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UKOPS hand 1 - JJ
Posting 2 hands from UKOPS to hopefully get a bit of discussion going. Not posting these as bad beat stories (I won 1 and lost 1 of the 2 I will post). I also think one involved a good call and one call was questionable.
Anyways WWYD here with JJ...
The scene: The villain has 3bet shoved on me twice, although both times we were both in later table positions.
It is an £11 UKOPS BH with roughly 30-35 left, I think I was sitting around 14th and average stacks around 55k (probably not exactly correct but close enough).
Will post my thoughts after we hopefully get a few replies.
Anyways WWYD here with JJ...
The scene: The villain has 3bet shoved on me twice, although both times we were both in later table positions.
It is an £11 UKOPS BH with roughly 30-35 left, I think I was sitting around 14th and average stacks around 55k (probably not exactly correct but close enough).
Will post my thoughts after we hopefully get a few replies.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
| SB | Small blind | 1250.00 | 1250.00 | 34912.50 | |
| BB | Big blind | 2500.00 | 3750.00 | 57137.50 | |
|
| Your hole cards | · J · J |
|
|
|
| UTG | Call | 2500.00 | 6250.00 | 38536.00 | |
| markycash | Raise | 7500.00 | 13750.00 | 58267.00 | |
| Villain | All-in | 74241.50 | 87991.50 | 0.00 | |
| BTN | Fold | ||||
| SB | Fold | ||||
| BB | Fold | ||||
| UTG | Fold | ||||
| markycash | … | … | … | … |
Comments
Will see if there are more replies before I give my thoughts though.
I mostly tend to think that these kind of large shoves are mostly AK,AQ,1010,99 from players uncomfortable playing post flop on tricky boards. Think I call then smash my mouse to smithereens when Villain shows KK.
I agree with Kevilfish re QQ. However, the rest of the logic from that well known firm of accountants Lambert & Bates (if only it had been 18UButler) has to be right.
This is quite close-there is no clear wrong answer. However, I am definitely calling on the available info, even though I am fearing QQ. I feel that the money already invested makes this as a call, as I think you are about 50% (maybe even 55%) to win this hand.
I mentioned in my blog that I had left a hand out of an update because I found it interesting, was dissapointed in myself for calling, although did feel it was technically a call and wanted to post it here. This was the one I meant.
Obviously not all context from the tables comes across when we post these hands.
The player had, as mentioned 3bet jammed on me twice previously. On both occasions we were in later table positions and he had nobody else to worry about to act behind him. The player had also said "well done for leading the leaderboard" in chat, or something to that effect, and I felt he was trying to target me. This information probably matters a bit in the general context of the hand.
I was imagining the hand from my opponents perspective as it unfolded. He had seen someone limp UTG which could mean several things (including them having total monster hands like QQ KK AA). They have then seen me from UTG+1 raise and apparently look like I am trying to isolate this player. It has to look to him like I am prepared to get it in with a player who has close to 70% of my stack size so he may reasonably assume I might be prepared to get 100% of my stack in here.
I thought there was a small-medium chance he was shoving here (considering the strength shown already and other players to act behind) with 99 TT AQ type hands. I guess an even smaller chance of the other 2 jacks as well. It seemed more likely to me he had AA KK AK type hands. I agree many players with AA KK here will be a bit more coy, but as this player seemed to be 'trying to get me' my gut reaction was that he had AA or KK and had got a bit over excited. Perhaps thinking 'I've got him this time'. I certainly did not feel I was generally going to be in good condition against this player in this spot.
So my gut instinct and some of the logic had me concluding that instafolding and keeping a playable stack would be the right thing to do in this exact spot. By the time it folded around to me however... My thinking had diverged onto the solution that most of you have suggested and I though "nah, no way I am or can fold jacks here" and I called. He did have the KK though and my first read and gut instinct were spot on.
Not trying to be results orientated at all here. I made a couple of big inducing plays to encourage shoves from players when I had much weaker holdings in other games (some working successfully, some not). I just thought on reflection that my first read and gut instinct made sense, so was disappointed in myself for not taking on them on board appropriately.
Again thanks for the replies and if anyone agrees or thinks I am barking mad for coming to this conclusion I would be happy to hear their thoughts
Player
Action
Cards
Amount
Pot
Balance
SB
Small blind
1250.00
1250.00
34912.50
BB
Big blind
2500.00
3750.00
57137.50
Your hole cards
· J
· J
UTG
Call
2500.00
6250.00
38536.00
markycash
Raise
7500.00
13750.00
58267.00
Villain
All-in
74241.50
87991.50
0.00
BTN
Fold
SB
Fold
BB
Fold
UTG
Fold
markycash
All-in
58267.00
146258.50
0.00
Villain
Unmatched bet
8474.50
137784.00
8474.50
markycash
Show
· J
· J
Villain
Show
· K
· K
Flop
· Q
· 9
· 8
Turn
· 5
River
· 6
Villain
Win
Pair of Kings
137784.00
146258.50
If a solid reg done this then it would obviously be screaming strength. However, they would know it is screaming strength so if they were balancing their range in such scenarios to any extent they could be doing this with or without AA or KK and we would just have to go with our specific read at the time.
I don't know what this player does this with as he hadn't been doing this so. I would be flummoxed and have to go with my feeling at the time. As played I felt they gave me enough info to get away from the hand. If they had made it 18-20k it would have been tough. I would like to say it is they same decision and I would want to make a good fold but I don't have a high amount of confidence I would have.
P.S. If other players at the table had shoved I would probably have been calling and not regretting it, whether they had AA KK or not. I just felt this player in this table position had gave enough info for us to get away from the hand.
It's the fact he didn't do this, he took a line that gives himself more FE that imo means his range is wider and wide enough that we have to call. I'm not writing off the idea he ever has KK+ I just think it's less likely than other hands.
In a vaccuum against a random player it obviously makes perfect sense that if they plough their whole stack in we might fold and if they realise this then it makes KK less likely. Im not sure we can assume everyone is thinking that way though. With many players big bets may just simply be big hands. Also even a more deeply thinking player or super strong reg may feel the optimal line in certain hands to extract maximum chips from an opponent may be to just ship it in as was done here even with AA KK. Would help disguise their hand, get maximum value and save the risk of them losing their opponent on certain flops.
Blinds are 1200-2400, 6 handed, and UTG makes a small raise to just over 5k. Isaac Haxton in the C/O with JJ (180k stack) makes it 16,800. The BTN with 40BB's (102k stack) 4bet shoves. Haxton has more chips than I did in this example (therefore can afford to go with this and still have a meaningful stack if he loses). The BB stack is only 25% more than mine in this hand so effectively it is quite similar.
Getting almost 2/1 on a call (better odds than I had) I fully expected him to call, especially after the discussion here. He folds though and BTN 4 bet shover takes it down with AK.
I know it is not quite the same and is for serious $$ but I found the similarities interesting. I would be snapping in that position getting 2/1, especially knowing the opponents are capable of making these plays thinner.
Hand is here
Fast forward to the hand @ 4 minutes 57 secs.
I definitely agree there are differences. A 'bad laydown' getting almost 2/1 with jacks could be pretty costly though for all the reasons you mention. I also think the 'would someone just shove a monster' discussion in this spot is similar to the hand in the thread. Is the BTN just jamming KK AA etc? If not and AQ/AK etc is also included in the mix then the odds are there to be calling.