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Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10

edited April 2010 in The Poker Clinic
hmmm i put it into poker stove and i think you have about 40% equity here ish... so mathematically is that a call or fold someone who can be bothered to work it out :)

pot is about 140 when facing the decision, 75 to call... in terms of working out % odds here is the total pot just the 140... so 75/140 or is it 140 + the 75 to call making it 75/215?

tbh it looks very marginal so i guess either option isn't too bad. Surely if you check raise there you check raise looking to get it all in though?

I see no problem with calling with the JTs there, would prefer position over the 3 better though or could consider 4 betting?

Comments

  • edited April 2010
    Good morning Sky Poker players!

    OK, following on from another couple of posts, I am going to put together a series of questions with what I believe to be an interesting hand.

    The idea of the exercise is to get us thinking about the ways we play certain hands, whether we agree or disagree with some of the other views shown and ultimately just to add a bit of variety to the way we play the game. Taking on new ideas and adding them to your arsenal makes you a more versatile player, so hopefully you'll see an improvement in your game by contributing to the debate.

    If you're new to the forum, don't be afraid to join in too! We're going to have players of all levels commenting on the play and in a lot of ways this hand might play differently on the microstakes cash games compared to a high stakes ones. The more views and opinions the better in my opinion!

    OK, so to today's hand. Aggressive actions are in red, our actions have been bolded.

    The background.


    We've been playing this session for around an hour now and have been playing reasonably tight. The real pattern that has emerged is - helpfully - based on the Villain in this hand. He's been re-raising a lot of our opening bets and so far we've remained patient and folded alot. Our hand is Js-Ts, and when he raises us once again we decide it's time for us to make a stand...

    Blinds and Stack sizes.

    £0.25/£0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

    UTG - £39.50
    MP - £49.70
    Hero (CO) - £117.70
    Villain (BTN) - £103.35
    SB - £52.85
    BB- £69.25

    Pre Flop: (Pot = £0.75) Hero is in the cut-off with Js-Ts

    2 folds, Hero raises to £1.50, BTN raises to £5, 2 folds, Hero calls £3.50

    Flop: (Pot = £10.75) Qs-8c-5s (2 players)

    Hero checks, BTN bets £8, Hero raises to £26.50, BTN raises to £98.35 all in.

    Question:
    What would you do? We're playing for our whole stack with a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. Do you call or fold?

    Also:

    What do you think of the pre-flop defend with Js-Ts? Should we be doing this with stronger hands or smaller, more deceptive ones?

    How about the play on the flop? Is check-raising here the best play or should we just call and try to make our hand before bloating the pot?
  • edited April 2010
    Stop the hollywood and call!
  • edited April 2010
    i like to dance, call ;) haha naaa id base my move on a well informed decision :)
  • edited April 2010

    If hes abit of a nutter he could easily have the nut draw, and the best hand here. 

    I don't like calling off with draws, maybe lead the flop, he raises, and I can get my money in first and give him the decision.

    I just wanna fold here - Got myself in a horrid position :(
  • edited April 2010
    With 18(?) outs (9x spades, 3x9, 3xJ, 3xT) and 2 streets to play I call.

    If the villian had a tight table image my decision would be more difficult, but with a clear pattern of re-raising, that's paid-off nicely so far, he's quite likely to be on a bluff, if he's on a draw it's not as good as ours. Folding would give the villian a big chip lead, he's got to be taken on sooner or later, I go for it now. (Knowing my luck he turns over something like As 9s and takes me out, but that's another matter!)

    BTW This decision should be made without the assistance of pokerstove, in a tournament situation you won't be able to make use of mathmatical software aids!
  • edited April 2010
    I think check raising the flop was always going to lead to a re-raise... most of the time here I would have played the same and check-raised but with such an aggressive opponent, I think I would have just flat called or re raised all in following the raise.
    Following the pattern in the post, I would have put the Villain on maybe a weak Ace so I would have folded to the all in as I would have presumed I was behind.
  • edited April 2010

    What hand do ou think he has Gary where the 3xT AND 3xJ are gonna be valid outs?

    If you believe he has less than a queen, it can only be a flush draw, in which case the 9 outs to the flush disappear.

  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    ) BTW This decision should be made without the assistance of pokerstove, in a tournament situation you won't be able to make use of mathmatical software aids!
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    this isnt a tournament and pokerstove isnt used during a hand but after it so when youre faced with similar decisions you know roughly wwhether its mathematically correct to call or not.

    Sky Dave - Preflop is fine, i think folding would be worse considering how deep we are and the strength of our hand against a frequent 3bettor.

    FlopYou have 40% equity against his range most likely. Why raise flop if you are gonna raise/fold? Seems like youre just deciding to give up 40% in that spot. If youre not comfortable getting it in dont raise. You should already know in your mind what youre gonna do if he shoves when you raise here. If you dont have a plan then dont raise.
  • edited April 2010
    easy fold if i do not have much but wood need a big had to make the call and how did the hand pan odd i wood put my money on the river bard help the drew hand out 99% of the time best hand gets beat on the river ! lol
  • edited April 2010

    Need around 35% equity to call- against aq you have about 48% equity, against qq you have about 34% and even against As 2s we have 30% equity so its a call.
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    easy fold if i do not have much but wood need a big had to make the call and how did the hand pan odd i wood put my money on the river bard help the drew hand out 99% of the time best hand gets beat on the river ! lol
    Posted by staford03
    theres probably some genius advice hidden in this post somewhere if i could decipher it.
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10 : theres probably some genius advice hidden in this post somewhere if i could decipher it.
    Posted by offshoot
    LMAO
  • edited April 2010
    Hi Dave,

    From your description, it sounds like your a bit tiltty, and given that your more likely to shove and hope.

    BUT, in my opinion, the correct play against an aggro play with position on you, is to call the flop bet of £8 and then re- evaluate on the turn. If you do this and the aggro player bets out, YOU can take control by shoving first, rather than calling off your stack with a draw.

    discuss?
    col
  • edited April 2010
    well me personally - I would have folded Js10s at the first opportunity. Hate 'em ! Most overrated hands in poker !!!
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    Hi Dave, From your description, it sounds like your a bit tiltty,
    Heh, cheers Col! Just a disclaimer for me: these aren't always my own hands but situations I have come across in the past or had people ask me about - I'm simply posting them up for the benefit of good banter and a bit of poker debate :)

    Oh, and I never ever tilt unless I am playing squash.
  • edited April 2010
    I will have to fold here, deciding to make a stand against a very aggro opponent is fine but to make a stand you have to raise it up above him, or if you call lead out let him make the decision not check down cause then you left yourself with the difficult decision of whether or not he has any of this flop and even if he don't whether or not either a J high flush draw or J high is good enough to call to a re-raise you have to suggest either he has you for a super nit who will fold down anything pre-flop or even for a maniac your looking at A high, K high, pair of Queens is well in possible range once he shoves.

    To me pre-flop you have him on anything by the time he has gone back over the top of you re-raised you all in you have to narrow his range down to any Q, AK, at least a flush draw which for the size of the shove could quite possibly be beating yours. There is also the possibility of 8's if he feels you would not just check with top pair, but to me there are way too many hands that either have you beat already or if you hit will still have you beat afterwards, if they were short stacked and was not making me call for my entire stack I would possibly call but I would not call off my entire stack with a flush draw, even if I could bring more chips to the table afterwards.

    Back to previous plays the defend with Js-Ts is fine as long as against a maniac player, if you have any draw any hand at all you have to lead out, your tight image shows that your not going in with rubbish so bet out and show strength, admittedly the check-raise was a massive show of strength but cause you let him have the betting lead he will use it and always give you the toughest decisions.
  • edited April 2010

    Quote: Our hand is Js-Ts, and when he raises us once again we decide it's time for us to make a stand...

    IMO calling with jts in this spot 200bb deep is not making a stand..its pretty standard, if we were 100bb deep then a 4bet shove all-in is what i call making a stand ;-)
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10 : Heh, cheers Col! Just a disclaimer for me: these aren't always my own hands but situations I have come across in the past or had people ask me about - I'm simply posting them up for the benefit of good banter and a bit of poker debate :) Oh, and I never ever tilt unless I am playing squash.
    Posted by Sky_Dave
    Hi Dave,

    Its a pity i'm not 10 years younger, as i was a county standard squash player then and would have challenged you to a game( i might be able to teach you a few things as im a have done some coaching as well lol).
    That does depend on how good you are though lol

    When are you going to give us your wisdom on the two hands you've posted and comment on our replies.

    col
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    Quote: Our hand is Js-Ts, and when he raises us once again we decide it's time for us to make a stand... IMO calling with jts in this spot 200bb deep is not making a stand..its pretty standard, if we were 100bb deep then a 4bet shove all-in is what i call making a stand ;-)
    Posted by DeuceAK-47
    I agree with you Deuce - it's relatively speaking though, considering we'd been folding a number of hands to his 3bets before..
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10 : Hi Dave, Its a pity i'm not 10 years younger, as i was a county standard squash player then and would have challenged you to a game( i might be able to teach you a few things as im a have done some coaching as well lol). That does depend on how good you are though lol When are you going to give us your wisdom on the two hands you've posted and comment on our replies. col
    Posted by mr_mbro
    Soon Col, soon.... it's more about the discussion than the end result though, don't you think? :)
  • edited April 2010
    We've folded to his 3 bets a lot, now we've shown resistance pre flop and again post flop and he still shoves.  Sometimes we need to take in this information and realise that even villains can get decent hands.  He could well be drawing as well but if that's the case then he could well have the higher flush draw and still have us crushed. I fold and wait again. 

    I agree with Offshoot that we need a plan if we're gonna just raise and then fold on the flop. Therefore, I mix up more pre flop vs villain and change his comfort zone as he's controlling me too much at the moment.
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    We've folded to his 3 bets a lot, now we've shown resistance pre flop and again post flop and he still shoves.  Sometimes we need to take in this information and realise that even villains can get decent hands.  He could well be drawing as well but if that's the case then he could well have the higher flush draw and still have us crushed. I fold and wait again.  I agree with Offshoot that we need a plan if we're gonna just raise and then fold on the flop. Therefore, I mix up more pre flop vs villain and change his comfort zone as he's controlling me too much at the moment.
    Posted by phil12uk
    IMO i dont think we can fold in this spot as we only need 34.63% equity to call,even against a very strong range such as QQ,88,55,AsKs and AQ we still have 40.45% equity...what range do you put him on that you think it is a fold?
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10 : IMO i dont think we can fold in this spot as we only need 34.63% equity to call,even against a very strong range such as QQ,88,55,AsKs and AQ we still have 40.45% equity...what range do you put him on that you think it is a fold?
    Posted by DeuceAK-47
    Fold here, we still have £86 in front of us.  Why gamble?
  • edited April 2010
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10:
    In Response to Re: Sky Dave asks "What Would You Do?" - 15/04/10 : Fold here, we still have £86 in front of us.  Why gamble?
    Posted by phil12uk
    If this was a tourny then you probably could fold as you could find a better spot...but as this is a cash game i never fold if i think its +ev to call, alot of people think if they fold small +ev edges then their variance wont be that high but if you fold +ev edges then your winrate will suffer meaning you get more variance in the long run. 
  • edited April 2010
    dont understand why you would ever fold if you have a +EV edge, no matter how small... although rake should be considered. Why gamble? poker is gambling... AA v KK preflop... gambling with your 80% chance of winning, can't always have ya opponent drawing dead!
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