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FLOS LAS (TRIAL RUN) JACKPOT. WE WOULD HAVE WON IT, BUT LOW DIVIDEND.STILL A PROFIT

StayOrGoStayOrGo
edited April 2017 in Betting Chat
Hi, please post suggestions re, bankers, horses we can take out of the perm, and suggestions to keep in by 1.50pm to give me time to collate.

Cheers,

G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Hi.

    Many thanks to Roger for doing the leg work with this, I have now amended to R-Post prices and have added the best available prices from this morning. The Racing Post Prices now correspond to the prices at the bottom of each racecard and not to those alongside each horse, which is the bookmaker odds that I use later in the other columns.

    PLEASE NOTE THIS IS JUST ANOTHER TRIAL RUN. WE WILL NOT START IN EARNEST UNTIL MAY 2017

    I will add up-to-date "LATEST" prices nearer the off.

    At the moment our perm is too big, and we don't have a banker yet.

    So still some whittling down to do.

    The shortlist is highlited in blue. Does anyone have any opinions on horses we can remove, and horses we must keep from the list?

    I think, to reduce the perm we'd either need to have BARAZA in the 2.45PM or EARTHMOVES in the 3.20PM as a banker.

    I'm inclined to go with EARTHMOVES, but clearly it will be a risk.

    Any thoughts?

    DATE Sunday 09/04/2017 Ffos Las







    LEG/TIME HORSE R-POST ODDS OV NIGHT MORN LATEST
    2:15 01 - BALLYARTHUR 7/4
    		7/4
    2:15 02 - BALLYANTICS 14/1
    		16/1
    2:15 03 - CORBETT COURT 66/1
    		250/1
    2:15 04 - JAMESON 2/1
    		5/4
    2:15 05 - KAFELLA 5/1
    		6/1
    2:15 06 - MURPHY'S NAILS 20/1
    		66/1
    2:15 07 - RAMONEX 16/1 NON RUNNER
    2:15 08 - ROCK AND ROLL KING 25/1
    		50/1
    2:15 09 - OUR PHILLIE LILY 66/1
    		200/1
    2:15 10 - WITH PLEASURE 10/1
    		14/1






    2:45 01 - BARAZA 7/4
    		10/11
    2:45 02 - LOOKS LIKE POWER 6/1
    		6/1
    2:45 03 - TIME AND AGAIN 7/2 NON RUNNER
    2:45 04 - WHAT'S UP RORY 7/2
    		5/2
    2:45 05 - GOING NOWHERE FAST 16/1
    		14/1
    2:45 06 - GOONJIM 5/1 NON RUNNER






    3:20 01 - THE MUMPER 4/1
    		15/2
    3:20 02 - HANDSUPFORDETROIT 11/2
    		4/1
    3:20 03 - SPANISH OPTIMIST 50/1
    		50/1
    3:20 04 - EARTHMOVES 8/11
    		4/5
    3:20 05 - HORSEGUARDSPARADE 5/1
    		11/2






    3:55 01 - ZEROSHADESOFGREY 7/1
    		13/2
    3:55 02 - WUFF 7/2
    		4/1
    3:55 03 - UPSWING 9/2
    		3/1
    3:55 04 - ABRICOT DE L'OASIS 8/1
    		8/1
    3:55 05 - RACING PULSE 12/1 NON RUNNER
    3:55 06 - HENLLAN HARRI 7/2
    		11/2
    3:55 07 - BROWNVILLE 7/1
    		8/1
    3:55 08 - KILCULLEN FLEM 7/1
    		7/1






    4:30 01 - VIRTUEL D'OUDON 14/1 NON RUNNER
    4:30 02 - PERFORM 6/1
    		8/1
    4:30 03 - OUT SAM 8/1
    		8/1
    4:30 04 - KRIS SPIN 14/1 NON RUNNER
    4:30 05 - MINELLA ARIS 7/1
    		6/1
    4:30 06 - KNIGHT OF NOIR 25/1
    		40/1
    4:30 07 - YOU SAY WHAT 10/1
    		20/1
    4:30 08 - OSCARTEEA 14/1
    		25/1
    4:30 09 - DRIFTWOOD HAZE 11/1
    		14/1
    4:30 10 - FIREBIRD FLYER 20/1
    		33/1
    4:30 11 - VERYGOODVERYGOOD 8/1
    		10/1
    4:30 12 - ROCKY'S TREASURE 7/2
    		3/1
    4:30 13 - GOING FOR BROKE 8/1
    		13/2
    4:30 14 - TEA TIME FRED 16/1
    		8/1






    5:00 01 - ROCKNROLLRAMBO 15/8
    		2/1
    5:00 02 - TRIPTICO 8/1 NON RUNNER
    5:00 03 - ARMEDANDBEAUTIFUL 12/1
    		16/1
    5:00 04 - SHUIL TEACHT ANIAR 6/1
    		11/2
    5:00 05 - UNCLE PETTIT 10/1
    		8/1
    5:00 06 - THE LAST BRIDGE 5/1
    		4/1
    5:00 07 - WELSH DESIGNE 14/1 NON RUNNER
    5:00 08 - TRY IT SOMETIME 12/1
    		9/1
    5:00 09 - BENNYS GIRL 15/2
    		13/2

    END


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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited April 2017
    I have put my 6 selections for dogs Las under horses for today if it helps
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  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME
    edited April 2017
    Defo can't afford to leave out HENLLAN HARRI 3.55pm imo.....its got good course form and peter Bowen's horses are running well, and he generally does well at his 'local' track. I've given up on ZEROSHADESOFGREY having backed it a few times.....usually runs well 'til 2 out and is then one-paced, but handicap mark doesn't drop 'coz it's usually placed. This race is very tricky and difficult to leave any out I think.

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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FLOAS LAS (TRIAL RUN) JACKPOT 2ND PASS. OPINIONS/SUGGESTIONS WANTED BY 1.50PM:
    Defo can't afford to leave out HENLLAN HARRI 3.55pm imo.....its got good course form and peter Bowen's horses are running well, and he generally does well at his 'local' track. I've given up on ZEROSHADESOFGREY having backed it a few times.....usually runs well 'til 2 out and is then one-paced, but handicap mark doesn't drop 'coz it's usually placed. This race is very tricky and difficult to leave any out I think.
    Posted by MISTY4ME
    Yes, I had actually put it back in before seeing this. It was out original due to being 11/2 when paper price 7/2, but agree with you, too risky to leave out.

    The rationale generally in these situations is that with it being 7/2 in the paper and drifting late on that it will be over-represented in the pool. I would image it will carry 20% of the pool, where it's chance according to it's odds and adjusted for betting percentages is only 12.5%.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Hi, OK, I have done two "would be" perms splitting up the two "bankers", as it is quite likely that at least one of them would not win.

    So our trial run two perms are: (Chosen horses in blue)
    DATE Sunday 09/04/2017 Ffos Las







    LEG/TIME HORSE R-POST ODDS OV NIGHT MORN LATEST
    2:15 01 - BALLYARTHUR 7/4
    		7/4 6/4
    2:15 02 - BALLYANTICS 14/1
    		16/1 20/1
    2:15 03 - CORBETT COURT 66/1
    		250/1 250/1
    2:15 04 - JAMESON 2/1
    		5/4 5/4
    2:15 05 - KAFELLA 5/1
    		6/1 6/1
    2:15 06 - MURPHY'S NAILS 20/1
    		66/1 66/1
    2:15 07 - RAMONEX 16/1 NON RUNNER
    2:15 08 - ROCK AND ROLL KING 25/1
    		50/1 50/1
    2:15 09 - OUR PHILLIE LILY 66/1
    		200/1 200/1
    2:15 10 - WITH PLEASURE 10/1
    		14/1 16/1






    2:45 01 - BARAZA 7/4
    		10/11 10/11
    2:45 02 - LOOKS LIKE POWER 6/1
    		6/1 6/1
    2:45 03 - TIME AND AGAIN 7/2 NON RUNNER
    2:45 04 - WHAT'S UP RORY 7/2
    		5/2 5/2
    2:45 05 - GOING NOWHERE FAST 16/1
    		14/1 14/1
    2:45 06 - GOONJIM 5/1 NON RUNNER






    3:20 01 - THE MUMPER 4/1
    		15/2 9/1
    3:20 02 - HANDSUPFORDETROIT 11/2
    		4/1 9/2
    3:20 03 - SPANISH OPTIMIST 50/1
    		50/1 50/1
    3:20 04 - EARTHMOVES 8/11
    		4/5 4/5
    3:20 05 - HORSEGUARDSPARADE 5/1
    		11/2 5/1






    3:55 01 - ZEROSHADESOFGREY 7/1
    		13/2 7/1
    3:55 02 - WUFF 7/2
    		4/1 4/1
    3:55 03 - UPSWING 9/2
    		3/1 3/1
    3:55 04 - ABRICOT DE L'OASIS 8/1
    		8/1 15/2
    3:55 05 - RACING PULSE 12/1 NON RUNNER
    3:55 06 - HENLLAN HARRI 7/2
    		11/2 11/2
    3:55 07 - BROWNVILLE 7/1
    		8/1 8/1
    3:55 08 - KILCULLEN FLEM 7/1
    		7/1 7/1






    4:30 01 - VIRTUEL D'OUDON 14/1 NON RUNNER
    4:30 02 - PERFORM 6/1
    		8/1 15/2
    4:30 03 - OUT SAM 8/1
    		8/1 9/1
    4:30 04 - KRIS SPIN 14/1 NON RUNNER
    4:30 05 - MINELLA ARIS 7/1
    		6/1 6/1
    4:30 06 - KNIGHT OF NOIR 25/1
    		40/1 40/1
    4:30 07 - YOU SAY WHAT 10/1
    		20/1 22/1
    4:30 08 - OSCARTEEA 14/1
    		25/1 25/1
    4:30 09 - DRIFTWOOD HAZE 11/1
    		14/1 14/1
    4:30 10 - FIREBIRD FLYER 20/1
    		33/1 40/1
    4:30 11 - VERYGOODVERYGOOD 8/1
    		10/1 10/1
    4:30 12 - ROCKY'S TREASURE 7/2
    		3/1 3/1
    4:30 13 - GOING FOR BROKE 8/1
    		13/2 7/1
    4:30 14 - TEA TIME FRED 16/1
    		8/1 8/1






    5:00 01 - ROCKNROLLRAMBO 15/8
    		2/1 2/1
    5:00 02 - TRIPTICO 8/1 NON RUNNER
    5:00 03 - ARMEDANDBEAUTIFUL 12/1
    		16/1
    5:00 04 - SHUIL TEACHT ANIAR 6/1
    		11/2 11/2
    5:00 05 - UNCLE PETTIT 10/1
    		8/1 8/1
    5:00 06 - THE LAST BRIDGE 5/1
    		4/1 4/1
    5:00 07 - WELSH DESIGNE 14/1 NON RUNNER
    5:00 08 - TRY IT SOMETIME 12/1
    		9/1 9/1
    5:00 09 - BENNYS GIRL 15/2
    		13/2 13/2
    DATE Sunday 09/04/2017 Ffos Las







    LEG/TIME HORSE R-POST ODDS OV NIGHT MORN LATEST
    2:15 01 - BALLYARTHUR 7/4
    		7/4 6/4
    2:15 02 - BALLYANTICS 14/1
    		16/1 20/1
    2:15 03 - CORBETT COURT 66/1
    		250/1 250/1
    2:15 04 - JAMESON 2/1
    		5/4 5/4
    2:15 05 - KAFELLA 5/1
    		6/1 6/1
    2:15 06 - MURPHY'S NAILS 20/1
    		66/1 66/1
    2:15 07 - RAMONEX 16/1 NON RUNNER
    2:15 08 - ROCK AND ROLL KING 25/1
    		50/1 50/1
    2:15 09 - OUR PHILLIE LILY 66/1
    		200/1 200/1
    2:15 10 - WITH PLEASURE 10/1
    		14/1 16/1






    2:45 01 - BARAZA 7/4
    		10/11 10/11
    2:45 02 - LOOKS LIKE POWER 6/1
    		6/1 6/1
    2:45 03 - TIME AND AGAIN 7/2 NON RUNNER
    2:45 04 - WHAT'S UP RORY 7/2
    		5/2 5/2
    2:45 05 - GOING NOWHERE FAST 16/1
    		14/1 14/1
    2:45 06 - GOONJIM 5/1 NON RUNNER






    3:20 01 - THE MUMPER 4/1
    		15/2 9/1
    3:20 02 - HANDSUPFORDETROIT 11/2
    		4/1 9/2
    3:20 03 - SPANISH OPTIMIST 50/1
    		50/1 50/1
    3:20 04 - EARTHMOVES 8/11
    		4/5 4/5
    3:20 05 - HORSEGUARDSPARADE 5/1
    		11/2 5/1






    3:55 01 - ZEROSHADESOFGREY 7/1
    		13/2 7/1
    3:55 02 - WUFF 7/2
    		4/1 4/1
    3:55 03 - UPSWING 9/2
    		3/1 3/1
    3:55 04 - ABRICOT DE L'OASIS 8/1
    		8/1 15/2
    3:55 05 - RACING PULSE 12/1 NON RUNNER
    3:55 06 - HENLLAN HARRI 7/2
    		11/2 11/2
    3:55 07 - BROWNVILLE 7/1
    		8/1 8/1
    3:55 08 - KILCULLEN FLEM 7/1
    		7/1 7/1






    4:30 01 - VIRTUEL D'OUDON 14/1 NON RUNNER
    4:30 02 - PERFORM 6/1
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    The cost of the first perm would have been £375 and the second perm £540.

    Lets see how we would have done.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    There has been a lot of money for Kafella, so that would be in both perms, but too late to update now, so imaging Kafella in perm two as well.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Through leg 1 in both perms, but was the favourite.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FLOAS LAS (TRIAL RUN) JACKPOT 2ND PASS. OPINIONS/SUGGESTIONS WANTED BY 1.50PM:
    I have put my 6 selections for dogs Las under horses for today if it helps
    Posted by wynne1938
    Hi Wynne, got most of these, except Driftwood Haze in the 4.30PM.

    Had I seen all your selections in time, I would have added it.

    In reality, I think when we come to the real thing, any selections would have to be put on this thread by mid-day, to allow me time to collate all the statistical info as well as individual's choices to produce a hybrid perm based on the two.

    Anyhow, we have most of yours coved, except the above.

    GL today!

    G

    P.S. Wynne, just for my records, have you set up the standing order as yet?
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    POOL TOTAL £80,109

    32,460.16 UNITS     LEFT GOING ON TO LEG2.

    With these types of perms/roll overs, we are really looking for some un-fancied runners to come in (but not so unfancied that we don't have them in our perm)

    Hopefully we'll have a "virtual" sweat on these today. :=)

    We probably still want fav BARAZA in the next, as it is our "banker" in one of the perms. Although we are covered with WHAT'S UP RORY and LOOKS LIKE POWER in the other perm
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  • chillingchilling
    edited April 2017
    Is it the norm for the placepot to be nearly as big as the jackpot?
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Look Like Power wins the 2nd race, which will get rid of quite a few tickets, so we would have bust perm one, but still in perm two, although it would now be a nervous watch as we have EARTHMOVES as our banker in a seller!

    Of course this is not ideal, but without spending £1K+ on a perm, we will always have to have a banker unfortunately.

    Anyhow, Come on EARTHMOVES!

    In a perfect world we could perm the whole lot that I have highlighted on the opening post. (plus Henllan Harri)
     
    However a perm that size would cost £3,969, hence the need for a banker.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    4,268.72 UNITS GOING TO LEG 3
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FLOS LAS (TRIAL RUN) JACKPOT 2ND PASS. OPINIONS/SUGGESTIONS WANTED BY 1.50PM:
    Is it the norm for the placepot to be nearly as big as the jackpot?
    Posted by chilling
    When there is no carry over, the Placepot is always a bigger pool, but almost never has a roll over.

    Jackpot Pools only get big when there is a significant carry over, that has been going on, for a good few days.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Our would be banker EARTHMOVES makes hard work of it, but wins, so we'd have a real sweat now, with a fairly large perm (perm2) for the last three races.

    Horses in the next below:
    3:55 01 - ZEROSHADESOFGREY 7/1
    		13/2 7/1
    3:55 02 - WUFF 7/2
    		4/1 4/1
    3:55 03 - UPSWING 9/2
    		3/1 3/1
    3:55 04 - ABRICOT DE L'OASIS 8/1
    		8/1 15/2
    3:55 06 - HENLLAN HARRI 7/2
    		11/2 11/2
    3:55 07 - BROWNVILLE 7/1
    		8/1 8/1
    END
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    2594.22 UNITS going on to leg 4.

    Would be looking to stay in the next few legs, but, ideally, with the most fancied horses not winning.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Photo Abricot De L'oasis and Upswing.

    Abricot much the better result, but think Upswing got it. Still in going to leg 5 either way.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017

    Upswing won, our trial perm2 has the following in Leg 5:

    4:30 02 - PERFORM 6/1
    		8/1 15/2
    4:30 03 - OUT SAM 8/1
    		8/1 9/1
    4:30 05 - MINELLA ARIS 7/1
    		6/1 6/1
    4:30 11 - VERYGOODVERYGOOD 8/1
    		10/1 10/1
    4:30 12 - ROCKY'S TREASURE 7/2
    		3/1 3/1
    4:30 14 - TEA TIME FRED 16/1
    		8/1 8/1
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    507.86 UNITS going on to Leg 5
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  • BrrrrrrrBrrrrrrr
    edited April 2017
    Obviously a lot of work goes into this, and this is definitely a good avdert for the project.

    Best of luck with this test and when you go live!
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  • bearacebearace
    edited April 2017
    Following with interest. If this was for real I think I might be getting a bit excited by now! Part of me thinks it would be best we did not win this trial  - lets save or luck for the real thing!
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Well the favourite "Rocky's Treasure" wins the 5th leg, which has pretty much guaranteed a low dividend.

    So, even if we do win in the 6th leg, we'd struggle to cover the cost of the perm. There were just too many fancied horses that came in.

    Still, at least we haven't peaked too soon. :=)

    It will be interesting to see if we would of won, and how much of our stake we'd get back.

    But no need to worry about it being a missed opportunity anyway, we wouldn't have won big here.

    Cheers,

    G


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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Our 6th leg selections in perm two are:
    5:00 01 - ROCKNROLLRAMBO 15/8
    		2/1 2/1
    5:00 04 - SHUIL TEACHT ANIAR 6/1
    		11/2 11/2
    5:00 06 - THE LAST BRIDGE 5/1
    		4/1 4/1
    5:00 08 - TRY IT SOMETIME 12/1
    		9/1 9/1
    5:00 09 - BENNYS GIRL 15/2
    		13/2 13/2
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    112.36 UNITS left into leg 6:

    Provided/If one of our 5 come in, the best result for us (in order) would be:

    Try it Sometime (10 units)
    Benny's Girl (13.5 units)
    Shuil Teacht Aniar (16.5 units)
    The Last Bridge (19.5 units)
    Rocknrollrambo (34.36 units + 2.5 fav units)
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Our total "would be" stake for the two perms would have been £915.00:

    So the dividend would need to be  /> £2K to make a potential profit (assuming we get it)

    We have favourable equity at this stage, but not by much.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Favourite wins again, was a shame, as dividend will be low, but probably over the £2K mark, so we wouldn't have lost anything. We just needed a couple of those close finishes where the favourite won to have been the other way around, and it could have been a nice dividend.

    Anyhow, we can notch it up as a "partial success" as we did get the Jackpot up.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Thanks to all for the support with this, and particularly to Roger for his help with the spreadsheets.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Dividend £2,173.30.
     
    So we'd collect £1,086.65 for a slight profit.

    Had the two photo finishes gone the other way, we probably would have been looking at an £8-10K cash.

    All hypothetical anyway, but a good trial non the less, and will have hopefully given some of you an idea of the processes involved.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • zadoczadoc
    edited April 2017


      Good work Graham, you have put in a lot of effort & have proved it can work.

      Well done.

      i will keep a watch on web site to get a feel for when they advertise following days meeting

      Roger
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: FLOS LAS (TRIAL RUN) JACKPOT. WE WOULD HAVE WON IT, BUT LOW DIVIDEND. BUT STILL A PROFIT:
      Good work Graham, you have put in a lot of effort & have proved it can work.   Well done.   i will keep a watch on Totesport web site to get a feel for when they advertise following days meeting   Roger
    Posted by zadoc
    Cheers Roger, and thanks so much for doing the initial spreadsheets.

    Did my comments re using the Racing Post prices summarised at the bottom of the race card, rather than the "bookmaker" prices on the same line of the horses name, make sense?

    It really was a big help, that you put it together for me. From my experience the Jackpot meeting is available online usually between 9pm and 10pm.

    Ideally I would like the spreadsheets by 11pm, so that I can start work on the market movers.

    I'm going to chill for a few days, and I will be busy the last two weeks of April, so I will probably do just one more trial run if/when there is a big roll over.

    All the best,

    Graham
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