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would they raise with worse?

spdbrkrSmall blind £0.25£0.25£161.59
CyclobBig blind £0.50£0.75£21.80
 Your hole cards
  • J
  • A
   
dub1Fold    
villainRaise £2.00£2.75£122.27
JACKBETFold    
offshootCall £2.00£4.75£71.87
spdbrkrFold    
CyclobFold    
Flop
  
  • 8
  • 2
  • A
   
villainBet £4.00£8.75£118.27
offshootCall £4.00£12.75£67.87
Turn
  
  • J
   
villainBet £9.50£22.25£108.77
offshootCall £9.50£31.75£58.37
River
  
  • Q
   
villainCheck    
offshootBet £10.00£41.75£48.37
villainRaise £80.50£122.25£28.27
offshoot??
 

Comments

  • edited February 2010
    ^^^that hand villain is a reg, no real reads, same with this one. Can we assume villain is bluffing any % of the time in either hands?
    offshoot Small blind   £0.50 £0.50 £363.95
    villain
    Big blind   £1.00 £1.50 £182.19
      Your hole cards
    • 7
    • 7
         
    Descartes Call   £1.00 £2.50 £57.80
    5ocrates Fold        
    GliterBabe Fold        
    BLUFFA360 Raise   £4.00 £6.50 £244.87
    offshoot Call   £3.50 £10.00 £360.45
    villain Call   £3.00 £13.00 £179.19
    Descartes Call   £3.00 £16.00 £54.80
    Flop
       
    • 7
    • 3
    • 6
         
    offshoot Check        
    villain Check        
    Descartes Check        
    BLUFFA360 Check        
    Turn
       
    • K
         
    offshoot Check        
    villain Bet   £12.00 £28.00 £167.19
    Descartes Fold        
    BLUFFA360 Call   £12.00 £40.00 £232.87
    offshoot Raise   £51.00 £91.00 £309.45
    villain All-in   £167.19 £258.19 £0.00
    BLUFFA360 Fold        
    offshoot ?
  • edited February 2010
    2nd hand i have the 2nd nuts basically. Would it be dumb to think about folding here? Does villain shove 66, 33 this deep? Villain is BrownnDog fwiw
  • edited February 2010
    In Response to Re: would they raise with worse?:
    2nd hand i have the 2nd nuts basically. Would it be dumb to think about folding here? Does villain shove 66, 33 this deep? Villain is BrownnDog fwiw
    Posted by offshoot


    Hand 1 just doesn't make any sense to bet flop +turn then c/r that river. So i'd get confused and call. If we lose I cant imagine it's to a straight, surely a flopped set that bet turn will bet river. The river c/r doesn't seem like much of a value play because of you calling flop and turn, you'd need to have picked up a fd with a float then bet the river to move him off something. IF he had a medium strength made hand he wouldn't be c/r, so he gotta have the nuts or some random missed draw that was picked up on the turn. Or a worse hand that made a sudden change of mind on river and c/r you because you bet so small with like AK or something.

    Hand 2 is so meh. I would have lead flop or turn. Just call and fill up.
  • edited February 2010

    hand 1 is messed up maybe he c bets with K 10 suited picks up flush and straight draw on turn then makes a cunning river check.

    hand 2 he has 45 obvs!

  • edited February 2010
    hand 2 im allin, i doubt very much villain would just flat call the raise preflop with KK especially when there are multiple players in the pot. i put him on 33 or 66 mainly because i would just flat call that kind of raise looking to hit my set which is what he has done. if he has 4-5 then its just a cooler and you still have 10 outs to hit for the redraw. 

    hand 1 im putting my opponent on a-q, kind of raise you make with that hand, hit top pair on a safe board so standard bet, you think your hand is still good when the J comes on the turn so you bet again, you just call so i still think my hand is good, i hit 2 pair on the river, thinking i was ahead before hand not knowing the river saved me, thats what my instincts say.
  • edited February 2010
    On hand 1 why bet so small if you don't know what to do when raised. You stink of a weak ace with that bet which half decent players are gona sniff out and punish. As you didn't raise turn he can't put you on AJ/sets too often so you most likely have a 1 pair hand which he can push off with a river shove.

    AQ being unlikely too as you'd 3bet this spot more times than not.

    I prefer betting £20-25 on river but prefer raising turn in general as I like to float/bluff regs off turns on these dry boards a lot cause so many play weak tight so I get shipped on lighter in future.

    So if I was villain I'd think it's a nice spot to bluff so I'd call pretty quick if I was you. Only two/three legitimate hands he can have here are AQ, K10ss and maybe JJ. If you called and saw 22/88/QQ this is very good info on how bad he plays. 

    By the way: Why do we have no reads on "regs", all your hard decisions will come from their bets unlike mindless fish so you need to take more notes on betting patterns by the looks of it. Even though I know this is almost impossible on Sky.

    Hand 2 is always a call.
  • edited February 2010
    i obv cant give reads on regs that i know read the forum. I agree with your assessment though.
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