JACKPOT TRIAL RUN AT FLOS LAS (SUNDAY 16TH APRIL 2017) FUN BUT SERIOUS COMPETITION. SELECT EIGHT HOR

StayOrGo

In Response to JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER, DO YOU HAVE TIME TO CONFIRM MEETING AND DO THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET?:

Hi all. Well there was a carry over of the Jackpot today, not much, just over £9K. Whilst it would not be enough of a roll over to go for it for real, we could do a trial run, as Sunday's racing is A LOT LESS competitive than today's. No guarantee of success, but certainly a fighting chance. There are three possible meetings. namely, Flos Las, Southwell(A/W) and Plumpton. Pretty sure it will be either Flos Las or Southwell (A/W). My money's on FLOS LAS . The dynamic of the races at Flos Las or Southwell (A/W) would fit in well with our strategy, although obviously we'd need a bigger roll over. But a good one to trial, as other than the small roll over, the racecards are a "good fit" for our approach. Shall we go for it? Hypothetically of course. Roger, do you have time to confirm the meeting and prep the initial spreadsheet for me? Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

 Yes, no problem

 R

StayOrGo

Hi all.

Well there was a carry over of the Jackpot today, not much, just over £9K.

Whilst it would not be enough of a roll over to go for it for real, we will do a trial run, as Sunday's racing is A LOT LESS competitive than Saturday's.

No guarantee of success, but certainly a fighting chance.

The dynamic of the races at Flos Las would fit in well with our strategy, although obviously we'd need a bigger roll over.

But a good one to trial, as other than the small roll over, the racecards are a "good fit" for our approach.

Selections below. Our choices are in blue, the one's we have removed base on people's removal choices are in yellow. (We would not be on the horses in yellow, just the blue ones:

Cost of perm would be 960 lines at 50p = £480.00

DATE	Sunday	16/04/2017	FLOS LAS
LEG/TIME	HORSE	R-POST ODDS	OV NIGHT	MORN	LATEST
1.55PM	01- CHEQUE EN BLANC	12/1	14/1	10/1	12/1
1.55PM	02 – LE BRAYE	5/1	9/2	9/2	9/2
1.55PM	03 – BALDADASH	5/1	7/1	8/1	9/1
1.55PM	04 – BE SEEING YOU	16/1	16/1	20/1	22/1
1.55PM	05 – MR CAFFREY	5/1	11/2	5/1	5/1
1.55PM	06 – CHEVALGRIS	7/1	11/1	10/1	9/1
1.55PM	07 – THE KID	4/1	5/2	3/1	9/2
1.55PM	08 – PRINCE MAHLER	4/1	7/2	6/1	9/2
1.55PM	09 – ALLA SVELTA	33/1	33/1	40/1	40/1
1.55PM	10 – TIME FOR CHAMPERS	66/1	50/1	66/1	80/1
2.25PM	01 – SWEETLITTLEKITTY	8/1	10/1	10/1	9/1
2.25PM	02 – STEEL NATIVE	2/1	11/4	10/3	11/4
2.25PM	03 – LIME STREET	8/1	12/1	10/1	17/2
2.25PM	04 – COOLE CHARMER	10/1	10/1	9/1	7/1
2.25PM	05 – BHAKTI	6/1	4/1	10/3	4/1
2.25PM	06 – RAINBOW HAZE	NON	RUNNER	N/A	N/A
2.25PM	07 – MARBLE MIST	16/1	16/1	16/1	18/1
2.25PM	08 – ROCKY ELSOM	NON	RUNNER	N/A	N/A
2.25PM	09 – MIDNIGHT QUEEN	33/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
2.25PM	10 – GUITING POWER	6/1	7/1	6/1	9/2
2.55PM	01 – JENKINS	1/3	2/7	1/3	3/10
2.55PM	02 – PERUVIEN BLEU	6/1	6/1	6/1	5/1
2.55PM	03 – A BOLD MOVE	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
2.55PM	04 – BIG CHIP AND PIN	16/1	25/1	25/1	28/1
2.55PM	05 – BUBSY BURBRIDGE	25/1	25/1	33/1	33/1
2.55PM	06 – LOOKSABITLIKEBRYAN	33/1	25/1	25/1	33/1
2.55PM	07 – VIRGINIA CHICK	50/1	66/1	66/1	80/1
2.55PM	08 – TIMELY GIFT	50/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
2.55PM	09 – ALL DOLLED UP	100/1	200/1	200/1	200/1
3.30PM	01 – MAGUIRE'S GLEN	6/1	8/1	9/1	12/1
3.30PM	02 – SEVEN NATION ARMY	12/1	14/1	18/1	20/1
3.30PM	03 – RATIFY	NON	RUNNER	N/A	N/A
3.30PM	04 – HEADLY'S BRIDGE	9/1	15/2	7/1	7/1
3.30PM	05 – STAGE ONE	3/1	11/4	11/4	11/4
3.30PM	06 – LOOKS LIKE POWER	6/1	7/1	7/1	13/2
3.30PM	07 – BARTON ROSE	8/1	17/2	17/2	9/1
3.30PM	08 – COPPER BIRCH	14/1	16/1	18/1	18/1
3.30PM	09 – KINGSTON	25/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
3.30PM	10 – CHANKILLO	16/1	16/1	20/1	20/1
3.30PM	11 – KINGS CROSS	14/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
3.30PM	12 – CAWDOR HOUSE BERT	8/1	9/1	17/2	9/1
4.05PM	01 – LIKE THE SOUND	3/1	10/3	7/2	7/2
4.05PM	02 – LOUGH DERG FARMER	6/4	11/8	6/4	6/4
4.05PM	03 – BLUE RHYTHM	50/1	66/1	80/1	80/1
4.05PM	04 – CLONDAW RIGGER	66/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
4.05PM	05 – GRIFFINGTON	50/1	66/1	80/1	100/1
4.05PM	06 – PADDYS MOTORBIKE	4/1	7/2	3/1	11/4
4.05PM	07 – WOODFORT	7/2	4/1	11/2	6/1
4.40PM	01 – PHOBIAPHILIAC	4/1	9/2	3/1	3/1
4.40PM	02 – SIR MANGAN	6/1	9/2	9/2	5/1
4.40PM	03 – FORZA MILAN	NON	RUNNER	N/A	N/A
4.40PM	04 – HERE'S HERBIE	12/1	12/1	9/1	8/1
4.40PM	05 – MAXANISI	7/1	9/1	11/1	11/1
4.40PM	06 – ALF 'N' DOR	8/1	9/1	10/1	9/1
4.40PM	07 – COUNT MERIBEL	10/1	11/1	9/1	9/1
4.40PM	08 – COOL SKY	4/1	5/1	7/2	3/1

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Hi, does anyone know if the Jackpot meeting has been decided for tomorrow yet?

I can't see it yet and was hoping to do an early study.

zadoc

  Hi G

  i went on live chat a while ago but they said they did'nt know & it might be early in morning!

  R

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER HAS KINDLY AGREED TO CONFIRM MEETING AND PREP THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET. TY ZADOC!:

  Hi G   i went on live chat a while ago but they said they did'nt know & it might be early in morning!   R
Posted by zadoc

OK mate, not to worry. If it does happen to come across while you are still awake, then all well and good, but don't stay up all night waiting :=)

wynne1938

FWIW this is my final breakdown after paying £5 for timeform racecard information

Ffos Las:

             1.55  2 Le Braye 9/2

                      5 Mr Caffrey 11/2

             2,25  2 Steel Native 11/4

                     5 Bhakti 4/1

            2.55  1 Jenkins    2/7

           3.30 

                   5 Stage One  11/4

                   6 Looks Like Power 7/1

                   1 Maguires Glen 8/1

                  

           4.05 1 Like The Sound 10/3

                  2 Lough Derg Farmar 11/8

                  6 Paddys Motorbike  7/2

           4.40

                  2 Sir Mangan 9/2

                  1 Phobiaphiliac 3/1

                   8 Cool Sky 3/1

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER HAS KINDLY AGREED TO CONFIRM MEETING AND PREP THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET. TY ZADOC!:

My initial selections Ffos Las:              1.55  3 Baldadash  7/1                       5 Mr Caffrey 11/2              2,25  2 Steel Native 11/4             2.55  1 Jenkins    2/7            3.30  4 Hedley's Bridge 8/1                    5 Stage One  11/4                    6 Looks Like Power 7/1                    7 Barton Rose 8/1                    12 Cawdor House Bert 9/1            4.05 1 Like The Sound 3/1                   2 Lough Derg Farmar 11/10                   6 Paddys Motorbike  7/2            4.40 1.Phobiaphiliac 4/1                   2 Sir Mangan 10/3                   3 Forza Milan 11/4                   8 Cool Sky 9/2
Posted by wynne1938

Cheers Wynne. I think/hope the Jackpot is at Flos Las, have you heard anything?

mkgunner

its ffos las by totepool twitter page

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER HAS KINDLY AGREED TO CONFIRM MEETING AND PREP THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET. TY ZADOC!:

its ffos las by totepool twitter page
Posted by mkgunner

Great synchronicity. Thx MK!

StayOrGo

I wonder if Zadoc is still awake to do the spreadsheet?

StayOrGo

I've just seen it was posted on twitter 3 hours ago.

For some reason on twitter when I search on @TOTEPOOL it doesn't show most recent at the top, does anyone know how to change?

Cheers,

G

mkgunner

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER HAS KINDLY AGREED TO CONFIRM MEETING AND PREP THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET. TY ZADOC!:

I've just seen it was posted on twitter 3 hours ago. For some reason on twitter when I search on @TOTEPOOL it doesn't show most recent at the top, does anyone know how to change? Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

sorry cant help,im on twitter  but not clued up on it.

StayOrGo

Hi Zadoc.

Not sure if you have gone to bed. I didn't want to do the spreadsheet if you were too.

I'll give it until midnight and if I haven't heard from you I will do it then.

Hopefully you will see this in the morning and not duplicate the effort.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Hi Zadoc, just to let you know, I am doing the spreasheet now.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

FYI Zadoc, going forward it may be best to have two templates, one for flat racing that has a column for the draw number and one for jumps that doesn't.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER HAS KINDLY AGREED TO CONFIRM MEETING AND PREP THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET. TY ZADOC!:

My initial selections Ffos Las:              1.55  2 Le Braye 9/2                       5 Mr Caffrey 11/2              2,25  2 Steel Native 11/4                      5 Bhakti 4/1             2.55  1 Jenkins    2/7            3.30                     5 Stage One  11/4                    6 Looks Like Power 7/1                               4.05 1 Like The Sound 3/1                   2 Lough Derg Farmar 11/10                   6 Paddys Motorbike  7/2            4.40 1.Phobiaphiliac 4/1                   2 Sir Mangan 10/3                   3 Forza Milan 11/4                   8 Cool Sky 9/2
Posted by wynne1938

Cheers for this Wynne, I am pretty sure I will be using most of these, may have to omit one or two. Jenkins will definately be the banker.

GL,

G

wynne1938

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN TOMORROW (SUNDAY 15TH APRIL). ROGER HAS KINDLY AGREED TO CONFIRM MEETING AND PREP THE INITIAL SPREADSHEET. TY ZADOC!:

FWIW this is my final breakdown after paying £5 for timeform racecard information Ffos Las:              1.55  2 Le Braye 9/2                       5 Mr Caffrey 11/2              2,25  2 Steel Native 11/4                      5 Bhakti 4/1             2.55  1 Jenkins    2/7            3.30                     5 Stage One  11/4                    6 Looks Like Power 7/1                               4.05 1 Like The Sound 10/3                   2 Lough Derg Farmar 11/8                   6 Paddys Motorbike  7/2            4.40                   2 Sir Mangan 9/2                   3 Forza Milan 3/1                  
Posted by wynne1938

See my latest information above

StayOrGo

Hi all.

I have updated the opening post with a "first pass" for Flos Las.

This has been purely statistical based (to cover 70% or more of the betting market in each leg) without looking at a single piece of horse form (yet)

So it is not a case of which horses should we have IN our Jackpot. The question is the opposite:

Of those highlighted in BLUE, who can we leave out?

We need to get rid of about EIGHT HORSES for the perm to be about the right size, including AT LEAST THREE from the last race, where I have selected all of them.

So, my question for you form studier's, is simple:

GIVE ME EIGHT I CAN OMIT

Who is prepared to put their head on the parapet and potentially remove a horse that costs us the hypothetical Jackpot.

I have already done the shortlist, so if something wins that is not on there, you can blame me. I may add a springer or two back in later :=)

This is ABSOLUTELY the sort of situation I expect us to be in when we "GO LIVE" so if you want to be actively involved in horse selection after GO-LIVE, it would be good if you could contribute to this task today.

Please post your suggested "removals" no later than 1.30PM.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

To track how well you do with "removals", I am awarding a points system as follows:

Successfully remove a 5/1 shot or less (5 points)
Successfully remove a 11/2 to 15/2 shot (4 points)
Successfully remove a 8/1 to 11/1 shot (3 points)
Successfully remove an 12/1 shot or bigger (2 points)

If your removal wins at 12/1 or bigger (minus 10 points)
If your removal wins at 8/1 to 11/1    (minus 8 points)
If your removal wins at 11/2 to 15/2   (minus 6 points)
If your removal wins at 5/1 or less     (minus 5 points)

We will keep track of the AVERAGE points per horse, per person, so we know who to listen to at go live. I may amend the points scoring system if it proves not to be optimal.

I will also compete in this task.

Please note, suggested removals, MUST, be currently highlighted in BLUE on the opening post.

Can every person competing/contributing in this, please post their EIGHT horses prior to 1.00PM.

We will keep a league table from now on, in all trial runs and then a new league table will start at go-live.

The price used to determine the points will be that in "THE LATEST" column, as this is the best info available at the time the JACKPOT is placed.

This is a fun, but also serious comp, if we can get the "best candidates" for selecting horses to remove, it will greatly assist our chances of winning when we do it for real.

Cheers,

G

wynne1938

Good night.

Have had some interesting reading.

Based on that I have made a list on my thread "Horses for today"

Just for interest to see how many winners one can get for professional information,

I know it pays for itself at the big meetings like Cheltenham

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN AT FLOS LAS (SUNDAY 16TH APRIL 2017):

Good night. Have had some interesting reading. Based on that I have made a list on my thread "Horses for today" Just for interest to see how many winners one can get for professional information, I know it pays for itself at the big meetings like Cheltenham
Posted by wynne1938

GL Wynne, I would really be interested in your EIGHT to REMOVE. :=)

StayOrGo

WHO CAN PICK EIGHT LOSERS! :=)

StayOrGo

One last point, if anyone thinks I have NOT highlighted in BLUE something that they feel has a reasonable chance of winning, please post that here too.

StayOrGo

My EIGHT "hopeful" losers (including three in the 4.40PM) are:

1.55 FL: 05 - MR CAFFREY (11/2)

2.25 FL: 01 - SWEETLITTLEKITTY (10/1)
2.25 FL:  06 - RAINBOW HAZE (9/1) (RAINBOW HAZE IS A NR, SO HAVE REPLACED WITH BALDERDASH IN 1ST)

3.30 FL: 01 - MAGUIRE'S GLEN (8/1)

4.05 FL: 07 - WOODFORT (4/1)

4.40 FL: 04 - HERE'S HERBIE (12/1)
4.40 FL: 06 - ALF 'N' DOR (9/1)
4.40 FL: 05 - MAXANISI (9/1)

Please use the format of my selections above as your template. Non Syndicate members are also welcome to post their selections for removal here too.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Just to stress the importance of this task.

The cost of the full perm on the opening post would be prohibitive.

It would be 6,720 lines = £3,360

The size of the perm after removing my 8 selections is:

1,500 lines = £750. (A lot but achievable)

Having people who are adept in correctly selecting "losers" from a narrowed list of selections, would significantly increase our chance of success.

Cheers,

G

Snuffer

Never tried to pick 8 losers before but can't be too hard surely? Here goes:

1:55 FL: 05 - MR CAFFREY (11/2)

2:25 FL: 01 - SWEETLITTLEKITTY (17/2)

2:25 FL: 06 - RAINBOW HAZE (15/2)

3:30 FL: 12 - CAWDOR HOUSE BERT (8/1)

4:05 FL: 06 - PADDYS MOTORCYCLE (10/3)

4:40 FL: 05 - MAXANISI (9/1)

4:40 FL: 07 - COUNT MERIBEL (10/1)

4:40 FL: 08 - COOL SKY (9/2)

mkgunner

My EIGHT "hopeful" losers (including three in the 4.40PM) are:(HIGHLIGHTED IN BLUE)

1.55 FL: 02 - LA BRAYE (9/2)

2.25 FL: 10 - GUITING POWER (7-1)    

2.25 FL: 06 - RAINBOW HAZE (9-1)                       

3.30 FL: 04 - HEADLY'S BRIDGE (7-1)

4.05 FL: 07 - WOODFORT (9/2)             

4.40 FL: 02 - SIR MANGAN (9/2)

4.40 FL: 04 - HERE'S HERBIE (12-1)

4.40 FL: 05 - MAXANISI (10-1)

                   

unknown_username

ive been backing losers for years i should be good at this

1:55 - LE BRAYE (11-2) 

         THE KID (11-4) 

2:25 - 

         SWEET LITTLE KITTY (9-1)

3:30 - MAGUIRE'S GLEN (8-1)

          

4:05 - PADDY'S MOTERBIKE (10-3)

         WOODFORT (5-1)

4:40   HERE'S HERBIE (12-1) now 8-1

         alf'n'dor (9-1)

for me id have more in the last, it really is anybody's race with good cases for all

All odds are from sporting life website at time of posting

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2017-04-16/ffos-las/racecard/423518/siddell-environmental-services-handicap-hurdle

was harder than i thought picking losers 

looking at the last all have reasons they can win.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN AT FLOS LAS (SUNDAY 16TH APRIL 2017) FUN BUT SERIOUS COMPETITION. SELECT EIGHT HORSES TO REMOVE! I URGE ALL THOSE INTERESTED IN SELECTING HORSES AFTER GO LIVE TO TAKE PART!:

ive been backing losers for years i should be good at this 1:55 - LE BRAYE (11-2)           THE KID (11-4)  2:25 - RAINBOW HAZE (8-1)          SWEET LITTLE KITTY (9-1) 3:30 - MAGUIRE'S GLEN (8-1)            4:05 - PADDY'S MOTERBIKE (10-3)          WOODFORT (5-1) 4:40   HERE'S HERBIE (12-1) All odds are from sporting life website at time of posting https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2017-04-16/ffos-las/racecard/423518/siddell-environmental-services-handicap-hurdle was harder than i thought picking losers  looking at the last all have reasons they can win.
Posted by MICKYBLUE

Hi Micky, thanks for this. As per the instructions.

Ideally I wanted three horses to remove in the 4.40PM, and a total of eight.

You have a total of 8, but only one from the 4.40PM.

Could you please amend.

Cheers,

G

Cheers,

G

zadoc

 Hi G, sorry did'nt help last night - don't understand the logic of announcing jackpot meeting on twitter but not on live stream.

  13:55  03: BALDADASH (7/1) 

  14:25  01: SWEETLITTLEKITTY (10/1)

  15:30  04: HEADLY'S BRIDGE (15/2)

  16:05  07: WOODFORT (4/1)

  16:40  02: SIR MANGAN (9/2)

             06: ALF 'N' DOR (9/1) 

             07: COUNT MERIBEL (11/1)

             08: COOL SKY (8/1) 

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN AT FLOS LAS (SUNDAY 16TH APRIL 2017) FUN BUT SERIOUS COMPETITION. SELECT EIGHT HORSES TO REMOVE! I URGE ALL THOSE INTERESTED IN SELECTING HORSES AFTER GO LIVE TO TAKE PART!:

 Hi G, sorry did'nt help last night - don't understand the logic of announcing jackpot meeting on twitter but not on live stream.   13:55  03: BALDADASH (7/1)    14:25  01: SWEETLITTLEKITTY (10/1)   15:30  04: HEADLY'S BRIDGE (15/2)   16:05  07: WOODFORT (4/1)   16:40  02: SIR MANGAN (9/2)              06: ALF 'N' DOR (9/1)               07: COUNT MERIBEL (11/1)              08: COOL SKY (8/1) 
Posted by zadoc

Thanks for the selections Roger.

Not your fault re twitter, I didn't know either until MK pointed it out, but at least we know to check there going forward.

GL today.