Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on

Tripticon3

to be clear to start with, this is not a bad beat story.

I am having a horrible time here on sky over the past month or two when trying to complete my flush draws when im 4 to the flush on a flop. Mathematically speaking, you are supposed to complete a flush around 34% of the time in this situation, if im correct?

However, I am constantly finding it difficult to make better than say.. 1 in 12, anywhere up to 1 in 16. for the life of me I cannot understand this, and it is getting incredibly frustrating as it is throwing all my math out the window, as im not getting the correct odds.

Believe me, I would not be posting this if it was a case of this happening from 50 or 100 draws, this is happening over hundreds of draws now, and i'm really struggling to see how this can be variance.

Does anybody have an explanation for this? Or experienced similar?

Thanks

loonytoons

In Response to Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible.:

to be clear to start with, this is not a bad beat story. I am having a horrible time here on sky over the past month or two when trying to complete my flush draws when im 4 to the flush on a flop. Mathematically speaking, you are supposed to complete a flush around 34% of the time in this situation, if im correct? However, I am constantly finding it difficult to make better than say.. 1 in 12, anywhere up to 1 in 16. for the life of me I cannot understand this, and it is getting incredibly frustrating as it is throwing all my math out the window, as im not getting the correct odds. Believe me, I would not be posting this if it was a case of this happening from 50 or 100 draws, this is happening over hundreds of draws now, and i'm really struggling to see how this can be variance. Does anybody have an explanation for this? Or experienced similar? Thanks
Posted by Tripticon3

You say your hitting one in 12 or 16, but believe me, all this means is some player somewhere else is winning 2 or 3 in 5,which is less than 3/1, its called variance, and if you go fishing for flushes after the flop, and your behind, your gonna lose more in the longrun anyway.

silentbob

I'm guessing it all comes down to one of those statistical things really, a bit like if you flip a coin. If you flip a coin you've got a 50/50 chance of head or tails so in theory every 2nd flip should produce heads. In reality this generally doesn't happen as you could end up flipping tails 100 times in a row but over the course of thousands of flips it should (statistically at least) be 50/50. 

I could be completely wrong but that would be my understanding.

Tikay10

Hi Trip,

It's just variance, & it affect us all. But therre are two sides to variance, & at some stage in the past, or future, you will be the other side of variance - the + side.

What else could it be?

GREGHOGG

An explanation is as follows

If you toss a coin over a long period of time, say 100,000 times, it will be roughly 50/50 over time. (maybe 49700 vs 50300 for example)

However, if you toss a coin 20 times, there is a reasonable chance that you could get 90% heads and 10% tails. (18 heads and 2 tails)

So the second example, like your odds of hitting a flush, is not based on a correct sample size to demonstrate the overall longterm odds. (50/50 for heads or tails)

It may seem like a flush never hits at the moment, but in a few weeks time it may seem like you are hitting your flush nearly every time, or at least much more often. It IS varience.

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible.:

I'm guessing it all comes down to one of those statistical things really, a bit like if you flip a coin. If you flip a coin you've got a 50/50 chance of head or tails so in theory every 2nd flip should produce heads. In reality this generally doesn't happen as you could end up flipping tails 100 times in a row but over the course of thousands of flips it should (statistically at least) be 50/50.  I could be completely wrong but that would be my understanding.
Posted by silentbob

my thoughts exactly, you just beat me to it while i was writing my waffle

NoseyBonk

On the flop you're about 40% (about 1 in 2 and a bit ish) if you shove it ALL-IN but if you play it street-by-street then only about 20% (1 in 5)

loonytoons

In Response to Re: Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible.:

On the flop you're about 40% (about 1 in 2 and a bit ish) if you shove it ALL-IN but if you play it street-by-street then only about 20% (1 in 5)
Posted by NoseyBonk

No its not nosey, dont you ever use your hot - o - meter lool, its more like 34%.

Tripticon3

Hi everybody,

Thanks for all the responses. I understand what you're all saying and it must be what's causing it, it's just very weird that it seems to be SO bad! I guess it's more frustration at the day than anything else, but... hopefully i'll make 16, 20, 100 flushes in a row some day soon!! (and they'll be the nuts :-D ).

And Tikay, I got knocked out of the Roulette early tonight, (pocket 6s v A4, A came on the flop - go figure!!), so you might just be in with a chance of winning this one!

NoseyBonk

In Response to Re: Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible.:

In Response to Re: Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible. : No its not nosey, dont you ever use your hot - o - meter lool, its more like 34%.
Posted by loonytoons

Nah I call Mystic Meg's premium-rate poker helpline for instant odds help during a game 

bryan1960

In Response to Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible.:

to be clear to start with, this is not a bad beat story. I am having a horrible time here on sky over the past month or two when trying to complete my flush draws when im 4 to the flush on a flop. Mathematically speaking, you are supposed to complete a flush around 34% of the time in this situation, if im correct? However, I am constantly finding it difficult to make better than say.. 1 in 12, anywhere up to 1 in 16. for the life of me I cannot understand this, and it is getting incredibly frustrating as it is throwing all my math out the window, as im not getting the correct odds. Believe me, I would not be posting this if it was a case of this happening from 50 or 100 draws, this is happening over hundreds of draws now, and i'm really struggling to see how this can be variance. Does anybody have an explanation for this? Or experienced similar? Thanks
Posted by Tripticon3

change to the 4 colour deck,bryan and i always find this helps at such times

Machka

In Response to Re: Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible.:

In Response to Supposed to complete flush 1 in 3/ 1 in 4 times when you're 4 to the flush on flop? What is going on?? if its variance seems almost mathematically impossible. : change to the 4 colour deck,bryan and i always find this helps at such times
Posted by bryan1960

I can see how that would help enormously.