Jordz16 Season-Long football bets

jordz16

As a new season creeps nearer i thought I would create another thread for my season long football bets... I havent had time to scan through all the markets yet, and i am looking for as much input from other people as possible (note, only looking for season long bets, no matchday bets as i will set up a seperate thread for that) last year was a decent sucess, £550 staked and £1020 returns for a nice healthy profit. I will leave this open as a discussion thread before i finally confirm all my bets and stakes for the season... so far I have only found one bet but as i said i havent looked into the markets too much....

Nicky Ajose top scorer league 1 10/1 £25ew

finished 2nd top scorer last season while playing for lowly Swindon, now joined Charlton who i expect to challenge for the title, scored plenty in pre-season and is unlikely to be sold in January given he has only just signed for Charlton

TimmyRaRa

I love season long footy bets.

Glglglglgl

jordz16

when betting on football league i use a rough formula to get a rating for each team and then decide who is under/over priced and try and find bets from there. i wont give away the forumla i use but its fairly simple and focuses on 3 key areas i think are important, this is a table of the teams and my scores in order of price.

Newcastle 27

Norwich 26

Villa 26

Derby 24

Brighton 25

Wolves 18

Sheff W 24

Cardiff 18

Brentford 21

Leeds 22

Fulham 21

QPR 18

Ipswich 23

Reading 16

Huddersfield 18

Wigan 19

Notts F 18

Bristol C 20

Birmingham 19

Preston 21

Blackburn 18

Barnsley 17

Burton 17

Rotherham 18


judging by that its highly likely Ipswich are under valued so i may back them for a tophalf/top 6 finish. Wolves seem very short priced so i will very likey back them for a bottom half finish. I will post up my best either tomorrow or Wednesday,

68Trebor

 Wolves with the investment could either be a huge success or a complete disaster.

 I see the stand out bet at the moment being Dwight Gayle to be topscorer in Championship.
Will get plenty of chances and a proven finisher.

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

I love season long footy bets. Glglglglgl
Posted by TimmyRaRa

cheers Timmy feel free to contribute if you have any tips. 

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

 Wolves with the investment could either be a huge success or a complete disaster.  I see the stand out bet at the moment being Dwight Gayle to be topscorer in Championship. Will get plenty of chances and a proven finisher.
Posted by 68Trebor

yeah i completely agree about Wolves, if they invest wisely in proven players at that level then id  be more confident about them, but foreign managers do tend to struggle in the Championship especially in their first season.

As for Dwight gayle i agree he is a great goalscorer, and certainly could bag a load, the reason i wont back him myself is the price is incredibly short and its not guaranteed he will be their main striker for 40+ games this season. Hes never managed more than 25 appearences in a season so far.

jordz16

Decided on my Championship bets

Reading to be relegated 9/1 £50

Naismith top scorer 80/1 £25ew

both offer good value at those odds imo.

goldnballz

Huddersfield for a bottom half finish seems like a banker at 5/6 to me. They've finished 19th, 16th, 17th & 19th in the last 4 seasons & although they've made a few signings I expect them to struggle again.

Phantom66

I think PNE are underpriced, but still unlikely to make top 6.

Had a good consolidating season, finished strongly until the play-offs were out of reach. Have strenghtened and will have a fingers crossed fit again Jermaine Beckford who they missed last season.

Top half finish at 13/8 looks good value.

jordz16

Yep i agree Huddersfield will no doubt finish in the bottom half, its just too short of a price for me to back in a single although i may add them to a bottom half acca, with one team from each league...

Preston could very well sneak into the top half, i think there are 5 teams that will comfortably finish above them. the problem with the championship is that its so tight between 6th - 20th that its often a bit of a lottery which means you rarely get tempting odds available. 

jordz16

These are my calculations for League 1

League 1

Sheff U 22

Millwall 24

Charlton 23

Bradford 23

Mk dons 25

Bolton 21

Oxford 20

Coventry 22

Peterboro 18

Scunthorpe 23

Bristol R 18

Walsall 19

Northampton 18

Gillingham 24

Wimbledon 15

Rochdale 19

Southend 20

Bury 20

fleetwood 20

Chesterfield 20

Shrewsbury 18

port vale 17

Swindon 17

Oldham 18

Given the stats my bets are as follows.

MK dons promotion 4/1 £100

Gillingham top 6 4/1 £50

AFC wimbledon relegation 4/1 £100

reduced my stake on Gillingham as their 2 key players could still be sold, either way i believe they would reinvest the money well but it would still slightly reduce their chances.

Phantom66

Preston - Probably right about the lack of value for an expected mid table team.

I might have a punt on them for the handicap - I think they are capable of a challenge for a play-off spot and must be in with a shout of the handicap prize if they do.

Edit: Scrap that

Odds for promotion on sybet

                          Bristol 12/1 Forest 14/1 Birminham 16/1 Preston 22/1

Yet for handicap Bristol +24 Forest +26 Brimingham +26 Preston +26 ? Can't figure that one.

IDONKCALLU

sunderland to get relegated i think is a great bet at good odds 3/1 is huge imo as no alladyce now i think they will struggle to stay up

splashies

Good luck jordz.

Pompey should finally storm league 2, but I like the look of Notts County as decent value. Think you can still get 25/1. They looked decent when they came to us towards the end of last season and have made plenty of decent signings in the summer. Im surprised they are so long given that they must have one of the higher wage bills in the league.

League 1 I'm going for Charlton, even though their fans are boycotting games due to the owners. They have splashed the cash this summer on the likes of Ajose and Ricky Holmes. Holmes is the best lower league player I've seen since the days of a young Jermain Defoe on loan at Bournemouth. Hope Wilder does well at Sheff Utd, but it's a big ask for them to hit the ground running, he usually takes a season to get things together.

As for Northampton. anything could happen. Should be a fun and probably inconsistent season.

Championship, I'm going to follow Tiger's tip of Sheffield Weds.

For the Prem, it's Pep for me.

gl

jordz16

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

Good luck jordz. Pompey should finally storm league 2, but I like the look of Notts County as decent value. Think you can still get 25/1. They looked decent when they came to us towards the end of last season and have made plenty of decent signings in the summer. Im surprised they are so long given that they must have one of the higher wage bills in the league. League 1 I'm going for Charlton, even though their fans are boycotting games due to the owners. They have splashed the cash this summer on the likes of Ajose and Ricky Holmes. Holmes is the best lower league player I've seen since the days of a young Jermain Defoe on loan at Bournemouth. Hope Wilder does well at Sheff Utd, but it's a big ask for them to hit the ground running, he usually takes a season to get things together. As for Northampton. anything could happen. Should be a fun and probably inconsistent season. Championship, I'm going to follow Tiger's tip of Sheffield Weds. For the Prem, it's Pep for me. gl
Posted by splashies

In Alex Revell and Matt Taylor you have two of the best pros in the league, and a good dressing room goes along way at the lower levels, id expect you to stay up this year and push for a top 6 next season. 

jordz16

League 2

Portsmouth 26

Doncaster 24

Luton 20

Leyton O 21

Plymouth 24

Cambridge 21

Carlisle 25

Blackpool 23

Colchester 21

Cheltenham 21

Notts C 22

Wycombe 21

Grimsby 16

Accrington 20

Mansfield 18

Exeter 19

Crewe 21

Barnet 21

Hartlepool 20

Yeovil 18

Stevenage 18

Crawley town 17

Newport 18

Morecombe 17

My league 1 calculations generally agree with the bookies apart from a couple of small anomolies, I think Portsmouth are worthy favs but too short for me to punt on. So i have gone for Carslile for promotion at 4/1 Grimsby look great odds to be relegates at 16/1 and going along with my Carlisle angle I have had Miller for ew top scorer at 33/1


Carlisle promotion 4/1 £100

Grimsby relegation 16/1 £100

Miller Top scorer 33/1 ew £22 (sky wouldnt allow any bigger bets for some reason)

jordz16

Probably my last 2 FL bets.

Ipswich, Gillingham, Carlisle top half. 5/1 £100

Cardiff Peterborough, Grimsby bottom half 7/1 £100

splashies

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

Probably my last 2 FL bets. Ipswich, Gillingham, Carlisle top half. 5/1 £100 Cardiff Peterborough, Grimsby bottom half 7/1 £100
Posted by jordz16

I love you

#scum

jordz16

As I have backed Gillingham to do well again this year I have to Back Emmanuel-Thomas now they have signed him on loan for the season, i remember watching him in league one for Bristol C and he was a beast!.

Emmanuel-Thomas top scorer 25/1 £25ew

jordz16

Scottish Prem, 

I really dont know enough about the sides to produce many angles but Rangers at 7/2 look a good price, I think they will be far more determined for the title than Celtic will be, and in Warburton they have an impressive manager

for t/s Griffiths and Waghorn will both be up there barring injury but are tiny prices, im going to go for Tony Watt, he looked decent in the Championship last year and should score for fun against a few sides.

Rangers for the title 7/2 £100

Watt Top Scorer 40/1 £25ew

Brrrrrrr

Interesting read, good luck with the bets!

jordz16

Another final one

Wood top scorer 50/1 £25ew

I expect Leeds could do very well and if he keeps the loan striker role he should score plenty, plus he tends to take pens too.

jordz16

My first bet for the Prem is Mkhitaryan for player of the year 40/1

he won Players player of the year in Germany last year, banged in 20+ goals and got miles more assists than anyone else in Germany, This will be the 4th country he has played in so Im sure he wont need time to settle, 

40/1 looks too big of a price to turn down.

£100 Miky 40/1 

Gaz680

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

Decided on my Championship bets Reading to be relegated 9/1 £50 Naismith top scorer 80/1 £25ew both offer good value at those odds imo.
Posted by jordz16

reading are going to be a suprise package this year relegated? no chance my mums a lifelong wolves fan shes predicting troubled times ahead first few results havent been good my big tip this years goingto be millwall i predicted leicester last year healthy return of a fiver championships always soo tight any team can win home or away look at fullham for a good run 

jordz16

Premier league

Man City  28

Man Utd   29

Arsenal   26

Chelsea   24

Liverpool 26

Spurs     26

Leicester 25

West Ham  25

Everton   23

Saints    22

Stoke     23

Palace    22

Swansea   19

Sunderlnd 21

Watford   20

Bournemth 21

Burnley   18

Hull      13

Boro      22 

West Brom 18


finally got round to doing my Prem bets

Callum Wilson top scorer 50/1  £37.50ew I expect Bournemouth to be very open and score lots of goals, and Wilson should start every game and also score 5+ pens which will be a bonus.

Burnley/Hull/West brom relegation treble. 28/1 £25 Hull look certs, Burnley have not invested well enough, and same goes for West brom, so definitely worth a small punt at the price

Hull city lowest scorers 5/1  £100  they looked doomed and this is the best angle i can find to profit from that.

Karanka manager of the year 66/1 £25  I fancy Middlesboro to do well, wouldnt be surprised if they made the top 10, if they do that and get a cup run then there is no reason why he couldnt win manager of the year.

unknown_username

not going to be great odds but dagenham and redbridge are looking good plus have a takeover bid by a local millionare on the cards.

assabalonga for top scorer aswell.

waller02

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

League 2 Portsmouth 26 Doncaster 24 Luton 20 Leyton O 21 Plymouth 24 Cambridge 21 Carlisle 25 Blackpool 23 Colchester 21 Cheltenham 21 Notts C 22 Wycombe 21 Grimsby 16 Accrington 20 Mansfield 18 Exeter 19 Crewe 21 Barnet 21 Hartlepool 20 Yeovil 18 Stevenage 18 Crawley town 17 Newport 18 Morecombe 17 My league 1 calculations generally agree with the bookies apart from a couple of small anomolies, I think Portsmouth are worthy favs but too short for me to punt on. So i have gone for Carslile for promotion at 4/1 Grimsby look great odds to be relegates at 16/1 and going along with my Carlisle angle I have had Miller for ew top scorer at 33/1 Carlisle promotion 4/1 £100 Grimsby relegation 16/1 £100 Miller Top scorer 33/1 ew £22 (sky wouldnt allow any bigger bets for some reason)
Posted by jordz16

£100 down the pan

waller02

In Response to Re: Jordz16 Season-Long football bets:

Probably my last 2 FL bets. Ipswich, Gillingham, Carlisle top half. 5/1 £100 Cardiff Peterborough, Grimsby bottom half 7/1 £100
Posted by jordz16

Another £100 down the pan.

Gl with all your other bets though!

jordz16

As its the start of a new seaon i thought id do a recap of how my bets are doing

Nicky Ajose top scorer £50ew 10/1   now 10/1

Carlisle Promotion £100 4/1  now 9/4

Reading Relegation £50 9/1   now 8/1

MK dons promotion £100 4/1  now 9/4

Gillingham top 6 £50 4/1   now 9/4

Gillingham promotion £100 5/1  now 6/1

AFC wimbledon relegation £100 4/1  now 9/4

Naismith top scorer £25ew 80/1  now 66/1

Grimsby relegation £100 16/1  now 16/1

Shaun Miller top scorer £22ew 33/1  now 33/1

Ips, Gil, Carl, top half £100 5/1 now 7/2

Card, Peter, Grim, bottom half £100 7/1  now 8/1

JET top scorer £25ew 25/1  now 25/1 

Rangers league title £100 7/2  now 9/2

Watt Top scorer £25/1ew 40/1  now 33/1

Wood top scorer £25/1 50/1  now 33/1

Mkhitaryn Player of the year  £50 33/1  now 33/1

Wilson top scorer £37.50ew 50/1  now 50/1

Hull/Westbrom/Burnley relegation £25 28/1  now 28/1

Hull city lowest scorers £100 5/1 now 5/1  

Karanka manager of the year £25 100/1  now 50/1

Ipswich top 6 £50 6/1  now 4/1 

Gillingham win league 1 £40 20/1   now 18/1

Im very happy so far as 12 of the bets I have placed have now dropped in price

8 of my bets have remained the same price

and just 3 of my best have drifted in price.

Its early days so i will try and update this again next month

jordz16

Added 2 more over the weekend

Spurs 18/1 for the prem £50 (very painful)

Scunthorpe 8/1 for L1 title £50

jordz16

End of another month, so time for another update

Nicky Ajose top scorer 10/1 £50 ew  now 33/1

Carlisle Promotion 4/1 £100  now 6/5

Reading Relegation 9/1 £50  now 16/1

MK dons promotion 4/1 £100  now 5/1

Gillingham top 6 4/1 £50  now 7/2

Gillingham promotion 5/1 £100  now 10/1

AFC wimbledon relegation 4/1 £100  now 4/1

Naismith top scorer 80/1 £25ew  now 100/1

Grimsby relegation 16/1 £100  now 33/1

Shaun Miller top scorer 33/1 £22ew  now 66/1

Ips, Gil, Carl, top half 5/1 £100 now 4/1

Card, Peter, Grim, bottom half 7/1 £100  now 4/1

JET top scorer £25ew 25/1   now 16/1

Rangers league title 7/2 £100  now 12/1

Watt Top scorer £25ew 40/1  now 50/1

Wood top scorer 50/1 £25ew  now 25/1

Mkhitaryn Player of the year 33/1 £50   now 66/1

Wilson top scorer 50/1 £37.50 ew  now 100/1

Hull/Westbrom/Burnley relegation 28/1 £25  now 40/1

Hull city lowest scorers 5/1 £100  now 7/2

Karanka manager of the year 100/1 £25 now 66/1

Ipswich top 6 6/1 £50  now 9/1

Gillingham win league 1 20/1 £40  now 40/1

Yeovil relegation 9/2 £50  now 7/2

Cardiff relegation 13/2  £50  now 9/4

Scunthrorpe league 1 title 8/1 £50  now 3/1

Spurs league title 18/1 £50 now 9/1

Plymouth league 2 title 7/1 £50  now 5/1

wimbledon finish bottom 14/1 £50  now 20/1

Cardiff finish bottom 16/1 £50  now 10/1

Ayew top scorer 50/1 £25ew  now 33/1

Overall its been a poor month with 15 of my bets shortening in price, and 15 bets lengthening while 2 bets have remained as placed... still looking positive as just 2-3 winning bets could be needed to make it a profitable year, Id be surprised if i add more than 1 or 2 more bets before the end of the season as the further the season progresses the chances of finding edges does decrease.