Making the most +EV horse bets. Advice needed.

devil_tear

So today I saw on offer on SkyBet saying they would refund your bet if it placed in the top 3 at the 2:15 at Newmarket. My poker brain got working and figured this was a pretty +EV spot to bet. So after doing some research I bet and ended up winning making a £300 profit.

I was wondering how often these offers run and what people think are the most +EV races/ meetings of the year?

ANd also the best tipster blogs? I got mine from sporting life.

goldnballz

skybet often run this offer for the big C4 meetings. V well done on the win. 

I've heard Mr Channing runs a pretty cool tipping site.....

devil_tear

In Response to Re: Making the most +EV horse bets. Advice needed.:

skybet often run this offer for the big C4 meetings. V well done on the win.  I've heard Mr Channing runs a pretty cool tipping site.....
Posted by goldnballz

Ok thanks for the heads up!

Phantom66

Offer is on today for the 1:35 Newmarket.

I have gone for Mrs Danvers to win (and money back if 2nd or 3rd) and Afandem E/W.

No horse racing knowledge but like you say seems pretty +EV

Phantom66

Romped it at 9/4 :-)

Didnt get the place though and thinking about it wasnt much point backing a 9/2 shot e/w.

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: Making the most +EV horse bets. Advice needed.:

Offer is on today for the 1:35 Newmarket. I have gone for Mrs Danvers to win (and money back if 2nd or 3rd) and Afandem E/W. No horse racing knowledge but like you say seems pretty +EV
Posted by Phantom66

Hi Phantom

Just a little HU on this offer..... It only applies to the first horse you back.

With regards to backing shortish priced horses each way, some Professional punters do back horses at 5/1 and below if they are confident the horse will finish in the first 3 places(in races with 8 - 15 runners in) because they will get all or most of their money back(depending on the odds) if the horse finishes 2nd or 3rd and therefore it becomes a bet to nothing (a chance of a win and money back if it finishes 2nd or 3rd) The problem is when the horse (or whatever you are betting on) finishes 4th or worse (in races of 8 - 15runners) where you will lose both parts of the bet, as you did sadly on Afandem. Obviously the nearer to 8 runners(the 'dead 8' as its known) in a race, the more the odds are in your favour for each way betting purposes.

Hope this helps and the Best of Luck

 

Phantom66

Thanks Misty.

I knew it was money back on 1st horse only so I got that bit right.

I read up on the form and tipsters and there didnt seem much reason to oppose the clear favourite and certainly seemed nailed on for a top three finish so happily put up some cash with the money back insurance. Seemed to have its run blocked early on but the way it charged past up the slope certainly looks a prospect.

I also thought the clear 2nd fav was a good option for a saver bet, good chance of placing and if it did win I would also hopefully get my money back on Mrs danvers. It came 4th though.

I had better not be too results oriented, it's not because it lost is was a bad bet, I just realised the odds of 9/4 were too short. Like you say 5/1 I at least get my money back for a place on that bet alone.

I noticed alot of Neils tips were on decent odds e/w bets in small fields when he tipped on the forum and he has a pretty impressive track record in the long run so I guess it makes sense.

I am not planning to bet much on the horses though, I just dont have enough knowledge about it. I will keep an eye on the money backs though. I noticed it was on for yesterday but I didnt touch it because it was a very closely matched handicap with 4 horses 8/1-9/1 when I looked.