Been a while since posting a hand on Sky so here's my bit to add to the cash game section
(ps why don't we just go back to 1 forum section for all hands and strategy?)Was lucky to find myself at a pretty good table. The first caller was a serial limper and must have been playing something like 85-5 and didn't seem to have much of a fold button post-flop either, although equally had remained pretty passive. He was the main reason that I was betting big as AJ is the nuts vs him and will let me shove almost all rivers.
The second caller I'd guess 35-15 - but post flop had tended to put in little 1x - 3x bluff/blocker bets and almost always folded to a raise. Bigger bets that went to showdown had been fairly nutted, although not just stone cold nuts.
Therefore figure his optimistic range must be: KQ, AJ, AT, TT, JJ, 66, A6s, JT
Pessimistic range: KQ, AJ, JJ, TT, 66
vs the former I have 40.6% (actually way more than I thought it would be) and vs the latter I have 15%
Adding AT to the pessimistic range jumps me to 29%. With £11.80 needed to win £33.04 (35.7%) that still leaves me with a fold. But if we can assume that the passive player will call behind, £11.80 to win £44.84 (26%) and we have a call?
Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
---|
spew | Small blind | | £0.10 | £0.10 | £10.72 |
spewier | Big blind | | £0.20 | £0.30 | £17.53 |
| Your hole cards | | | | |
talker | Fold | | | | |
shakinaces | Raise | | £0.60 | £0.90 | £20.77 |
spewiest | Call | | £0.60 | £1.50 | £32.90 |
villain | Call | | £0.60 | £2.10 | £18.18 |
spew | Fold | | | | |
spewier | Fold | | | | |
Flop |
---|
| | | | | |
shakinaces | Bet | | £1.58 | £3.68 | £19.19 |
spewiest | Call | | £1.58 | £5.26 | £31.32 |
villain | Call | | £1.58 | £6.84 | £16.60 |
Turn |
---|
| | | | | |
shakinaces | Bet | | £4.80 | £11.64 | £14.39 |
spewiest | Call | | £4.80 | £16.44 | £26.52 |
villain | All-in | | £16.60 | £33.04 | £0.00 |
shakinaces | ??? | | | | |
Comments
I'm loathe to assume TT-JJ are mandatory 3-bets at these levels if not vs a semi-decent reg at least, but get your point that it is for sure top of their calling range aka as pessimistic as it gets.
I'd potentially consider c/c HU against certain oppos, but in this spot my main thought is to build the pot vs the CO. It feels like I'd have missed massive value if the turn gets checked through and I can only squeeze out another 4-6 quid on the river, so I have to bet turn in order to be able to shove all blank rivers.
I suppose the bet-sizing may be off to achieve that. Can go smaller (like £3 - £3.60) and then if villain does shove there is scope to consider a fold or go bigger (£5.50 - £6.50) to deny draws the odds to call / make it a no brainer snap call if facing a shove?