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bad thinking?
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceweecheez1Small blind 10.0010.002020.00Michael_MBig blind 20.0030.001980.00 Your hole cards77 Andy803Fold WITHOFI596Fold TanyadaleFold xRaise 70.00100.001900.00weecheez1Call 60.00160.001960.00Michael_MFold Flop 7A7 weecheez1Check xBet 160.00320.001740.00weecheez1Call 160.00480.001800.00Turn 10 weecheez1Check xBet 480.00960.001260.00weecheez1Call 480.001440.001320.00River 6 weecheez1All-in 1320.002760.000.00xFold weecheez1Muck weecheez1Win 1440.00 1440.00weecheez1Return 1320.000.002760.0
Comments
Just woke up and chilling with a coffee so I will give this a shot
Always a tircky spot when flopping quads as with card removal you have some of the connecting cards, at least here there is an ace and 2 clubs on the flop. Much worse if you have like 99 on a 992 flop, I mean what can your opponent have?
Actually asking yourself that question here is a good starting point, on the flop, what can he have?
We know he doesn't have a set unless he has AA in the hole (in which case we don't need to rush to build the pot as he will get it all in the instant we show interest). I think we have to put him on Ax here but he could also be betting with complete air in these tourneys. There is also the possibility he has some sort of flush draw.
So we have him on...
Ax - In which case we are happy to let him keep bashing pot bets out and let the pot build.
Complete air - We have to let him lead the action as the opponent is folding to any bets we make unless they decide to get very creative.
Flush draw - This is trickier but still we do not want to scare them off and ideally want the 3rd club to fall.
With his pot bets, and no previous read, I would usually have them on a decent ace which he is trying to 'protect' with the big bets as they don't wan't you hitting a flush.
As played I would say...
Preflop - the flat call is fine, there is no need to reraise and inflate the pot and lose any semblance of pot control at this early level. You obviously have plenty of implied odds to call even out of position.
Flop - Again I think the flat call is fine, if you put in a big reraise you fold out his 'complete air' hands and could even get some opponents to fold weak aces or flush draws which we don't want. If the club comes and opponent has a flush draw it is payday.
Turn - The 10 doesn't really change anything however the opponents pot size bet, the size of the pot and the fact we only have one street to come do change things 'a little'. We now have the 'option' of doing something other than flatting if we want to take it. If you outright shove on his pot bet then some players will be folding weak aces and flushes and obviously 'complete air' will be folding. At these levels in a B/H tourney enough players will call with their Ax though and some even with the flush draw that the shove isn't 'wrong' IMO but as opponent has potted every street it may not be optimal and I would be inclined to see if he keeps it up by doing it on the river. You could also mini-reraise the turn and give him 'some odds' to call for the flush, the only problem is that this often looks incredibly strong and will lead many 'decent players' to sense something is awry. With everything added up and most importantly because he is potting every street I would probably do the same as you and check/call.
River - I think the key component here is that it is a relative brick, as played, that lands on the river. The river is unlikely to have changed his hand. I think when we shove the river we lose a lot of hands, the missed flushes and 'complete air' hands have no play but to fold. Some players with aces will fold although some will call hoping you missed the flush. All in all, again as he has thrown the pot on every street and we don't want him to fold which he may with many hands to a shove, we have to check again IMO. Due to the size of the pot, if he has a busted flush draw or 'complete air' the only way he can win the pot is to bet here and probably shove on you. He may also think Ax is good as a the flush didn't come and value bet his Ax. If he has some weird hand for this spot like TT or 66 he is still betting.
For these reasons I think he is betting so often here on the river that we can just check and hopefully let him shove or committ himself completely to the pot.
So as played I think all streets I would do the same apart from the river. As played I think the opponent is usually betting and probably shoving most rivers. It is always tricky especially out of position in these spots figuring out what to do (not that I am suggesting folding the 77, it's an easy call preflop).
C/c, c/c then donk shove the river gives him the chance to fold so much of his range and of course all his bluffs/missed clubs.
You could lead river really small and try and induce, would depend on the villain.