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Help needed please.

edited August 2016 in Tournament Strategy
The following hand is from the 7pm BH last 4 left. I know i played this hand wrong completely and i am very annoyed about it now but would like some advice on where i played it wrong and how. Thankyou.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
tongtingSmall blind 2000.002000.0034702.00
JACOBAAABig blind 4000.006000.0032721.00
 Your hole cards
  • J
  • 10
   
cpfc_2010Raise 8000.0014000.0090312.00
goodwin406Fold    
tongtingFold    
JACOBAAACall 4000.0018000.0028721.00
Flop
  
  • K
  • 10
  • 7
   
JACOBAAACheck    
cpfc_2010Bet 9000.0027000.0081312.00
JACOBAAACall 9000.0036000.0019721.00
Turn
  
  • 4
   
JACOBAAACheck    
cpfc_2010Bet 24000.0060000.0057312.00
JACOBAAAAll-in 19721.0079721.000.00
cpfc_2010Unmatched bet 4279.0075442.0061591.00
JACOBAAAShow
  • J
  • 10
   
cpfc_2010Show
  • 9
  • K
   
River
  
  • 5
   
cpfc_2010WinPair of Kings75442.00 137033.00

Comments

  • edited August 2016


    Hi Jacob,

    I'm a bit poo at NLH, but nobody else has replied, so I'll have a bash.

    As it turns out, unless you fold pre flop or fold 2nd pair on the flop to a guy who is never folding top pair & 4 to the flush, you have to go busto here.  

    Pre-flop? Well you can raise, call or fold. Calling, arguably, might be the worst of the three. It's so hard to play these sort of hands out of position. If you shove on him pre, he may well call anyway as he has a chunky stack. 
     
    We played our hand sort of backwards, check calling in the hope he had air. As a general rule, we win by being the aggressor, not the passive defender. And it is MUCH easier to play these marginal in position. 

    I'd also "opponent select" when taking a player on. My limited knowledge of the Villain suggests he is ultra aggro, so you were in a bit of a bad spot here. When I'm a bit thin, I try to pick on the weaker, more submissive players & try to avoid Team Aggro.    
     
  • edited August 2016
    I did see this but was struggling to construct an answer as it's a pretty tricky spot I think. Knowing the stack size of the button would help a bit! Probably a way to work it out but I'm too stupid.

    I know the villain reasonably well so it skews any answer, but I think there is a slim chance we can get a shove through pre. But I'm talking as slim as me, so wafer thin. Couple that wafer thin fold equity with a good hand that should be live and can improve many ways, I think I lean towards 3bet jamming.

    Peeling to see that flop kinda seals your fate, esp vs Palace who is a massive fish. Wouldn't be laying down 22nd pair vs him, let alone 2nd pair good kicker.

    If button is on fumes then there is maybe an argument to pass and ladder, but it's JTs and the reason we play poker.
  • edited August 2016
    Hi Jacob

    You find yourself if a an unfortunate spot in this hand.  Jack ten suited is a very playable hand but unfortunately once I have raised I'm very unlikely to fold to a sub 10bb shove especially in a bounty hunter. 

    Calling a raise with your stack as tikay alluded to is probably the worst available option, so I personally prefer the fold pre flop .

    Please ignore the "ultra aggro" and"massive fish" comments tikay should unfortunately know better at his age and Jon is just an attention seeking egomaniac. 

  • edited August 2016

    cpfc_2010 wrote......

    "Please ignore the ultra aggro..... tikay should unfortunately know better at his age"

    My description was incorrect, misleading, quite improper, economical with the truth, and an inexactitude.

    I unreservedly apologise.

    I should have written - super uber aggro of course.
     
  • edited August 2016
    I wouldnt spend vast amounts concerning yourself with this hand and instead would look at how you got down to 8bb as I think that would benefit you more. 
  • edited August 2016
    I think this is an awkward spot. I don't think we have any fold equity pre so if we jam we are just running it with his opening range. (Which against CPFC's range we probably have okay equity but no fold equity preflop)
    Folding with a hand with such good equity vs his opening range, despite our small stack size is a little tight for my liking.
     My preferred play would be to peel with the intention of check shoving on the flop with any draw or pair. (unless its like a gutshot on AKx or something)
  • edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: Help needed please.:
    I wouldnt spend vast amounts concerning yourself with this hand and instead would look at how you got down to 8bb as I think that would benefit you more. 
    Posted by MattBates
    The above is clearly the best advice in this thread.
  • edited August 2016
    10j suited plays well as a call, even with sub 10 bigs. Jamming is good too, we still have fold equity versus villian. 

    Folding would be v bad pre. 

    As Matt said try and avoid blinding down, of course you might have just lost a hand in the last orbit. 

    As played once we get to the flop, decide on the flop if you are going with the hand or folding. 

  • edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: Help needed please.:
    I think this is an awkward spot. I don't think we have any fold equity pre so if we jam we are just running it with his opening range. (Which against CPFC's range we probably have okay equity but no fold equity preflop) Folding with a hand with such good equity vs his opening range, despite our small stack size is a little tight for my liking.  My preferred play would be to peel with the intention of check shoving on the flop with any draw or pair. (unless its like a gutshot on AKx or something)
    Posted by FeelGroggy
    Nice post agree with all of this.  I think calling here is better than shoving as we have no fold equity preflop and were getting a great price with a hand were we can flop a pair or a draw and get it in.
  • edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: Help needed please.:
    My preferred play would be to peel with the intention of check shoving on the flop with any draw or pair. (unless its like a gutshot on AKx or something)
    Posted by FeelGroggy
    This.
  • edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: Help needed please.:
    10j suited plays well as a call, even with sub 10 bigs. Jamming is good too, we still have fold equity versus villian.  Folding would be v bad pre.  As Matt said try and avoid blinding down, of course you might have just lost a hand in the last orbit.  As played once we get to the flop, decide on the flop if you are going with the hand or folding. 
    Posted by LARSON7
    How would folding pre be very bad? I doubt calling or jamming are massively +EV

    Jam seems meh, very little fold equity and only an ok hand

    Calling to c/r, Im not so sure, our draws wont have much fe giving villain nearly 3/1.

    Obv it depends on villains and buttons stack, but I dont think folding and shoving atc first pot you get to open would be a bad option. Much prefer openshoving than jamming over raise from <10bb stack 
  • edited August 2016
    JTs is just so easy to play and we arent worried about postiional edge so much this shallow

    it hits mid pair+ or strong draw on 53% of flops [add an extra few % points for bottom pairs and gutshots]

    the price you are getting is so good for a had that figures to capture a hefty chuck of the post flop pot.

    from a pure chip EV point of view it isnt even close. folding will be horrible.

    there maybe other considerations, but unless ICM / laddering is a big factor flatting is just so good
  • edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: Help needed please.:
    JTs is just so easy to play and we arent worried about postiional edge so much this shallow it hits mid pair+ or strong draw on 53% of flops [add an extra few % points for bottom pairs and gutshots] the price you are getting is so good for a had that figures to capture a hefty chuck of the post flop pot. from a pure chip EV point of view it isnt even close. folding will be horrible. there maybe other considerations, but unless ICM / laddering is a big factor flatting is just so good
    Posted by TeddyBloat

    Yeah postflop pretty simple with spr <2:1

    Didnt realise we hit that much

    I did a quick chip EV calc and it came out marginally -EV. Some of my assumptions may be incorrect, also possible I made a mistake in my calcs.

    ICM is definitely going to be a factor at this stage o tournament
  • edited August 2016
    deeper stacked JTs generally captures around 50% of the post flop pot.

    we are short which hurts the EV of draws, but at this depth we can pretty much know when to go with our hand and posiitional edge for the button is reduced so the effect is mitigated.

    we have 1bb invested, there is a SB of dead money in the pot and btn minraises.

    this means we are calling 1bb to create a pot of 4.5bb

    we only need to win back that 1bb for calling to be breakeven compared to folding.

    this means we only need to capture 22% of the pot on average to break even (1/(1+3.5))

    even if we capture only 40% of the pot

    ev(flat) = (cf*p)-c

    where

    cf = capture factor

    p = pot

    c = call

    plugging in numbers

    .4*4.5-1 =

    0.8

    so calling is .8bb better than folding. which is huge.

    note that folding here loses 1bb from start of hand. if we take our EV(flat) from start of hand then it means we lose 0.2bb from start of hand (still 0.8bb better than folding, note) - which is where maybe you got your slightly -EV from.

    the fact we have a BB invested in the hand means we can be -EV from start of hand and still be profitable from decision point. as long as you are consistent with your comaprisons and frame of reference then you will be ok.

  • edited August 2016
    Dont have time to get into this in detail right now

    I understand your calc and obv our direct pot odds are great. I just dont think direct pot odds are most important consideration with money behind

    I'd say there are probably problems with assumptions I made in my calc, but its a totally different calc than you did there. Maybe calling is best play, but Id say its pretty close. 
  • edited August 2016
    It not direct pot odds, I'm using but rather what % of the pot we figure to capture,  and JTs is a hand that captures a lot of the pot. Hence from a pure chip EV pov flatting >> folding.

    Pot odds I agree are a poor metric for deciding when to flat.

    Capture factor is a lovely tool to use, as it takes into account future streets, betting etc.
  • edited August 2016
    What exactly is capture factor? How is it calculated? Seems like some effort at calculating EV thru streets rather than preflop equity from what i can get on google.

    If it is seems like there is a massive amount of variables involved, not sure how you can just say its x%
  • edited August 2016
    I'm on airport WiFi so can't go into detail.

    But there are a number of ways of estimating capture factor.

    You can look through database / gto  solutions to see what % of the flop pot you capture with a hand

    Or to increase sample size look at how draws, top pair, 2 pair, gutshots etc do. Then use a program like flopzilla to see how many of those hands  a hand flops and tally up the numbers. Then adjust for stack size, position, skill level of villain, villains range etc.

    There is some hand waving, but there is in any model. Captur factor is pretty robust once you do the leg work, and is really adaptable and useful in many spots.

    Will Tipton writes pretty extensively in his books and also in some of his 2+2 posts (he posts under the name yaqh)
  • edited August 2016
    In Response to Re: Help needed please.:
    I'm on airport WiFi so can't go into detail. But there are a number of ways of estimating capture factor. You can look through database / gto  solutions to see what % of the flop pot you capture with a hand Or to increase sample size look at how draws, top pair, 2 pair, gutshots etc do. Then use a program like flopzilla to see how many of those hands  a hand flops and tally up the numbers. Then adjust for stack size, position, skill level of villain, villains range etc. There is some hand waving, but there is in any model. Captur factor is pretty robust once you do the leg work, and is really adaptable and useful in many spots. Will Tipton writes pretty extensively in his books and also in some of his 2+2 posts (he posts under the name yaqh)
    Posted by TeddyBloat
    Who are you and what have you done with Teddy!
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