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I've just started playing 6 max cash games in the last couple of weeks and I'm doing pretty well at $0.05/$0.10 and looking toward moving up through the levels. That said I'm still a bit iffy on a lot of things - Here's a hand that combines reads with odds, I want to know if it's a +EV move:
I get dealt A5o utg. I raise to $0.30. The table is really passive and I've been winning pretty much twice my fair share of pots, mostly preflop or with one c-bet.
The guy to my left reraises to $1, he seems pretty solid and hasn't played many hands. His range is definitely medium to large pairs and big aces down to maybe AT. A few more folds and then a new player calls on the button, I'm thinking his range is probably most pairs up to TT and maybe big suited cards, say JQ KJ KQ and possibly big aces (I'm unsure if he'd reraise AK). Action comes back to me.
I call for the following reasons - I'm the last to act so by putting in a further 0.70 I'll see a flop. I can make one straight, and if I do flop big I have big implied odds as me and the guy to my left both have approximately $22 and the other guy has $11. Bad thing is I'll be out of position so I'm happy to take a look and drop it if not.
Flop comes: A T 3 two hearts (I have the 5 of hearts not that I'm overly excited about it).
I check, guy to my left c-bets $2.20, third guy folds. This is the decision I want opinions on.
The pot is now $5.35. My thought process was this: He's probably got one pair, either he's c-betting KK QQ JJ, or more likely he's got top pair with a big kicker. He's more likely to have the latter as he's c-bet against 2 other players in a raised pot, the chances are one of his opponents have the ace. The reason I called his bet was because I felt if I hit my miracle 5 I could stack off against AK AQ AJ style hands. I made the call, hit the 5 on the turn, bet my way to an all in after a safe river card and got all of his money (he had AQ)
Thinking about it afterwards though, I've got what? 6% of hitting on the turn. He's got a big ace a big proportion of the time as I'd said so not much chance of betting him off it ever, plus what if he has a set of tens, AT or rivers a better 2 pair than me? Or what if we run into the case ace on the turn?
I don't want to be results orientated, so all in all (and I realise I've gone into a lot of detail but I want my thought process to be as clear as possible) is that always just a terrible call on the flop?
Ta,
Majj
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Comments
I'm sure you'll fold other situations like this one in future as you are well aware that in "The Long Run" your magic card isn't going to arrive and you are going to be callnig a bigger bet on the turn to try and hit on the river.
LMAO Great thread Majj gave me a good laugh lol. I can't quite beleive know one has figured its just a joke and have actually gave proper answers.
To be honest you should have never been in the hand because as u said a tight player did re raise you so give him a little respect and find a better spot later on, this is also why this it is not a +EV situation!!
It is obvious you are too good to make this play just by reading your thought processes and reasoning.
Im with dudeskin on this 1