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Should I lay this down? Hand History #1177688243 (23:12 30/06/2017) Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance GODFATH100 Small blind 600.00 600.00 58379.01 HAYSIE Big blind 1200.00 1800.00 36313.32 Your hole cards A A BADMANB8C Fold PADSTER13 Fold Wiked Fold StayOrGo Raise 2400.00 4200.00 76817.25 GODFATH100 Fold HAYSIE Call 1200.00 5400.00 35113.32 Flop 5 7 K HAYSIE Check StayOrGo Bet 2700.00 8100.00 74117.25 HAYSIE Call 2700.00 10800.00 32413.32 Turn 3 HAYSIE Check StayOrGo Bet 5400.00 16200.00 68717.25 HAYSIE Raise 16200.00 32400.00 16213.32 StayOrGo Fold HAYSIE Muck HAYSIE Win 21600.00 37813.32 HAYSIE Return 10800.00 0.00 48613.32 Cheers, GNO!
Posted by StayOrGo
Comments
Hand History #1177688243 (23:12 30/06/2017)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceGODFATH100Small blind 600.00600.0058379.01HAYSIEBig blind 1200.001800.0036313.32 Your hole cardsAA BADMANB8CFold PADSTER13Fold WikedFold StayOrGoRaise 2400.004200.0076817.25GODFATH100Fold HAYSIECall 1200.005400.0035113.32Flop 57K HAYSIECheck StayOrGoBet 2700.008100.0074117.25HAYSIECall 2700.0010800.0032413.32Turn 3 HAYSIECheck StayOrGoBet 5400.0016200.0068717.25HAYSIERaise 16200.0032400.0016213.32StayOrGoFold HAYSIEMuck HAYSIEWin 21600.00 37813.32HAYSIEReturn 10800.000.0048613.32
Cheers,
G
If Haysie has a couple of broadway cards he has at best top pair and could also have a lot of combos which completely missed. Therefore I wouldn't be too worried about losing turn value to hopefully extract value on the river (either from opponent reacting to your turn check by bluffing river or by it going check/bet/call on the river if opponent has any showdown value).
The same can be said for a lot of pocket pairs which haven't found a set, the turn check may set you up to extract value on the river.
While we may be losing a street of value by checking the turn we could equally be gaining a street of action if opponent was floating the flop and has air.
If Haysie has found a set then the turn check also controls the pot a bit.
Also by checking the turn you may get a more solid read on what opponent has by his reaction on the river. If bet sizing or history between you make you think there is weakness on river or you have opponent on a top pair type hand you would have the option of reraising to extract maximum value still.
Edit: just realised I didn't actually answer the question and offered a lot of thoughts which were not asked for and may seem irrelevant. Apologies for this, wasn't the intention. For me the turn is just where it all gets so difficult, hence the ramblings above.
As played I think it is really difficult to know where you are and just boils down to a read on opponent or the history between you both.
Looks like air/top pair or a set
I guess there are some possible 2 pair combos but not many.
the computer says no.
;-)
My opinion? Fold. I expect him to beat my one pair 90% of the time here, almost certainly a set.
Yeah I have to admit it, I can be full of sh%% sometimes!
I call.......;-)