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The Thinking Man's / Woman's Game
Poker, to me, is a bit like art. I think I know how to paint. I think I know what a good picture looks like. Then someone goes and shows me a Picasso and I realise I know nothing.
Poker is like art in other ways. Some people will play in a certain style, which will get applauded. And others will another way and get berated. It’s whatever works for you. Just ask Ronaldo about Iceland…
This leads into a hand, where I thought about it, before I played. Naturally, it’s only a low stakes sit and go. Four players left. Blinds were 150/300. I had a stack of 650 and everyone else had around 1.5K.
I’m in the BB. Play folds around to the SB, who shoves.
I check my cards. 4-2 off. Instafold.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on there Bald Eagle*. Rewind.
Let’s just assess this a minute. Why would I fold?
It’s obvious isn’t it? The small blind has a decent hand and if I commit all my chips, I will be out. Game, set & match. Adios amigos. Bon Voyage. Le Brexit.
Maybe, I should use some of my rapidly dwindling timer bar to consider what ACTUALLY was happening.
Firstly. Range. What hand has the SB got? Let’s make it easy, by being a little generalistic.
Has he got a monster? If he had why would he go all-in. He wants all my chips. Letting me see a flop, might encourage me to put the remainder in. A shove just scares me off. I know he likes to squeeze, which makes this even more unlikely. So no monster (Big Pairs, AK).
Considering ‘middle’ value cards (KQ, QJ, Ax Suited, Smaller pairs) Would he go all-in with these? I still think he wouldn’t want me to fold. For that reason, I’m saying no.
What about rubbish? If he had complete rubbish (like me) he might fold or risk the extra chips to see a flop, but not risk a shove or he might just be giving me chips.
This only leaves hands between middle value and rubbish. Bearing in mind, I have 4-2 off, his hand is likely to be two overcards. Probably a K,Q or J with something. Maybe an A, but I think he would just call with one of those, as they are the single card with any real showdown value.
So, he has two overcards (doesn’t matter which). They could be suited or connected.
Now let’s look at the odds.
Against two overcards, I have around a 35% chance of winning.
Connected, I am down to 34%
Connected & Suited takes me down to 31%
Can you believe those odds?
Even if the villain has KQ suited, I still have over a 30% winning chance.
Rolling a dice, I would roughly only have to hit a 1 or a 2.
There is no reason to fold whatsoever.
If I fold now, I will have to win some chips within the next orbit. On those occasions, there will be players behind me, who will be free to call, once I have committed my stack.
This is highly likely to be my best chance to win before I go broke.
Looks a bit different now, doesn’t it?
Boy, that timer bar goes down quick…
As for the outcome, does that matter? I had a 30% chance. Three times out of ten, I would win. Seven times, I would lose.
What about the range? Did I at least get that right?
On this occasion, I did. He was holding Q7 off.
Benchmark.
*Remember Texan bars?
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