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Hand 1:
I think this depends on the player and by that I don't mean the opponent, I mean who is sitting with the AA99 rainbow. If you didn't feel you had any edge over the other players then I guess it is fine to 'gamble' here. The numbers as phantom alluded to would be quite close. There would be a ton of equity to gain and if you scooped the pot you would probably be chipleader or thereabouts. If you feel you had an edge over the other players then I would say it is a fold. There is a case for saying that even a player with an edge could call here as it may give them the chips to go on and take down the tourney but I think I am folding this one mostly.
Hand 2:
I would be bashing my call button here. We are too short to be so fussy that we fold here. If we are going to fold this then chances are the blinds will be going through us once or twice again while we wait on a 'suitable hand'. Chance to be right back in it and up/above the average stack size. If we lose then so be it, onto the next tourney.
Hand 3:
Again I am with the majority. I don't think there is any case at all for calling here. The numbers mean this is a pure gamble, a bit like flipping with AK versus a PP in a holdem DYM. By the time rake is considered a call here would be a long term losing play.
I need to have a hunt and find the oh8 odds calculator I used to use.
Thanks for the replies folks! Was interested to see what you would think of these 3 scenarios.
However, there's only 2 aces left in the deck. And whilst it seems like one of the players must have AA, it also seems hugely unlikely because one of the other 2 players must surely have an A in their hand to be raising or 3/4 betting in that position. eg. If we think 4b has AA, then that would mean UTG and UTG+1 don't have an A in their hand - the latter seeming very unlikely - I mean any good player has to surely have a hand like A2xx (maybe he has AKK2, AQQ2 or just A235ds) to be 3b an UTG opener in the first place.
Thus, it seems like 99% of the time what's happened is UTG has opened with maybe a high card only non Ax hand (like some high DS rundown) and both UTG+1 and the next player have A2xx where we have 43% equity. Chance of going bust is only 20% in that case.
Seems to me like this will be very +ev even accounting ICM in a DYM. And makes hand 1 a snap call too.
OTOH maybe UTG and UTG+1 are maniacs and the other guy is the only solid player who will always have AA.
In the OH8 DYM's ranges 'are usually' more polarised than OH8 MTT's (plenty exceptions obviously). Even at high stakes OH8 MTT's I have seen so many actions by players that leave you completely scratching your head trying to figure out what they see in their hands. I would still agree that in the MTT's both aces would usually be out but at least 1 opponent may have a totally random XXXX hand, you could on occassion easily see hands like KK23 QQ23 etc etc in the hands of one of these players or a random with 789t DS.
I think that makes working the equity calculations out slightly more problematic with 1 or even 2 players possibly with very wide ranges. I know you can put in versus top x% of hands. I would be interested to see how much difference putting a crazily wide range for 1 player in makes to the numbers as this would probably hit the part of the deck we would ideally be hoping to see on the board.
I also find that there can be bigger edges to exploit in OH8 MTT's than when compared to holdem. I would expect a solid but not exceptional OH8 MTT player to generally have much higher % roi than a solid but not exceptional NLHE MTT player. This obviously skews the % we are looking for to comfortably get it AIPF. When we get it AIPF we are losing this edge, the ability to pick up chips in certain spots with little risk or showdowns and most importantly IMO sneaking into freerolling or semi-freerolling spots where we can have very low risk shots at weak players stacks.
In short and IMO, I don't doubt the figures you quote for a second but in OH8 MTT's I think it is fine to fold several +EV spots if you have a suitable edge/stack over your opponents and sneak cheaply into a lot of less favourable spots and pick up freeroll/semi-freerolling spots with less risk.
In the DYM IMO the figures are a bit more interesting, as mentioned the ranges are 'a bit' more polarised and the numbers more relevant. I think edges would still impact calculations to a degree but obviously not the same extent as the most profitable DYM SNG players will be working with much finer margins than the most profitable OH8 MTT players.
I respect Ivan's view as to "they MUST have an Ace in their hand", & yes, they SHOULD have an Ace........
The game never ceases to surprise, & you'd be amazed at some of the stuff players turn up with.
It's simply beyond comprehension that we could get it in here without an Ace, but folks do strange things.....
Just over 4 weeks to go till Vegas! I am looking forward to this and have been slowly getting a little bankroll together for the trip. Have been taking care of stuff away from the poker tables but still playing some OH8 MTT's.
The OH8 DYM traffic dropped when Tikay left for Vegas and to be honest I think I am more profitable in OH8 MTT's anyway so I got on with playing those. There are not really enough here to play so have been playing these elsewhere which have added an extra few hundred $'s onto the bankroll. Will also try and mix in some more games on Sky over the coming weeks.
The WSOP event being played with Sky is the $1,111 NLHE event #69. This is actually one of the better structured games. The starting stacks are 10,000 chips with blind levels lasting 1 hour and starting at 25-50 so there is a little room to play. While out there I am hoping to play a reasonable amount of cash games. Would like to get in on Tikay's action at the 'Big O' (5 card PL OH8) cash tables at the Venetian and Rio. Probably at $1-$2 and if things go well maybe some forays into the $5 PL 'Big O' games. Would also like to play some $4-$8 Limit OH8 and some $2 NLHE at the Venetian. I broke about even at the $4-$8 Limit OH8 games last year but really ran quite poorly in most of the big pots I played so there is some unfinished business there
Hoping to catch up with a few friends in Vegas, some who stay there and some who will be out for the WSOP. As my dad is going on this trip as my +1 and he has never been to Vegas I am also hoping to hire a car, visit Lake Mead and some of the attractions off the strip (and those on it) and let him see what Vegas is like overall. He doesn't like the heat and sun so it could be interesting as we will be in one of the warmest spots on the globe slap bang in the middle of summer! He does love his poker though so I am sure he will have a blast.
Will try and give plenty of updates from Vegas when I go and post any interesting hand histories and a few pics etc.
As ever, thanks for reading and good luck on the tables!
Morning Marky.
1) Take your Dad up to Mount Charlston if he does not enjoy the heat - it is 30f cooler up there compared to the Strip, & is perfectly lovely, & the scenery up in the mountains is very similar to the West Highlands of Scotland. They even have snow on the mountain tops, even now, in June. It's a 35 minute drive from the Strip.
2) You MUST play the $1 $2 Big O Cash game @ Rio, you will need to run real bad not to make a profit. The game plays a bit odd - it is a $5 bring-in, but it is almost always button straddled to $10, (effectively, $1 chips don't play except for posting blinds) & that generally elicits 5 or 5 callers, so position & starting hand selection are VERY important. Most players are extremely passive, so if you can keep hitting that pot button pre, you will take them right out of their comfort zone. I honestly think you will beat that game handsomely, especially if you find a "good" table.
@Tikay, thanks for that.
I saw you mention Mount Charlston before, was that the monster butterfly place?. Has a perusal at the resort website and it looks lovely. Will probably take a trip up there and have breakfast one morning.
I guess the $10 BTN straddle is at the $5 PL Big O? Passive is always good
Hope you are having a nice time mate and GL in your upcoming games, hopefully some decent binkage for you soon.
No, the $10 button straddle is the $1-$2 game. Don't ask, don't argue, it's perfectly bizarre, but that's how it plays, as $1 chips don't play except for SB & BB, & any limpers have to limp for $5 (assuming it is not straddled, which is very rare).
It causes a lot of arguments, understandably, but once the button is placed in front of you, & before the deal takes place, just stick $10 on the Dealer Button, & that'll be allowed. The SB & BB now act first pre-flop, both usually call, plus 2 or 3 others. So when it gets back to us on the Button, we can usually make it $50 or $60, which soon sorts the men from the boys.
I dread to think how crazy it gets at the $5 Big O then lol. I know even at the $4-$8 OH8 limit games it got a bit crazy last year with double straddles and several folk having a bicker about it. I just tend to roll with whatever they want to do, watch what they are all up to and adapt to the dynamics as best as possible
Thanks again!
Edit: Found the lodge now. The setting looks amazing.
The so-called $1 $2 game has a max pull up of $500, & my personal discipline is to sit down with $1,000 in my pocket - $500 to buy-in, & one pull-up behind. It's too easy to sit down with a few thou behind, run bad, & before you know it, you are $2k or $3k down.
At $1,000 max, I don't play scared, but if the game gets bigger, I don't enjoy it, or play my best.
I think you'd be fine at the $5 game, though if you start with one bad night, then that spoils the trip - the worst place in the gaming world to be skinto is Vegas.
I will come up with some limits for myself, I usually only take whatever cash out of the hotel room that I am prepared to lose.
Quick update...
Haven't been updating as I haven't been playing very much. Had a lot of stuff going on away from the tables and decided to take on a few short term work committments away from the tables to get some extra pennies so I can play some cash games over in Vegas. Decided to squeeze a few games in tonight and played 6 OH8 DYM's and donked my way to 5 cashes out of the 6.
The games are not the same with Tikay away hoovering chips up in Vegas, obviously it is a harder job cashing in the games when he is here but the games just don't start regular enough when he is away. The £11 & £16.50 games do not really get going at all... Also quite a few tough tables, even at the lower levels, when I have looked lately. Weecheez playing a good few games when I have looked in and he is playing some brilliant poker!
Not long to go till the Vegas exploits start, under 2 weeks now! Reading all the WSOP updates and Tikay's blog updates have me itching to get over. Will be nice to meet some of the Sky players and staff and put names to faces. Will do a good few updates from over there win, lose or draw. I think the event we are playing had just over 4k entrants last year so I will try and play a bunch of tourneys online with a similar amount of entrants before I go just to try and get myself paced for that kind of field size. It isn't perfect preparation as online is obviously faster (as in more hands dealt) but it cannot do any harm.
Also hoping to fit at least a little drop more games in here over the next week and a half. Really enjoyed firing a few DYM's up tonight after a break for them, fealt more focused and seem to have had a bit of a reset which was needed.
Only 12 days and 11 hours & 56 minutes (not that I am counting) till I get to head off and see if I can scoop up a few chips up that Tikay might have missed and have a bit of fun!
Thanks for reading and hope you are all running golden on the tables.
Last little pre-vegas update...
Firstly well done to Tikay for cashing in the $3k PLO8. A bit tired today after staying up till after 4am on the virtual rail but was very happy to stay awake and rail for as long as he was still in there mixing it up.
Have got all work related committments out of the way now and mostly just chilling out until I set off to join in the Vegas fun. Leave the UK on Monday morning and am scheduled to arrive there on Monday evening. The initial get together with the players and Sky staff is only a couple of hours after I arrive so I am hoping firstly that there are no travel delays and secondly that I am not utterly jet lagged and ready to sleep for 15 hours... Would like to feel awake enough to chill with a few drinks and get to meet everyone properly.
Regarding the bankroll etc...
I would like more but that will probably always be the case lol. I have only recently got back into the poker so cannot expect to be going away with a 5 figure roll at this point. Have enough to have several stabs at the cash tables, probably a mix of limit OH8, NLHE and 'Big O'. Hopefully I can get off to a relatively solid start and give myself a bit more of a cushion, will see how it goes. Will hope to be even better prepared next year in this regard and ideally play a few WSOP events, time will tell if I manage this.
There are 3 starting day 1 flights for the event I am playing. I had planned to play the 3rd one on the 14th but will play the 2nd one starting at 11pm UK time on Wednesday the 13 of July instead as there is a $100 limit OH8 MTT downtown at 'The Orleans' I would like to play with my dad on the 14th.
Structure sheet for the WSOP event for anyone wanting to see it... http://www.wsop.com/pdfs/structuresheets/structure_1232_14981.pdf
I haven't been playing much online as have been tieing everything up here before I go. However last night I notice a micro MTT with a similar field size to what will be expected in the Vegas event. As I was staying up late following Tikay's exploits I figured I would open it for a bit of fun on the side. Mostly just to refresh in my head what stack size I need at what stages etc as I mostly play smaller field OH8 MTT's. There were 3497 entrants and I managed 10th place.
I would have been very happy with 10th but I didn't like my bust out hand. I opened A9s UTG 5 handed and the BB 3bet me. He was a very spewy player and I elected to just flat in position (think I had to just 4bet shove on him). Flop came 774 rainbow and he leads out. The way he was playing he would have just shoved all in preflop with almost all pairs and that flop was so so dry. I feel like I have fold equity and shove on him and he snap calls with 46o... Turn and river are bricks and I bubble the FT.
That pot would had had me going into the FT in great shape around 4th out of 9 with just under 2million chips. It was however a fun little practise session with a similar field size to the Vegas event. I am sure chipping up will be a bit harder in the $1,111 event but at least I know I have the pacing right as long as I can get the cards and some luck then who knows.
Will try and keep this regularly updated while I am away.
Again many thanks for the good wishes, really do appreciate it and hope that you are all running golden on the tables.
Also the very best of luck to all the other Sky players.
Thanks for reading!
Some quality advice in there I will try and follow to the letter
Obviously I understand you will have to start charging for such solid advice. I am sure it will be worth every penny.
Thanks very much for the good luck wishes. I would wish you good luck back for your games but I know you do not need luck. With your skills I am sure you can still crush everything regardless of silly concepts like luck
So strange I cannot remember the chat about Vegas winnings, my memory must be fading. I would have doubted it even happened but then you posted such compelling evidence!
Talk soon mate and cheers for the post.
Regards Mark (Soaking up golden advice from the fountain of knowledge known as AJ)