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NBA Season Spread Betting

JMcCririckJMcCririck
edited November 2016 in Betting Chat
Going to be posting all my NBA bets here throughout the season.
The first games start tonight unfortunately I have not been watching the preseason friendlies although these aren't generally a good indicator anyway as bench players are played more often.
I did reasonably well last season up about 30 points in all betting for quality more than quantity.
I wasn't going to bet tonight and just watch the games but after looking at the games I think the New York Knicks have a good shot at covering the spread vs the Cavs as long as Anthony and Rose can play reasonably well as the supporting cast they have this season seems to be up to scratch which they didn't have in previous seasons and got blown out quite often.
Noah should be able to give Thompson problems on hustle plays for the ball and rebounding in general which thompson usually gets a lot of offensive rebounds, hopefully Noah can clean those up.
Courtney Lee is a good shooter and Porzingas should do well vs Kevin Love.
Rose should do ok although hes sort of an unknown he only played 1 preseason game and has never been the same since his injurys all of them years ago when he used to be a potential MVP each season but as long as he can reasonably defend Irving and get some assists that should be good enough.
Anthony can be a liability when they go behind just hoisting up bricks all game and not defending but they have a better team this year and he should be trying more this time around to get one up on his rival Lebron James.
That being said my first bet of the season is New York Knicks +9.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers lets win some money!

One thing should be noted is I bet on matchbook.com so I get better odds most of the time only paying 1-2% juice.
I got the Knicks +9.5 @ 1.981 instead of the standard 1.91 at most bookmakers.

Knicks closing line +9 (LOSS 117-88) +0.5

YTD 0-1 (-1.00)



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Comments

  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    Well after looking at the lineups this morning and the games on offer I have come up with 2 games I actually like.
    (watch more games didnt last long) but I did watch all last season and I have seen all these players play before just some are in new teams its just figuring out if they fit well etc.
    I get the line up information here http://www.rotowire.com/basketball/nba_lineups.htm

    Not going to write up on the teams and why I am betting as it takes a bit of time but my bets are :

    Orlando magic -4 vs Miami Heat [1.961]
    Minnesota Timberwolves +2 @ Memphis Grizzlies (Trying to match at 1.944)

    Edit: Ok so the line moved on Timberwolves. Matched at 1.98 +1.5 gl
    Also adding Boston Celtics -12.5 vs Brooklyn Nets  @ 2.06 
    and Sacremento Kings +3 @ Phoenix Suns @ 1.952

    Magic closing line -3.5 (LOSS 96-108) -0.5
    Celtics closing line -11.5 (LOSS 122-117) -1.0
    Timberwolves closing line -1 (LOSS 98-102) +2.5
    Kings closing line +2.5 (WON 113-94) +0.5

    YTD 1-4 (-3.058)


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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    In Response to Re: NBA Season Spread Betting:
    I bet in running on the points total .last night weighed in with over 200•5. In cavs v knicks game.Far more intersting than taking an overview beforehand.
    Posted by chilling
    You get juiced heavy in the inplay betting 15% i think it is hard to turn a profit at that.
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    San Antonio Spurs -8.5 @ Sacramento kings [2.04]

    Closing line -8.0 (LOSS 102-94) [-0.5]

    Missed out on a push if I had waited for the line to move down .5 for less price :/

    YTD 1-5 (-4.06)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    Dallas Mavericks -1.5 vs Houston Rockets [1.98] Dirk Nowitzki is now a game time decision and line is +0/+1 hope he plays.

    Indiana Pacers -6.5 @ Brooklyn Nets [2.04] 

    LA Lakers +9.5 @ Utah Jazz [1.961]

    OKC -9 vs Phoenix Suns [2.02]

    Detroit Pistions -3.5 vs Orlando Magic [1.943]

    Adding in Raptors +3 vs Cavs [1.97]


    Mavs closing line +1 (LOSS 98-106) -2.5 - Nowitzski DNP
    Pacers closing line +6 (LOSS 94-103) -0.5
    Lakers closing line +9 (WON 89-96) +0.5
    OKC closing line -8.5 (LOSS 113-110) -0.5
    Detroit closing line -3.5 (WON 108-82) 0.0
    Raptors closing line +2.5 (PUSH 91-94) +0.5

    YTD 3-8-1 (-5.20)


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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    Hawks -7.5 @ 76ers [1.99]
    Nuggets -2 vs Blazers [1.98]
    Hornets +2 vs Celtics [1.952]
    Knicks -1.5 vs Grizzlies [1.98]
    Kings +1.5 vs TWolves [1.97]
    Cavs -11 vs Magic [1.98]
    Bucks -8 vs Nets [2.00]

    Hawks closing line -7.5 (WON 104-72) 0.00
    Knicks closing line -3.0 (WON 111-104) +1.5
    Hornets closing line +2.5 (LOSS 98-104) -0.5
    Cavs closing line -11.5 (LOSS 105-99) +0.5
    Nuggets closing line +1.5 (LOSS 113-115) -3.5
    Bucks closing line -8.0 (LOSS 110-108) 0.00
    Kings closing line +1.5 (WON 106-103) 0.00


    YTD 6-12-1 (-6.32)

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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    Clippers -7.0 vs Jazz 1.99
    Wizards -2 @ Grizzlies 1.943

    Clippers closing line -7.5 (WON 88-75) +0.5
    Wizards closing line -3.0 (LOSS 103-112) +1.0

    YTD 7-13-1 (-6.35)

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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Hawks -7 vs Kings 2.05
    Raptors ML vs Nuggets 1.322 x2units


    Hawks closing line -7 (WON 106-95) 0.0
    Raptors ML (WON 105-102) 

    YTD  PS 8-13-1 | ML 1-0  (-4.69)

           
           
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited October 2016
    For the uninitiated (me) could you please explain the terminology in the spread bet?

    Also is there any incentive for teams to win by big margins or are they more inclined to rest players and manage the game with a comfortable margin? 
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited October 2016
    In Response to Re: NBA Season Spread Betting:
    For the uninitiated (me) could you please explain the terminology in the spread bet? Also is there any incentive for teams to win by big margins or are they more inclined to rest players and manage the game with a comfortable margin? 
    Posted by Phantom66
    Hi,

    The spread is the amount the team is expected to win/lose by. The bookmakers try to set the line exactly in the middle although money wagered can change this if one side is bet more than the other also if players get injured or dont play etc.
    They dont get it right all the time and if you can see where the line is going to move before it moves for value and pick up points on each bet you should be winning over time.
    I havent done very well this season I guess I shouldnt have been betting right from the start although the 2 bets last night were pretty good with +0.5 and +1 points gained. 
    Washington should have won being up by 8 in the last 3 minutes giving away a flagrant foul resulting in a 5 point possesion for the other team and  still being up by 3 in the last 24 seconds for the grizzlies to hit a 3 point shot resulting in overtime and eventually winning the game by 9.
    Teams will rest there star players if winning by a large margin coming into the 4th quarter if its a (blowout) or they will take them off with a few minutes left if the lead is too much for the other team but both teams will generally take off there players and if the lead starts to dwindle too much they will put them back on.
    Generally speaking the lead needs to be around 15 for them to take players off near the end of the 4th quarter.
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Warriors -4.5 @ Blazers 2.05
    Pacers -9 vs Lakers 2.06
    Magic -5 @ Sixers 2.01
    Heat ML vs Kings 1.564 1u
    Pistons ML vs Knicks 1.584 1u
    Cavs ML vs Rockets 1.25 1u

    Warriors closing line -5 (WON 127-104) +0.5
    Pacers closing line -9 (LOSS 115-108) 0.0
    Magic closing line -5 (LOSS 103-101) 0.0
    Heat ML (WON 108-96)
    Pistons ML (WON 102-89)
    Cavs ML (WON 128-120)

    YTD PS 9-15-1 | ML 4-0 (-4.31)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Ok so willhill has set the line on the raptors game wrong, they have raptors +1 instead of -1 so first bet is 2 units on raptors +1 @ wizards 1.91 

    Also willhill is showing over 205 in thunder/clippers game at 1.91 when pinnaclesports (more accurate lines) is showing over 207.5 @ 1.91 and under 207.5 @2.00  so second bet is over 205 thunder/clippers @1.91 2units on willhill
    (other bookmakers have over 205 @ 5/8 etc)

    other bets waiting to get matched are :

    Hornets -12 vs Sixers 1u
    Mavs +5 @ Jazz 1u
    Rockets +1.5 @ Knicks 1u

    Woke to find each game has moved .5 in our direction ex. hornets to -12.5 mavs to +4.5 rockets to +1.
    Only problem is I set the lines too high over even money ie. 2.05-2.08 and didnt get any bets matched but its a good indicator starting to see the games like I was last season as this was a regular occurence. 
    Still taking hornets -12.5 should be a blowout. Will update later
    So tryed to match rockets at +1 they moved to -1.5 pretty sick.

    Plays Tonight :

    Raptors +1 @ Wizards 1.91 2u
    Hornets vs Sixers -12.5 1.93 1u
    Clippers/Thunder Over 205 1.91 2u 


    Raptors closing line -1 (WON 113-103) +2
    Hornets closing line -13 (WON 109-93) +0.5
    Clippers/Thunder closing total 209.5 (LOSS 83-85) +4.5

    YTD PS 11-15-1 | ML 4-0 | Totals 0-1 (-3.61)


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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Celtics +10.5 @ Cavs 2.03 1u

    Celtics closing line +10.5 (WON 122-128) 0.0

    YTD PS 12-15-1 | ML 4-0 | Totals 0-1 (-2.60)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Hawks +2 @ Wizards 1.952
    Hornets -6.5 @ Nets 1.98
    Bulls -6.5 vs Knicks 2.00
    Blazers ML @ Mavs 1.83
    Heat/Raptors Under 200.5 1.91 
    Clippers ML @ Grizzlies 1.462
    Spurs ML @ Jazz 1.602

    all plays 1unit

    Hawks closing line +1.5 (LOSS 92-95) +0.5
    Hornets closing line -6.5 (LOSS 99-95) +0.0
    Bulls Closing line -7.5 (LOSS 104-117) +1
    Blazers ML (WON 105-95)
    Clippers ML (WON 99-88)
    Spurs ML (WON 100-86)
    Heat/Raptors closing line 202.5 (WON 87-96) -2

    YTD PS 12-18-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 1-1 (-2.82)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Sixers +14 vs Cavs 1.91
    Rockets +3 @ Hawks 1.91

    Sixers closing line +13 (WON 101-102) +1
    Rockets closing line +3 (LOSS 97-112) +0

    YTD PS 13-19-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 1-1 (-2.91)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Jazz/Knicks Under 195 1.91 1u
    Jazz -1 @ Knicks 2.00 2.15u 
    Pokerstars wrong line max bet was 2.15 Unit should be[-1.5]
    Mavs -2 vs Bucks 2.00 1.6u
    Pokerstars better odds (max bet)

    Jazz/Knicks closing line 192 (LOSS 114-109) +3
    Jazz closing line -2.5 (WON 114-109) +1.5
    Mavs closing line -2.5 (WON 86-75) +0.5

    YTD PS 15-19-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 1-2 (-0.18)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Heat +6 @ OKC 2.00 1.61u Stars
    Clippers/Pistons under 196.5 2.00 0.64u Stars
    Warriors/Pelicans under 224 1.95 0.68u Stars
    Magic/Bulls under 203 1.91 1u Hills
    Jazz/Sixers under 192.5 1.91 1u Hills

    Heat closing line +5.5 (LOSS 85-97) +0.5
    Jazz/Sixers closing line 192 (LOSS 109-84) +0.5
    Magic/Bulls closing line 200 (WON 80-112) +3
    Warriors/Pelicans closing line 220.5 (WON 116-106) +3.5
    Clipper/Pistons closing line 197 (WON 114-82) -0.5

    YTD PS 15-20-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 4-3 (-0.59)

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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Nets +4 vs TWolves 1.95 1u
    Suns +7.5 @ Blazers 1.91 1u
    Mavs/Lakers over 205.5 2.00 0.27u (stars max bet)
    Hawks/Cavs under 207 1.91 1u
    Adding Mavs +4.5 @ Lakers 1.952 1u



    Nets closing line +3.5 (WON 119-110) +0.5 
    Suns closing line +8.0 (WON 121-124) -0.5
    Mavs/Lakers closing line 203 (WON 109-97) -2.5 
    Hawks/Cavs closing line 207.5 (LOSS 110-106) -0.5 
    Mavs closing line +4.5 (WON 109-97) +0.0 

    YTD PS 18-20-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 5-4 (+1.39)


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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Rockets/Spurs over 211 2.00 0.27u
    Spurs -7.5 vs Rockets 1.91 1u
    Pistons -2.5 @ Suns 1.91 0.73u Stars
    TWolves/Magic Under 201.5 2u~[1u1.91][1u1.95]
    Adding Raptors +4 @ OKC 1.98 1u
    Adding Pacers/Sixers Under 213.5 1u (2.00-1.96)
    Adding Bulls +3.5 @ Hawks 0.66u 2.00 Stars

    TWolves/Magic closing line 201 (LOSS 123-107) +0.5
    Pacers/Sixers closing line 213 (LOSS 122-115) +0.5
    Bulls closing line +3.5 (LOSS 107-115) +0.0
    Raptors closing line +4 (WON 112-102) +0.0
    Pistons closing line -4 (LOSS 100-107) +1.5
    Spurs closing line -8.5 (LOSS 99-101) +1.0
    Rockets/Spurs closing line 211.5 (LOSS 99-101) +0.5

    YTD PS 19-23-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 5-7 (-3.33)

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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Kings -4.5 vs Lakers 2.66u ~ 2u@1.91 0.66u@2.00
    Warriors -6.5 @ Nuggets 1.91 1u
    Pelicans +4.5 @ Bucks 1.97 2u

    Kings closing line -5.5 (LOSS 91-101) +1
    Warriors closing line -6.5 (WON 125-101) 0
    Pelicans closing line +5.5 (WON 112-106) -1

    YTD PS 21-24-1 | ML 7-0 | Totals 5-7 (-3.18)
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  • somepuntersomepunter
    edited November 2016
    would be wary of nuggets warriors, denver high humidity being up in the mountains, lot of teams struggle for energy especially on a b2b
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    In Response to Re: NBA Season Spread Betting:
    would be wary of nuggets warriors, denver high humidity being up in the mountains, lot of teams struggle for energy especially on a b2b
    Posted by somepunter
     
    Yea I know, chandler and barton both out for the nuggets though.
    Curry is GTD but he will probably play I think.

    Curry said after Wednesday's 116-95 win over the Mavericks that he suffered a "little bruise" to his right ankle during the contest, but still plans to play Thursday against the Nuggets, Connor Letourneau of The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
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  • somepuntersomepunter
    edited November 2016
    good luck!
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Pacers -4.5 @ Sixers 2.07 1u
    Clippers ML @ Thunder 1.56 1u
    Raptors/Hornets over 201 1.944 1u

    Pacers closing line -5 (LOSS 105-109) +0.5
    Clippers ML (WON 110-108)
    Raptors/Hornets closing line 202.5 (WON 113-111) +1.5

    YTD PS 21-25-1 | ML 8-0 | Totals 6-7 (-2.70)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Spurs -1.5 @ Rockets 1.95 1.5u + 2.00 0.5u
    Grizzlies +2.5 @ Bucks 2.00 0.66u + 2.03 0.34u
    Celtics +2.5 @ Pacers 1.96 1u

    Spurs closing line -1.5 (WON 106-100) 0
    Grizzlies closing line +3 (LOSS 96-106) -0.5
    Celtics closing line -1.5 (WON 105-99) +4

    YTD PS 23-26-1 | ML 8-0 | Totals 6-7 (-0.83)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Spurs -12 vs Heat 1.95 1u
    Jazz -6.5 vs Grizzlies 1.97 1u 
    Jazz ML vs Grizzlies 1.409 1u 

    Spurs closing line -11 (LOSS 94-90) -1
    Jazz clsoing line -5.5 (LOSS 96-102) -1
    Jazz ML (LOSS 96-102)

    YTD PS 23-28-1 | ML 8-1 | Totals 6-7 (-3.83)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Raptors/Cavs under 210.5 1.91 1.57u 
    Hornets -2 @ Timberwolves 1.97 1u
    Adding Bulls/Blazers under 210.5 2.00 1u
               Lakers/Nets under 219.5 1.943 1u

    Raptors/Cavs closing line 208 (LOSS 117-121) +2.5
    Hornets closing line -1 (WON 115-108) -1
    Bulls/Blazers closine line 210.5 (WON 113-88) 0
    Lakers/Nets closing line 219 (LOSS 125-118) +0.5

    YTD PS 24-28-1 | ML 8-1 | Totals 7-9 (-4.47)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Rockets +2 @ OKC 2.00 1u
    Rockets closing line +2.5 (PUSH 103-105) -0.5 :(

    YTD PS 24-28-2 | ML 8-1 | Totals 7-9 (-4.47)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Knicks +5 @ Wizards 2.03 2u
    Blazers +4.5 @ Rockets 1u
    Sixers +11.5 @ TWolves 1u

    Knicks closing line +5 (LOSS 112-119) 0
    Blazers closing line +5 (LOSS 109-126) -0.5
    Sixers closing line +11.5 (LOSS 86-110) 0

    YTD PS 24-31-2 | ML 8-1 | Totals 7-9 (-8.47)
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  • JMcCririckJMcCririck
    edited November 2016
    Hornets -2 @ Hawks 1.925 1.00u (WON 100-96) 0
    Cavs -8.5 vs Pistons  2.00 1.00u (WON 104-81) 0
    Warriors -8.5 @ Celtics 2.04 0.43u (WON 104-88) 0
    Blazers -1 @ Pelicans 2.05 2u (LOSS 101-113) 0
    Raptors -3 @ Nuggets 1.96 1u (LOSS 113 - 111) +0.5
    Spurs -6.5 @ Lakers 1.99 0.55u (WON 116 -107) +1.0
    Clippers -8.5 @ Kings 2.00 1.00u (LOSS 121-115) 0

    YTD PS 28-34-2 | ML 8-1 | Totals 7-9 (-9.60)

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