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Cheltenham Preview - day 3
Cheltenham – Thursday 18th March
Day three sees four handicaps with fields of 20 or more so we will again just be concentrating on our selections for each race.
1.30 - Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase:
Key Stats:
4 of the 5 previous winners of the race were aged 7.
All five previous winners were rated between 123 and 135.
All five previous winners finished in the first two last time out.
All five previous winners finished in the top four in all completed Chases.
All five previous winners had not won more than one previous race over fences.
4 of the five previous winners had won over at least 20 furlongs (hurdles or fences)
China Rock - Novice Chaser who has been seen five times over fences. He's been mixing it with some of Ireland's best including Sizing Europe, Pandarama and Roberta Goldback and hasn't been disgraced. Won a large field Beginner's Chase at Galway in October and, although he has raced mainly on testing ground, he is bred to appreciate quicker conditions. Only his second race outside Ireland but the balance of his form suggests his mark of 141 for this handicap debut is a fair one. Fourth in last season's Ballymore Novices behind Mikhael D'Haguenet, Karabak and Diamond Harry and likely to be involved in this class if his jumping comes up to scratch.
Dave's Dream - Good hurdler, winning last season's Imperial Cup with ease from a mark of 138. Attention switched to fences this season and duly won a Novice race on his seasonal return at Huntingdon on good ground. Failed to match that performance in two Novice races since but heavy ground was against him at Newbury in December and he ran better than his finishing position suggests last time out at Doncaster, where a bad mistake at a crucial stage put paid to his chances. The return to quicker ground will suit and he hasn't had many chances over today's sort of trip. Open to plenty of improvement, represents top connections and is fairly weighted for this handicap debut.
Hey Big Spender - Has his share of weight but has the advantage of running well here on his last two starts, winning his last outing with ease from an eight pound lower mark. Progressed in each of his four starts over fences and represents a yard on a high after taking yesterday's Champion Bumper in emphatic fashion. Sound jumper and looks likely to take another step forward.
Recommended bets:
China Rock - 1 pt win. Available at 10/1. (Blue Square, Ladbrokes, 888Sport)
Dave's Dream - 1 pt win. Available at 11/1 (general).
Hey Big spender - 1 pt win. Available at 10/1 (William Hill, Stan James, Betfred)
2.05 - Pertemps Final:
Alfie Sherrin could be well ahead of the handicapper but his connections have ensured that he represents poor value in a race where favourites haven't a good record.
Key Stats:
All the past 11 winners were between 6 and 9 years old
All the past 11 won from a rating of less than or equal to 150
All the past 11 winners carried 11st 7lb or less
All the past 11 winners had achieved their best RPR rating in the last year in one of their last 3 runs
All the past 11 won from inside the handicap
10 of the past 11 winners had winning form between 2m 4f and 2m 6f
10 of the past 11 winners had won at Class 3 or higher
9 of the past 11 winners had 6 to 15 runs over hurdles
8 of the past 11 winners had been off the track between 26 and 42 days
9 of the past 11 winners had earned a hurdle Topspeed of at least 107
8 of the past 11 winners had won over at least 3 miles
8 of the past 11 winners carried at least 10st 5lb
6 of the past 11 winners won last time out
Only two favourites have won in the past 11 years.
Ainama - Only been seen six times over hurdles but, after winning on his debut in a Novice race 14 months ago, he has often flattered to deceive since. However he was always going to be better suited by this sort of trip and he offered plenty of encouragement on his first excursion beyond 20 furlongs last time out at Newvbury. That also marked his seasonal return and handicap debut. He wasn't given a hard time after losing his place late on but still consented to make late gains,giving the impression the race was needed. The fact he has been rested since November suggests he has been targeted for this. Runs from the same handicap mark, versatile regarding ground conditions and Tony McCoy's choice of three J.P McManus runners.
Cross Kennon - Won five of his last six hurdle races since entering handicap company and in the process improved by a whopping 48 pounds. Up another 12 pounds for this race but he is progressing at a rate of knots and travels very well through his races. He has won on each of the three occasions he has gone three miles plus under rules and all ground seems to come alike to him. This race represents a huge step up in class but, off a light weight, his quiet stalking style could see him surprise a few
Recommended bets:
Ainama - 1 pt win. Available at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Cross Kennon - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 25/1 (General).
2.40 - Ryanair Chase:
This could be fought out by the Paddy Power first and second, Tranquil sea and Poquelin, but with only 14 pound separating the whole field prices of around 7/2 and 9/2 respectively for the pair don't make them as appealing as some.
Key Stats:
All five previous winners achieved a RPR of at least 158.
All five previous winners were Officially Rated at least 152.
All five previous winners were a course winner.
All five previous winners had won or been placed in the Paddy Power or Boylesports Gold Cup.
All five previous winners were from the first three in the betting.
All five previous winners had no more than four runs since the previous October.
Four of the previous five winners had finished in the first three last time out.
Three of the previous five winners had run at least 11 times over fences.
The three beaten favourites had all won a Grade 1 chase last time out.
Schindler's Hunt - The winner of two Grade One Chases, he is often ignored in the market, even though he is quite capable of mixing it with the best. Fourth in the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2008, he ran well in this race last year losing out to Imperial Commander and Voy Por Ustedes. He lost out very narrowly to VPU again in last season's Melling Chase at Aintree and signed off the season with another second to Notre Pere in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. He hasn't quite reached that level of form this season but he returns to arguably his best trip today and he may enjoy this better ground (always seems to run his race when encountering good ground).
Deep Purple - He will be dismissed by many because he was pulled up in the King George at Kempton last time out. However a broken blood vessel was cited as the cause and a return to the progressive form he was showing prior to that disappointment cannot be ruled out. He surprised a few when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby over 25 furlongs because he is a horse with plenty of pace and the drop back to 21 furlongs here certainly won't be a problem. The good ground is very much in his favour and the yard have hit form at the right time. Their only runner so far at this festival ran a blinder at 100/1 in yesterday's Supreme Novices.
Recommended bets:
Schindler's Hunt - 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Ladbrokes)
Deep Purple - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 25/1. (Boylesports)
3.20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1:
This looks at the mercy of Big Bucks but his tendency to hit a flat spot always gives the opposition a chance, although in his last seven completed starts no-one has managed to take advantage.
Key Stats:
10 of the previous 11 winners were aged 6 to 8 years old.
10 of the previous 11 winners had run between 6 and 17 times over hurdles.
10 of the previous 11 winners had never been out of the first four all season.
10 of the previous 11 winners had run no more than four times since August.
10 of the previous 11 winners finished in the top two last time out.
9 of the previous 11 winners had previously run at the Festival.
9 of the previous 11 winners had won a graded hurdle.
9 of the previous 11 winners had an RPR of at least 164.
A five year old has never won this race
Karabak - His profile suggests Karabak is still improving and he got within four lengths of Big Bucks on heavy ground over 25 furlongs at Newbury last time out. That was only his second race beyond three miles and, even though he seems to prefer a bit of cut in the ground, he does handle quicker conditions. He also has room to improve in the jumping department and a slicker round of hurdling could see him close the gap on the favourite. He responds well to pressure and has performed up to his best on both previous visits to this track, including being beaten less than two lengths in last season's Ballymore Novices. It would be classed as a disappointment if Karabak couldn't make the frame at least
Recommended bet:
Karabak - 1 pt e/w. Available at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
4.00 - Byrne Group Plate:
There has been a strong word that Song Of Songs has been primed specifically for this race and he will leave his disappointments this season behind him. If he returns to the kind of form that saw him defeat Deep Purple at Sandown this time last year he would be a danger to all. However he hasn't looked the same horse over his fences since he fell at Aintree last April and he is not guaranteed to see out today's trip.
Key stats:
All of the previous 11 winners had won at Class 3 level or higher
Ten of the previous 11 winners had won between 19 and 21 furlongs.
Ten of the previous 11 winners had run within the previous 40 days.
Ten of the previous 11 winners had finished in the top 5 last time out.
Nine of the previous 11 winners carried no more than 11 stone
Nine of the previous 11 winners had run between 4 and 16 times over fences
Nine of the previous 11 winners were nine or younger.
Nine of the previous 11 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
Eight of the previous 11 winners were Officially rated between 128 and 130
The Irish have not won this race since 1982.
I'm So Lucky - Not very aptly named in light of him being brought down when going well over this C/D last time out. Looked set to take a hand in the finish but at least that signaled a return to form of a horse who was a promising Novice Chaser back in 2008. Hopefully he can build on that recent effort from a mark which is beginning to look attractive. He has plenty of good ground form and it's interesting that connections have made the effort to retain the jockey who rode him for the first time in that last race. That will mean him riding almost at his minimum to ensure I'm So Lucky gets in here off his correct light weight.
Recommended bet:
I'm So Lucky - 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Bet365)
4.40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup:
The easy challenge of solving a 24 runner handicap for Amateur riders to end the day.
Key Stats:
All of the previous 11 winners were rated within 10 pd of the RPR of the top rated
All of the previous 11 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
10 of the previous 11 winners ran over at least three miles last time out.
Nine of the previous 11 winners were Officially Rated no more than 128
Nine of the previous 11 winners had won a handicap chase.
Nine of the previous 11 winners had finished in the first three in either or both of their last two starts
Eight of the previous 11 winners had won over at least three miles.
Seven of the previous 11 winners were set to carry more than 10st 10lb.
The Irish have not won this since 1983
Ballabriggs - Has the burden of top-weight but has the build to carry it. He has taken his Chase form to a new level in his last two outings and fully merits the ten pound rise he has been handed for winning easily at Ayr last time out. That effort came from an eleven pound higher mark for winning, again easily, at Catterick in January. Jumps well, looks to have a serious engine and is versatile regarding ground conditions. Partnered by a jockey who won this race in 2006 and represents an owner/trainer team who won the 2007 renewal with Cloudy Lane.
Boychuk - Bit of an enigmatic character who doesn't hold many secrets from the handicapper but he does have plenty of form on this track and remains very capable on his day. Ran well when last seen in December and has gone well fresh in the past. Likes good ground or faster and if he can be kept interested he can produce a performance better than his market price predicts.
Recommended bets:
Ballabriggs - 1 pt win. Available at 7/1. (Ladbrokes, Blue Square, 888Sport)
Boychuk - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 20/1 (General)
Thought i would post these selections, followed this bloke 1st 2 days, already had winners at 40/1, 40/1, 33/1, 14/1, 10/1, 7/1 & 4/1 + Three 2nds at decent prices!!
Wish i had posted the 1st 2 days so you could see the proof - anyway hopefully all his winners have not come in the 1st 2 days and there will be a few more by the end of the week.
Day three sees four handicaps with fields of 20 or more so we will again just be concentrating on our selections for each race.
1.30 - Jewson Novices´ Handicap Chase:
Key Stats:
4 of the 5 previous winners of the race were aged 7.
All five previous winners were rated between 123 and 135.
All five previous winners finished in the first two last time out.
All five previous winners finished in the top four in all completed Chases.
All five previous winners had not won more than one previous race over fences.
4 of the five previous winners had won over at least 20 furlongs (hurdles or fences)
China Rock - Novice Chaser who has been seen five times over fences. He's been mixing it with some of Ireland's best including Sizing Europe, Pandarama and Roberta Goldback and hasn't been disgraced. Won a large field Beginner's Chase at Galway in October and, although he has raced mainly on testing ground, he is bred to appreciate quicker conditions. Only his second race outside Ireland but the balance of his form suggests his mark of 141 for this handicap debut is a fair one. Fourth in last season's Ballymore Novices behind Mikhael D'Haguenet, Karabak and Diamond Harry and likely to be involved in this class if his jumping comes up to scratch.
Dave's Dream - Good hurdler, winning last season's Imperial Cup with ease from a mark of 138. Attention switched to fences this season and duly won a Novice race on his seasonal return at Huntingdon on good ground. Failed to match that performance in two Novice races since but heavy ground was against him at Newbury in December and he ran better than his finishing position suggests last time out at Doncaster, where a bad mistake at a crucial stage put paid to his chances. The return to quicker ground will suit and he hasn't had many chances over today's sort of trip. Open to plenty of improvement, represents top connections and is fairly weighted for this handicap debut.
Hey Big Spender - Has his share of weight but has the advantage of running well here on his last two starts, winning his last outing with ease from an eight pound lower mark. Progressed in each of his four starts over fences and represents a yard on a high after taking yesterday's Champion Bumper in emphatic fashion. Sound jumper and looks likely to take another step forward.
Recommended bets:
China Rock - 1 pt win. Available at 10/1. (Blue Square, Ladbrokes, 888Sport)
Dave's Dream - 1 pt win. Available at 11/1 (general).
Hey Big spender - 1 pt win. Available at 10/1 (William Hill, Stan James, Betfred)
2.05 - Pertemps Final:
Alfie Sherrin could be well ahead of the handicapper but his connections have ensured that he represents poor value in a race where favourites haven't a good record.
Key Stats:
All the past 11 winners were between 6 and 9 years old
All the past 11 won from a rating of less than or equal to 150
All the past 11 winners carried 11st 7lb or less
All the past 11 winners had achieved their best RPR rating in the last year in one of their last 3 runs
All the past 11 won from inside the handicap
10 of the past 11 winners had winning form between 2m 4f and 2m 6f
10 of the past 11 winners had won at Class 3 or higher
9 of the past 11 winners had 6 to 15 runs over hurdles
8 of the past 11 winners had been off the track between 26 and 42 days
9 of the past 11 winners had earned a hurdle Topspeed of at least 107
8 of the past 11 winners had won over at least 3 miles
8 of the past 11 winners carried at least 10st 5lb
6 of the past 11 winners won last time out
Only two favourites have won in the past 11 years.
Ainama - Only been seen six times over hurdles but, after winning on his debut in a Novice race 14 months ago, he has often flattered to deceive since. However he was always going to be better suited by this sort of trip and he offered plenty of encouragement on his first excursion beyond 20 furlongs last time out at Newvbury. That also marked his seasonal return and handicap debut. He wasn't given a hard time after losing his place late on but still consented to make late gains,giving the impression the race was needed. The fact he has been rested since November suggests he has been targeted for this. Runs from the same handicap mark, versatile regarding ground conditions and Tony McCoy's choice of three J.P McManus runners.
Cross Kennon - Won five of his last six hurdle races since entering handicap company and in the process improved by a whopping 48 pounds. Up another 12 pounds for this race but he is progressing at a rate of knots and travels very well through his races. He has won on each of the three occasions he has gone three miles plus under rules and all ground seems to come alike to him. This race represents a huge step up in class but, off a light weight, his quiet stalking style could see him surprise a few
Recommended bets:
Ainama - 1 pt win. Available at 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Cross Kennon - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 25/1 (General).
2.40 - Ryanair Chase:
This could be fought out by the Paddy Power first and second, Tranquil sea and Poquelin, but with only 14 pound separating the whole field prices of around 7/2 and 9/2 respectively for the pair don't make them as appealing as some.
Key Stats:
All five previous winners achieved a RPR of at least 158.
All five previous winners were Officially Rated at least 152.
All five previous winners were a course winner.
All five previous winners had won or been placed in the Paddy Power or Boylesports Gold Cup.
All five previous winners were from the first three in the betting.
All five previous winners had no more than four runs since the previous October.
Four of the previous five winners had finished in the first three last time out.
Three of the previous five winners had run at least 11 times over fences.
The three beaten favourites had all won a Grade 1 chase last time out.
Schindler's Hunt - The winner of two Grade One Chases, he is often ignored in the market, even though he is quite capable of mixing it with the best. Fourth in the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2008, he ran well in this race last year losing out to Imperial Commander and Voy Por Ustedes. He lost out very narrowly to VPU again in last season's Melling Chase at Aintree and signed off the season with another second to Notre Pere in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. He hasn't quite reached that level of form this season but he returns to arguably his best trip today and he may enjoy this better ground (always seems to run his race when encountering good ground).
Deep Purple - He will be dismissed by many because he was pulled up in the King George at Kempton last time out. However a broken blood vessel was cited as the cause and a return to the progressive form he was showing prior to that disappointment cannot be ruled out. He surprised a few when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby over 25 furlongs because he is a horse with plenty of pace and the drop back to 21 furlongs here certainly won't be a problem. The good ground is very much in his favour and the yard have hit form at the right time. Their only runner so far at this festival ran a blinder at 100/1 in yesterday's Supreme Novices.
Recommended bets:
Schindler's Hunt - 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Ladbrokes)
Deep Purple - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 25/1. (Boylesports)
3.20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1:
This looks at the mercy of Big Bucks but his tendency to hit a flat spot always gives the opposition a chance, although in his last seven completed starts no-one has managed to take advantage.
Key Stats:
10 of the previous 11 winners were aged 6 to 8 years old.
10 of the previous 11 winners had run between 6 and 17 times over hurdles.
10 of the previous 11 winners had never been out of the first four all season.
10 of the previous 11 winners had run no more than four times since August.
10 of the previous 11 winners finished in the top two last time out.
9 of the previous 11 winners had previously run at the Festival.
9 of the previous 11 winners had won a graded hurdle.
9 of the previous 11 winners had an RPR of at least 164.
A five year old has never won this race
Karabak - His profile suggests Karabak is still improving and he got within four lengths of Big Bucks on heavy ground over 25 furlongs at Newbury last time out. That was only his second race beyond three miles and, even though he seems to prefer a bit of cut in the ground, he does handle quicker conditions. He also has room to improve in the jumping department and a slicker round of hurdling could see him close the gap on the favourite. He responds well to pressure and has performed up to his best on both previous visits to this track, including being beaten less than two lengths in last season's Ballymore Novices. It would be classed as a disappointment if Karabak couldn't make the frame at least
Recommended bet:
Karabak - 1 pt e/w. Available at 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
4.00 - Byrne Group Plate:
There has been a strong word that Song Of Songs has been primed specifically for this race and he will leave his disappointments this season behind him. If he returns to the kind of form that saw him defeat Deep Purple at Sandown this time last year he would be a danger to all. However he hasn't looked the same horse over his fences since he fell at Aintree last April and he is not guaranteed to see out today's trip.
Key stats:
All of the previous 11 winners had won at Class 3 level or higher
Ten of the previous 11 winners had won between 19 and 21 furlongs.
Ten of the previous 11 winners had run within the previous 40 days.
Ten of the previous 11 winners had finished in the top 5 last time out.
Nine of the previous 11 winners carried no more than 11 stone
Nine of the previous 11 winners had run between 4 and 16 times over fences
Nine of the previous 11 winners were nine or younger.
Nine of the previous 11 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
Eight of the previous 11 winners were Officially rated between 128 and 130
The Irish have not won this race since 1982.
I'm So Lucky - Not very aptly named in light of him being brought down when going well over this C/D last time out. Looked set to take a hand in the finish but at least that signaled a return to form of a horse who was a promising Novice Chaser back in 2008. Hopefully he can build on that recent effort from a mark which is beginning to look attractive. He has plenty of good ground form and it's interesting that connections have made the effort to retain the jockey who rode him for the first time in that last race. That will mean him riding almost at his minimum to ensure I'm So Lucky gets in here off his correct light weight.
Recommended bet:
I'm So Lucky - 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Bet365)
4.40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup:
The easy challenge of solving a 24 runner handicap for Amateur riders to end the day.
Key Stats:
All of the previous 11 winners were rated within 10 pd of the RPR of the top rated
All of the previous 11 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
10 of the previous 11 winners ran over at least three miles last time out.
Nine of the previous 11 winners were Officially Rated no more than 128
Nine of the previous 11 winners had won a handicap chase.
Nine of the previous 11 winners had finished in the first three in either or both of their last two starts
Eight of the previous 11 winners had won over at least three miles.
Seven of the previous 11 winners were set to carry more than 10st 10lb.
The Irish have not won this since 1983
Ballabriggs - Has the burden of top-weight but has the build to carry it. He has taken his Chase form to a new level in his last two outings and fully merits the ten pound rise he has been handed for winning easily at Ayr last time out. That effort came from an eleven pound higher mark for winning, again easily, at Catterick in January. Jumps well, looks to have a serious engine and is versatile regarding ground conditions. Partnered by a jockey who won this race in 2006 and represents an owner/trainer team who won the 2007 renewal with Cloudy Lane.
Boychuk - Bit of an enigmatic character who doesn't hold many secrets from the handicapper but he does have plenty of form on this track and remains very capable on his day. Ran well when last seen in December and has gone well fresh in the past. Likes good ground or faster and if he can be kept interested he can produce a performance better than his market price predicts.
Recommended bets:
Ballabriggs - 1 pt win. Available at 7/1. (Ladbrokes, Blue Square, 888Sport)
Boychuk - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 20/1 (General)
Thought i would post these selections, followed this bloke 1st 2 days, already had winners at 40/1, 40/1, 33/1, 14/1, 10/1, 7/1 & 4/1 + Three 2nds at decent prices!!
Wish i had posted the 1st 2 days so you could see the proof - anyway hopefully all his winners have not come in the 1st 2 days and there will be a few more by the end of the week.
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