AFCON tip

jordz16

After watching the first game at the AFCON I decided id back "a penalty to be awarded" for each match. You get between 3/1-4/1 if you shop around, and so far there has been 5 games (out of 11) with penalties. Its obviously a small sample size but i do think its value, The defending in this competition is generally awful and the pitches are even worse quality add to that a lot of these attacking players have exceptional pace it all points to a lot of Penalties....

Phantom66

Given it a try for Morocco v Togo.

7/2

Noticed that penalty 1st goal was 12/1 and penalty in 2nd half qas 7/1. Wondered whether you thought they might be better value?

jordz16

I think Penalty first goal id avoid as A) it has to be scored and you tend to get more penalties in the 2nd half of games and 3) id expect quite a few goals for the rest of the tournament as every team seems to be better going forward than they are at the back.... The penalty in second half at 7/1 is definitely good value, although it will be a higher variance pick, and you will kick yourself every time there is a 1st half pen.

Phantom66

Missed tonight but think I'll stick with it.

Yeah agree with you about the 1st goal pen, probably better to find out who the pen taker is and back them to score first.

RE 2nd half, I would expect there to more pens in 2nd halves (tired leg defenders, fresh leg subs, pushing more to get a draw/win, professional foul to stop a certain goal being more likely if defending a lead and time running out). 

There will also be games with a pen in both halves.

Double the odds seems to be value, but then I have no stats to back that hunch up.

jordz16

Yeah it would likely offer value, but again it would be higher variance.

RE backing the penalty taker, I did that in the Ghana game but despite Gyan having taken Ghanas last 7 pens it was Ayew who took it! I wasnt happy at all!