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CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT. POST HERE IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE ONE OF MY "G

StayOrGoStayOrGo
edited April 2017 in Betting Chat
Through the first leg with Lord Ballim, but it was the favourite.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Hi guys. Clearly we wouldn't do Carlisle Jackpot as there is no carry over, but the selections would be:

    LEG1 - 2.00PM:

    1 - LORD BALLIM (11/4)
    2 - THEATRE ACT (7/2)
    8 - SPOILS OF WAR (11/2)
    5 - WAZOWSKI (7/1)

    LEG2 - 2.30PM:

    2 - DOCTOR GLAZ (11/4)
    4 - ACHILL ROAD BOY (7/2)
    5 - ALLEZ COOL (8/1)
    10 - MAN IN BLACK  (13/2)
    1 - JAUNTY THOR (10/1)
    3 - LA DAMA DE HIERRO (10/1)

    LEG3 - 3.00PM:

    1 - MISTER BIG SHOT (1/4)

    LEG4 - 3.35PM:

    1 - SPICULAS (7/2)
    2 - THYNE FOR GOLD (5/1)
    4 - SCOOTER BOY (5/2)
    5 - HALCYONS DAYS (3/1)

    LEG5 - 4.05PM:

    2 - CALIVIGNY (3/1)
    1 - ROWDY ROCHER (15/2)
    7 - PRESENTING JUNIOR (7/1)
    8 - CRAFTY ROBERTO (9/1)

    LEG6 - 4.35PM:

    9 - NOCTURNAL MYTH (9/4)
    2 - OURO BRANCO (11/4)

    THIS WOULD BE 768 lines at a cost of £384

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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    2,229.44 UNITS LEFT GOING INTO LEG2
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Nice result in leg 2 with Allez Cool winning. We had the first 4 home in our selections.

    This is the type of result we are always looking for as Allez Cool was only covered by 7.87% in the Jackpot pool, which is an under-representation of the chance it's odds suggested it had.

    175.5 UNITS left, but it's our "banker" next. :=)
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    LOL, of the 175.5 units left 170.5 units are on our banker :=)

    So clearly lots doing the same.

    Despite this actual leg being, in isolation, -ev, it is just important to get through and we have a further 3 legs to reduce the pool size.

    So the leg is -ev but the selection as a banker, in the whole context of the bet, is +ev due to the wider perm it allows us to do in the other legs.

    Make sense?


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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Our banker Mr Big Shot prevails comfortably in leg 3. Game on :=)
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  • BrrrrrrrBrrrrrrr
    edited April 2017
    I can't really afford to join you at the moment, but the best of luck when you go 'live' - this is definitely a great advert for the idea!!
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    I can't really afford to join you at the moment, but the best of luck when you go 'live' - this is definitely a great advert for the idea!!
    Posted by Brrrrrrr

    Many thanks for your kind wishes Brrrrrr
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Another 1-2 in leg 4.

    Halcyon Days wins leaving 46 units going through to leg 5.
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited April 2017


    Looking good again Graham...good work. Lets hope we dont fall at the last fence again ;(
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  • chillingchilling
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Looking good again Graham...good work. Lets hope we dont fall at the last fence again ;(
    Posted by MAXALLY
    Hope not, cos its a flat race.
    I know, figure of speech.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Looking good again Graham...good work. Lets hope we dont fall at the last fence again ;(
    Posted by MAXALLY

    Indeed, also hope I don't peak too soon either, in the trials :=)

    What we must remember is that MOST of the time, ONE OR TWO legs will let us down.

    However,  if we can achieve my much touted "1 in 12 success rate" with an average profit > 12 * the stake we'd be doing OK.

    It's quite fun doing the trials, no pressure lol. :=)
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited April 2017
    Watching with interest though unlikely to be able to commit to a stake.

    Are there circumstances where you could consider betting on non-selections in the final race when the jackpot chance is live?

    GL.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Looks like a late spinger in the market that we don't have in the 5th leg.

    Namely, Freddies Portrait.

    It's a concern.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Busted 5th leg, I'm not sure if I am relieved or dissapointed. :=)
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Watching with interest though unlikely to be able to commit to a stake. Are there circumstances where you could consider betting on non-selections in the final race when the jackpot chance is live? GL.
    Posted by Phantom66

    Hi Phantom.

    It is something I do consider, and have done in the past.

    Although, I would not want to do this for the Syndicate, for obvious reasons.

    However, there is nothing stopping syndicate members doing something similar for themselves.

    Also, unless you are going to back ALL the selections you don't have, it is often better to "lay" the one's you do.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited April 2017


    Bloody useless Graham! In a six horse race, you pick the four that were not even placed. I told you we should of cashed out FFS*.







    *all said in jest. Liking these trials, and looking forward to the real thing and having a few sweats on the rail. Found the Tote Jackpot page today too when looking how it all worked as didnt have a scooby do.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    There are just 3 units left going to the final leg.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    Bloody useless Graham! In a six horse race, you pick the four that were not even placed. I told you we should of cashed out FFS*. *all said in jest. Liking these trials, and looking forward to the real thing and having a few sweats on the rail. Found the Tote Jackpot page today too when looking how it all worked as didnt have a scooby do.
    Posted by MAXALLY

    Yes the 5th leg was particularly poor. Although very hard to pick the winner, hence why only 3 units were on it. :=(
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    There are just 3 units left going to the final leg.
    Posted by StayOrGo


    So if Ouro Branco goes off as fav, and doesnt win....this will be a rollover?

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  • zadoczadoc
    edited April 2017


       Hi Graham,

       Am following with great interest.

       Unfortuanate with last race but this is a very difficult task you have set.

       Overall think you are doing a great job & still have every confidence in your ability to find the correct day to place the bets & have good enough knowledge to select the correct horses.
     
       Roger
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT : So if Ouro Branco goes off as fav, and doesnt win....this will be a rollover?
    Posted by MAXALLY

    Yes. I am actually going to do the Jackpot (on my own) for Aintree tomorrow.

    I am using 3 bankers so the perm won't be too big. (Top Notch, Defi Du Seuil and Buvier D'air)

    People may want to do there own.

    Statistically it is probable that one "banker" will let me down, but doing this on my own, I need to keep the perm size small.

    If all the bankers come in then the dividend won't be that big either, so it is just a little punt. :=) 

    I'll start a thread.

    Cheers,

    G


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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: CARLISLE "WOULD BE" TRIAL RUN JACKPOT:
       Hi Graham,    Am following with great interest.    Unfortuanate with last race but this is a very difficult task you have set.    Overall think you are doing a great job & still have every confidence in your ability to find the correct day to place the bets & have good enough knowledge to select the correct horses.      Roger
    Posted by zadoc

    Thanks Roger, much appreciated.

    I think it is good that we get used to disappointment and near misses in a way.

    Don't forget, on some occasions we may bust the first leg and that will be that. (Excitement over for the day)

    I don't mean to sound pessimistic, because I am not, but my projection is that, in the short term, we will fail, over 90% of the time, so we need to be pragmatic about it, and get used to losing! :=(

    It is a longer term philosophy that may require some patience and enduring near misses and early bust outs will all be part of that. Bit like a poker MTT really. :=)

    However, in the long term, I hope I can under promise and over deliver. We shall see.

    Thanks for the feedback.

    G

    P.S. Also please note, when we go for it for real, I will very much be incorporating peoples suggestions in the open race legs where we have lots of selections. So it will indeed be a joint effort between me and those wishing to participate in selection choice.

    I feel, the best thing I bring to the table in this venture, is my statistical knowledge and understanding how to optimally cover a large spread of the betting market in each leg, not horse form analysis.

    So I am more than happy to be assisted in the actual selection of the horses. Hope this makes sense. Also, I really do want people to feel including and I will try very hard to incorporate everyone's selections, as long as the base strategy remains intact.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    It might be worth asking here.

    Who are my "GO TO" people for horse selections?

    If you want to be involved in the horses that we pick, please post here.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited April 2017
    Only read your post tonight.
    These were my bets at Carlisle last night.Did not post up but had a small dividend.
    Bet Confirmation - QD5940057921I - Internet   Time of bet: 04/04/2017 22:20:13
    No.SelectionsEventEvent DateE/W TermsOddsDividendBet TypeResult
    1 Lord Ballim
    		2.00 Carlisle (Race 1)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 3 Places
    1/5 Odds     		5/2   Won
      Best Odds applied, original price subject to Rule 4 deduction.
    2 Doktor Glaz
    		2.30 Carlisle (Race 2)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 3 Places
    1/5 Odds     		4/1   Placed
      Best Odds applied, price updated to SP.
    3 Achill Road Boy
    		2.30 Carlisle (Race 2)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 3 Places
    1/5 Odds     		10/3   Lost
    4 Scooter Boy
    		3.35 Carlisle (Race 4)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 2 Places
    1/4 Odds     		11/4   Lost
    5 Halcyon Days
    		3.35 Carlisle (Race 4)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 2 Places
    1/4 Odds     		5/1   Won
      Best Odds applied, price updated to SP.
    6 Mumgos Debut
    		4.05 Carlisle (Race 5)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 2 Places
    1/4 Odds     		11/1   Won
      Best Odds applied, price updated to SP.
    7 Ouro Branco
    		4.35 Carlisle (Race 6)
    (Win and Each Way)
    Live Stream      		05/04/2017 3 Places
    1/5 Odds     		3/1   Lost
      Rule 4: 30p  
    Multiples
    Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Total Stake To Return Returns
    E/W Trebles 25 0.10 5.00   29.61
    Total Stake:  5.00   Total Returns:  29.61
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Nice one Wynne, I will count you in, as one of my "go to" guys for horse selections.

    Great pick, Mumgos Debut in the 4.05, that would have kept us in the Jackpot! :=)
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  • chillingchilling
    edited April 2017
    I think there are always races that you come across on a card, that you wouldnt normally consider betting on.Its trying to find and eliminate horses that cant possibly win by using certain tools of your choice.Value in jackpots regarding odds of individual horses, is not applicable.
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