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The right percentage to make the call (hold'em)
Hi all
I dont no if im wording this correctly but here goes. Obviously before calling you cout your out and other things to consider I was just wondering what is the right percentage to call? Is 28% 35% or even 40% to low to call? Any advice grateful thank you
Comments
I recall a tv analyst/poker player saying they would never call more than 35% of their stack unless they thought they had the nuts, but that may have been in a particular situation at the time.
For me though I think we can sometimes call with 100% of our stack if the odds are very much in our favour and like you say if the odds are very much stacked against us but the pot odds are in our favour, then we still have to make the call.
If it's only goin to cost us 1BB to win 50BBs it's a no brainer no matter what the odds of winning the pot are.
I wasn't sure whether OP meant percentage (%) of his stack or chances in Percentage (%) of winning the pot, but you answered this very cleverly.
Nice work.
Dohhhhhh has given a really good answer here but as in all poker questions the answer is "it depends". You were certainly never going to get an answer like "Yes, 25% is fine...call every time".
You really need to think very carefully about the situation as a call pre-flop is different to a call on the flop, the turn and the river. Pre-flop calls often come down to the two big questions of position and stack size. You might call when you are 100% certain you are behind, if you have a hand like 3c4c for example, because the stacks are big relative to the blinds and you know you can win a lot on the few times you hit or because you have position and you feel you can outplay the player.
When calling on the flop you certainly need to consider pot odds...how much can I win and how much does it cost? If I can win 400 and it costs me 100 I am getting 4/1 and if I am chasing a flush that would be great odds. At 3/1 it would still be good. At 2/1 it would be marginal and at 6/4 it would be a bad call. There are two other things to consider here though and they both relate to how much money is left in our stacks after I call.
One factor is "implied odds" which means the money we can win from bets that might come after this bet. If I have 10,000 chips and my opponent has 12,000 chips and he bets 100 on a flop of 8, J K then I might decide to call with a pair of 6s or a backdoor flush draw even though the chances I am ahead right now are very small...I could win a lot if I hit and the price is small. More normally a flush draw situation is one where this concept is important. Maybe I'm only getting 6/4 pot odds on my call but I can factor in the extra money I will surely win if I hit...things like the ability of the other player...does he pay off bets he shouldn't or can he make good lay-downs? the texture of the board...if I hit will it be obvious that I have? and my guess as to the current strength of my opponents hand...If it's a big hand I'll get paid.
The 2nd part of the decision in the flush draw example is the question of whether you'll see the river card. If I call a 3 bet having opened and I flop a flush draw on an ace high board and now my opponent bets an amount that leaves him a pot sized bet then I have to say that he'll probably go all-in on the turn. I might be able to call on the flop knowing that I get all the money if I hit but I can't really say that I'm getting the odds I need to hit if I only see one card. If the stacks are much deeper it is more likely that I get offered a chance to see the river.
In the original question you did talk about outs so I assume you wanted to talk about the odds needed to call on the flop and turn but for river calls a lot will come down to the range that you've given the opponent. At this stage you will have maximum information on their hand and the decision is just...Ok they can have this, this, this or this. What are the chances of them having each of those based on my experience of poker, the way they've played the hand and what I know about them? What odds am I getting? If it's 50% they have a hand that beats me and 50% they don't then I just need to get odds of greater than 50%. If there is a chance they have a missed flush and are bluffing but they could also have hit a pair that beats me on the river then it may be more complex. It could also be complex if losing this pot means your stack no longer has 3-bet fold equity...you can't make people fold if you reraise...or maybe you have been running over this table and this one pot will end all that. In those circumstances I may choose to fold even though I "know" it was a good spot to call.
I hope you realise now why I couldn't answer your question in the chatbox, why it took me a few days to send a reply and why poker is not as easy as some people think.
Just 1 example is the fact that there are 2 pots, which alters things a bit.
For example lets take DYM's...
There are times in a NLHE DYM that folding a flip situation is correct and times when it isn't. If you think it is a flip and you have 50% of your stack already in via the BB and will have no fold equity if you fold, then 'generally' it is a call (obviously there are some exceptions like if you are on the bubble and 2 players will be all in due to their stack sizes in subsequent hands). Then there are times when this flip situation is a fold for example you have AK with a 2000 stack at 50/100 blinds and you have noticed someone standard opens his Ax range but open shoves small and mid pairs, facing a shove in this situation, if you have this read, then this is a fold. Even if you were to win 60% of your flips in the long term which is unlikely, when you account for rake and the fact that you won't cash every single time even when you win the flip then you are going to lose money in the long run.
When comparing this to PLO8, much of the same applies however the split pot element and the fact that you won't be scooped as often in PLO8 as you are in NLHE means that it is altered a bit. It is still obviously better to be the one applying pressure and picking up free chips when applicable than calling shoves with 0% chance of pressuring them out of the pot with whatever fold equity you have. However the point on the spectrum between when it is correct to fold and when it is correct to call is a little altered though due to the split pot element. So in general the same sentiments apply but there are differences and it depends on the individual situation.
That is just one example from one game type, there are a good few more differences depending on numerous factors such as game vaiant, stack sizes, whether it is PL NL FL, whether it is cash, MTT or SNG etc etc etc
The point Neil mentioned about folding even if he knows 'he is good' as he likes the set up and can keep chipping away at other players but if he busts this certain player then this situation will end is really important IMO. You have to factor into the situation whether it will be better to fold and then apply pressure and leave other players with the difficult decisions to make and introduce the chance of you picking up chips uncontested, whether you would have 'been good' or not and not relying on your hand holding up at showdown.