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JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017. NOT ONLY WOULD WE HAVE WON IT, BUT WE'D HAVE BEEN THE ONLY

StayOrGoStayOrGo
edited April 2017 in Betting Chat
Potentially same gig as today, we'll pretend there is a roll over. :=)
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Hi, if anyone spots where the Jackpot is tomorrow, please post it on here.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Hi Roger, I am going to try for an early night tonight.

    If you are around and have time, do you think you could prep the spreadsheet for tomorrow's Jackpot?

    I will then update it at about 10.15AM and people will have two hours to pick their "REMOVALS". no later than 12.15PM

    Cheers,

    G


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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    With the Jackpot being won today, they usually guarantee the Jackpot Pool at either £5K or £10K, so they will definately be trying to pick the most competitive meeting.

    Which to me looks like Fakenham.

    It ould be nice if it was Huntingdon (My local track, 5 minutes from my house) or Southwell as they are "easier", but Fakenham is by no means impossible.

    So my money is on Fakenham, but I haven't seen anything official yet.

    GL.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    After today there will be no trial runs for a few days, unless someone else wants to do it, as I am away until the weekend.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Hi Roger, I just sent you an email.

    Do you know where the Jackpot is yet?

    I can't see it anywhere.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    Opps, wasn't looking properly, there is Chepstow, Redcar and Market Rasen too.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    And Fairyhouse, but I don't think they have it on the Irish meeting.
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  • zadoczadoc
    edited April 2017


      Hi Graham,
     
      Have just been on Live Chat and was told Jackpot meeting tomorrow is REDCAR.

      Roger
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017

    It has to be RECDAR doesn't it!

     

    Tough card and I'm only guessing

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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
      Hi Graham,     Have just been on Live Chat and was told Jackpot meeting tomorrow is REDCAR.   Roger
    Posted by zadoc

    LOL, I just figured that, quite a lot of runners and competitive, so we would swerve it in reality, are you still Ok to do it?

    Mainly for the removals exercise. Meanwhile I will pick up the drawbias data.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    OK, so it is Redcar on the flat.

    The going is Good To Firm.

    Interesting draw bias stats. Summary below from drawbias.com:

    FIVE FURLONGS:

    Conclusions

     A definite bias favouring low drawn runners. The bias seems to be greater in small fields for some reason.

    SIX FURLONGS:

    Conclusions

     The six furlong races at Redcar are run over the same straight course as the five furlong races, however although there is a bias towards low over five furlongs, the bias seems to be reversed over 6 furlongs at Redcar, with high slightly favoured. Which is hard to explain.

    SEVEN FURLONGS:

    Conclusions

     Over seven furlongs at Redcar their does not appear to be any draw advantage at all.

    EIGHT FURLONGS:

    Conclusions

     As with the seven furlongs at Redcar, there doesn't appear to be a draw bias over a mile at Redcar.

    PACE ANALYSIS:

    An interesting result here. The 5 furlong course definitely appears to favour front runners, however the further distance they go the more hold up horses are favoured, meaning that over a mile Redcar is one of the worst courses for front runners. All races up to a mile are run on a straight course, and it is generally harder to make all over a straight course, which makes the 5 furlong findings hard to understand.

    In terms of the individual distances, shown below is how Redcar ranks :


    5 Furlongs – 4th out of 31 courses
    6 Furlongs – 11th out of 29 courses
    7 Furlongs – 15th out of 24 courses
    8 Furlongs – 27th out of 30 courses

    END



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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited April 2017
    we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not.

    ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not. ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.
    Posted by MICKYBLUE

    I take your point, but we'll still do REDCAR as a trial.

    Obviously we wouldn't touch it with a barge pole in reality, but it will be interesting for the removals.

    I am probably going to ask people to remove 10 horses this time.

    Also, I think zadoc is working away on the spreadsheets as I write this. It will still be a useful exercise, and it wouldn't really count as a failure, as we know we wouldn't do it for real.

    I think it is good practice to get people looking for horses that they think won't win. I am sure we will be in a situation in reality, at some time or another, when we have to "break down" open looking handicaps in a flat race.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not. ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.
    Posted by MICKYBLUE

    Hi Micky, I agree, anyone doing the Jackpot at Redcar today is just donating to the prize pool for the inevitable roll over.

    However, I am going to do a big perm for myself for the placepot here using the selections that we come up with. I think the placepot will pay a minimum of £200 here, and possibly 4 figures.

    So if we look at it in that way, it will be a very worthwhile task.

    So who wants to help me with my placepot? :=)
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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited April 2017
    My Selections Redcar
    2.05 9 Kinloch Pride  9/2
           7 Carlton Frankie  7/2
           6 Kachess  11/1

    2.35 7 Armandihan 7/2
           10 Ninepin Bowler 7/2
           9 Mellor Brook 8/1

    3.10  6 Everything For You 11/8
            5 Belgravian  10/18

    3.45 13 Laughton 5/1
           1 Wentworth Falls 5/1

    4.20 8 Roller 10/3

    4.55 13 El Principe 6/1
           16 Ad Vitam  11/1
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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited April 2017
    I wii have a £20 share in your placepot if available

    Night Night
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    I wii have a £20 share in your placepot if available Night Night
    Posted by wynne1938

    Hi Wynne, I can't really do shares in my Redcar Placepot as it could be awkward if others want to come in on it too, and it makes things "untidy" as far as the Jackpot Syndicate and audit trail is concerned.

    I hope you understand. I just want to keep things "clean" and separate until go live, so any bets I do until then are just for me and others can do their own.

    Sorry, but I just don't want to be in a situation where 4 or 5 members of the syndicate come in on something that others don't.

    It could make things awkward.

    Cheers,

    Graham

    P.S. I really hope you can give me your fifteen removals on the other thread.


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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017 : Hi Wynne, I can't really do shares in my Redcar Placepot as it could be awkward if others want to come in on it too, and it makes things "untidy" as far as the Jackpot Syndicate and audit trail is concerned. I hope you understand. I just want to keep things "clean" and separate until go live, so any bets I do until then are just for me and others can do their own. Sorry, but I just don't want to be in a situation where 4 or 5 members of the syndicate come in on something that others don't. It could make things awkward. Cheers, Graham P.S. I really hope you ca
    n give me your fifteen removals on the other thread.
    Posted by StayOrGo

    That is ok.

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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited April 2017
    wynne you going to do the jackpot losers mate?


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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited April 2017
    Feeling Lucky
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    we wouldnt do the jackpot here so our trial run should be what would suit us imo it doesnt matter if tote select it or not. ive not looked properly at races but redcar looks a nightmare. no banker for 1.
    Posted by MICKYBLUE

    I'm not quite sure how it happened Micky, but we would have SCOOPED the lot, had we done the Jackpot, for a relatively small perm.

    UNBELIEVABLE JEFF!
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited April 2017


    Had a busy day so just catching up....nice one!! Looking good when we do go for it for real. Well done Graham and all who helped out today.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017 : I'm not quite sure how it happened Micky, but we would have SCOOPED the lot, had we done the Jackpot, for a relatively small perm. UNBELIEVABLE JEFF!
    Posted by StayOrGo
    i bet other jackpot syndicates thought the same. id still make you correct for not trying on this sort of meeting.
    i messed up by trying to use scoones as a banker in my placepot, hope you faired beter 
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited April 2017
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017:
    In Response to Re: JACKPOT TRIAL RUN MONDAY 17TH APRIL 2017 : i bet other jackpot syndicates thought the same. id still make you correct for not trying on this sort of meeting. i messed up by trying to use scoones as a banker in my placepot, hope you faired beter 
    Posted by MICKYBLUE

    Yeh, I did OK cos I had the winner as well as SCOONES in that leg. The only trouble when you get something that comes in from a massive price to favourite, is that it can often just be an over enthusiastic trainer or owner.

    There is also the odd case when connections actually hype something up and then lay it. So one does need to be careful when the change of price is so extreme.

    But yes, we would never have done this one, as there was no roll over and the card looked very tough indeed. I was most surprised tbh.

    I'm away for a few days now, I will calculate and update remover scores upon my return.

    If you guys want to do some trials without me (Roger maybe?), please do.

    Cheers,

    G




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