I had a crack at the PLACEPOT at Thirsk today, (to be clear, just for me, not a syndicate bet), mainly focusing on the market movers and the extreme draw bias that exists.
Here are my selections:
Bet Details
Date/Time
Stake
Return
Bogsnog (6) The Name's Paver (2) Beverley Bullet (3)
I think doing placepots on a track where there is a big draw bias could be +ev.
Comments about Thirsk from drawbias.com below.
5 FURLONGS
Conclusions
Wow!! What a massive bias. In good or better ground unless you are drawn on the top half, which is the stands side, then forget it. When the ground is soft the bias doesn't seem to exist, and it is thought that the far side rail is faster in soft ground which would explain this.
6 FURLONGS:
Conclusions
The 6 furlongs at Thirsk is run over the same straight course as the 5 furlongs. Again there appears to be a big bias favouring high drawn runners.
7 FURLONGS:
Conclusions
The 7 furlongs at Thirsk is around one turn, and the draw stats seem to indicate a medium advantage in being drawn low when the ground is good or better. When the ground is soft it actually appears to be better to be drawn high.
8 FURLONGS:
Conclusions
The bias at Thirsk over a mile does not appear to exist.
They were absoluely spot on today, on the GOOD and drying ground!
Not sure whether to celebrate or cry as I had all six winners , in my perm above, but only did the Placepot. A £1.00 SP win accumulator would have paid £115,273.12 , way more that you could get from the pool, hence why you don't do it on open cards like these. Bit gutted in a way, it kind of makes my £874.56 return look a bit paultry, but happy nontheless, a win is a win as they say. Note to self, perhaps do a small accumulator on my placepot selections, although it probably won't happen again for a while. Lets save it for the syndicate anyway. :=) Posted by StayOrGo
well done graham on placepot but also very sick at the same time(think i would cry)
Comments
Here are my selections:
The Name's Paver (2)
Beverley Bullet (3)
Muscika (1)
Mabs Cross (11)
Judy Woods (1)
Kroy (4)
Arnold (7)
Kaeso (8)
Scotch Myst (10)
Skellig Michael (3)
Bismarck The Flyer (5)
Mr Strutter (8)
Regal Decree (10)
The Lock Master (2)
Melabi (3)
Whitecliff Park (11)
Zanetto (3)
Grandad's World (5)
Tote Placepot, 720 bets * £0.20
Wow!! What a massive bias. In good or better ground unless you are drawn on the top half, which is the stands side, then forget it. When the ground is soft the bias doesn't seem to exist, and it is thought that the far side rail is faster in soft ground which would explain this.
The 6 furlongs at Thirsk is run over the same straight course as the 5 furlongs. Again there appears to be a big bias favouring high drawn runners.
The 7 furlongs at Thirsk is around one turn, and the draw stats seem to indicate a medium advantage in being drawn low when the ground is good or better. When the ground is soft it actually appears to be better to be drawn high.
The bias at Thirsk over a mile does not appear to exist.