players, research statistic for shoving/calling ranges in certain situations. Theres loads of things.  You could have extensive notes on a player and have the statistics to back up your decision and make a call, yet the villian who loses agaiinst you might think its "blind luck". If the best in the world are continually learning and putting hours of work every single day, its very hard to quantify luck. P.S. I have just noticed your username is freeatlast, and youve only made 2 posts in 4 years..... where have you got free from?? lol
Posted by ShaunyT

noted your response all good  points thanks for the input    as too the name i watched a documentry about martin luther king just before joinimg sky poker nothing to do with my domestic arrangments!! 

markycash

It is dependent on a number of factors and IMO a bit reductionist to put an exact % on it.

In general the more games played the less luck or rather variance is a factor (with a few exceptions).

If you play 1 game of poker and end up 'getting it all in' with AK versus 77 then your odds of winning are less than but very close to 50%. In this case case 'how you run' or luck will be highly significant.

On the other hand, presuming you are playing well in the long run over thousands of games and not overly nitty waiting on AK and 'getting it in' in suitable spots with the AK then you will run into the odd AA & KK but you will be called down regularly by ranges including weaker aces and be in a much stronger long term position. Over thousands of games getting it in with the AK in these suitable positions will have turned into a maybe 70% play overall. Even in 1 game as we all know 70% can still be swept aside by luck but over thousands of games it shouldn't be.

The moral of the story isn't that all you need to do is shove AK as the rest of your game is also important and there is a massive amount of skill if chipping away at players without having to be 'all in' and having your tourney life on the line more than it needs to to be.

For example if you have a table of nitty players who you can chip away at it may be prudent to fold TT JJ even QQ etc in certain spots and be small ball aggressive in position with much much more marginal hands when you are unlikely to meet much resistance and are mostly just picking up free chips.

Luck versus skill also depends on # of players you are playing against, game variant you are playing, the bankroll management you employ, the number of games played (as mentioned) and a host of other factors.

I.E. you could employ all these factors and amass a bankroll of £1m and then sit at a nosebleed stakes cashgame and snap call someone with a pair of 7s for your entire £1m bankroll and effectively reduce your entire poker career to luck again.

Game variant also matters, on average a really consisent and skilled OH8 player will have much steadier results than a really consistent and skilled hyper turbo NLHE player (although not necessarily make more money).

I personally liken poker to stock trading. You are taking many factors into account (chip stacks, # of players, your hand strength, table position etc) and deciding what to invest in and how much. Now I know the financial sector has rightly taken a lot of stick lately but I don't think many people would class working in stock trading as simply a matter of 'luck'.