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be carefull what you wish for

edited November 2016 in Tournament Strategy
5:05 31/10/2016)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancedarryl1976Small blind 10.0010.002030.00TommyDBig blind 20.0030.001980.00 Your hole cards44   unbpowerFold    StayOrGoRaise 60.0090.001870.00weecheez1Call 60.00150.001850.00xxCall 60.00210.002275.00darryl1976Fold    TommyDFold    Flop  A57   StayOrGoCheck    weecheez1Check    xxCheck    Turn  Q   StayOrGoCheck    weecheez1Check    xxCheck    River  4   StayOrGoCheck    weecheez1Bet 105.00315.001745.00xxAll-in 2275.002590.000.00StayOrGoFold    weecheez1All-in 1745.004335.000.00xxUnmatched bet 425.003910.00425.00weecheez1Show44   xxShow68   xxWinStraight to the 83910.00 4335.00

Comments

  • edited October 2016
    the above hand was from the ukops freezout semi this afternoon and other than the starting hand i dont think i done much wrong went fishing for a set hit and lost was it too early to take a chance against the big boys ?
  • edited November 2016
    Set mining that deep is totally fine.

    You got a free ride to the river, then hit and got unlucky.

    While overshoving a river bet is suspicous as strong, especially early in a satelitte, I really dont think there is anything you can do to get away from that one. Made oversets would have surely put something in the pot earlier? Any number of 2 pair combinations could be out there or opponent might assume you have nothing and are taking a stab at the pot and want to take you off it. We are only worried about the unlikely 68. Plenty of reasons to still call.

  • edited November 2016
    Because the villian was last to act and checked flop and turn there are basically no 2 pair combinations he can have. Possible 54 but you shouldn't be shoving with this hand anyway as you can't get called by worse. I think it's quite likely he has 68 here as a bluff in this spot doesn't make any sense.
  • edited November 2016
    On reflection, if xxx is a solid reg then no the bluff does not make sense, they may be capable of bluffing but wouldnt overbet shove and would probably have tried something on the turn (which in this case would be a semi bluff).

    If a random or known weaker player, then I would call as I see alot of overbet shove bluffs in the early stages of tournaments.

    There are plenty of weaker players who seem to unnecessarily slow play hands and then if they get no action down the streets try and get it all on the river and there are far more 2 pair combos than oversets possible. 


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