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Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
tongting | Small blind | 2000.00 | 2000.00 | 34702.00 | |
JACOBAAA | Big blind | 4000.00 | 6000.00 | 32721.00 | |
Your hole cards |
| ||||
cpfc_2010 | Raise | 8000.00 | 14000.00 | 90312.00 | |
goodwin406 | Fold | ||||
tongting | Fold | ||||
JACOBAAA | Call | 4000.00 | 18000.00 | 28721.00 | |
Flop | |||||
| |||||
JACOBAAA | Check | ||||
cpfc_2010 | Bet | 9000.00 | 27000.00 | 81312.00 | |
JACOBAAA | Call | 9000.00 | 36000.00 | 19721.00 | |
Turn | |||||
| |||||
JACOBAAA | Check | ||||
cpfc_2010 | Bet | 24000.00 | 60000.00 | 57312.00 | |
JACOBAAA | All-in | 19721.00 | 79721.00 | 0.00 | |
cpfc_2010 | Unmatched bet | 4279.00 | 75442.00 | 61591.00 | |
JACOBAAA | Show |
| |||
cpfc_2010 | Show |
| |||
River | |||||
| |||||
cpfc_2010 | Win | Pair of Kings | 75442.00 | 137033.00 |
Comments
Hi Jacob,
I'm a bit poo at NLH, but nobody else has replied, so I'll have a bash.
As it turns out, unless you fold pre flop or fold 2nd pair on the flop to a guy who is never folding top pair & 4 to the flush, you have to go busto here.
Pre-flop? Well you can raise, call or fold. Calling, arguably, might be the worst of the three. It's so hard to play these sort of hands out of position. If you shove on him pre, he may well call anyway as he has a chunky stack.
We played our hand sort of backwards, check calling in the hope he had air. As a general rule, we win by being the aggressor, not the passive defender. And it is MUCH easier to play these marginal in position.
I'd also "opponent select" when taking a player on. My limited knowledge of the Villain suggests he is ultra aggro, so you were in a bit of a bad spot here. When I'm a bit thin, I try to pick on the weaker, more submissive players & try to avoid Team Aggro.
cpfc_2010 wrote......
"Please ignore the ultra aggro..... tikay should unfortunately know better at his age"
My description was incorrect, misleading, quite improper, economical with the truth, and an inexactitude.
I unreservedly apologise.
I should have written - super uber aggro of course.
it hits mid pair+ or strong draw on 53% of flops [add an extra few % points for bottom pairs and gutshots]
the price you are getting is so good for a had that figures to capture a hefty chuck of the post flop pot.
from a pure chip EV point of view it isnt even close. folding will be horrible.
there maybe other considerations, but unless ICM / laddering is a big factor flatting is just so good
we are short which hurts the EV of draws, but at this depth we can pretty much know when to go with our hand and posiitional edge for the button is reduced so the effect is mitigated.
we have 1bb invested, there is a SB of dead money in the pot and btn minraises.
this means we are calling 1bb to create a pot of 4.5bb
we only need to win back that 1bb for calling to be breakeven compared to folding.
this means we only need to capture 22% of the pot on average to break even (1/(1+3.5))
even if we capture only 40% of the pot
ev(flat) = (cf*p)-c
where
cf = capture factor
p = pot
c = call
plugging in numbers
.4*4.5-1 =
0.8
so calling is .8bb better than folding. which is huge.
note that folding here loses 1bb from start of hand. if we take our EV(flat) from start of hand then it means we lose 0.2bb from start of hand (still 0.8bb better than folding, note) - which is where maybe you got your slightly -EV from.
the fact we have a BB invested in the hand means we can be -EV from start of hand and still be profitable from decision point. as long as you are consistent with your comaprisons and frame of reference then you will be ok.
Pot odds I agree are a poor metric for deciding when to flat.
Capture factor is a lovely tool to use, as it takes into account future streets, betting etc.
But there are a number of ways of estimating capture factor.
You can look through database / gto solutions to see what % of the flop pot you capture with a hand
Or to increase sample size look at how draws, top pair, 2 pair, gutshots etc do. Then use a program like flopzilla to see how many of those hands a hand flops and tally up the numbers. Then adjust for stack size, position, skill level of villain, villains range etc.
There is some hand waving, but there is in any model. Captur factor is pretty robust once you do the leg work, and is really adaptable and useful in many spots.
Will Tipton writes pretty extensively in his books and also in some of his 2+2 posts (he posts under the name yaqh)