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playing big combo draw

edited April 2010 in The Poker Clinic
Was playin a bit big for my boots again last night as usual when the ale kicks in.

Just going through hh and this appears to be my biggest pot lost.  Am I always getting it in with just 1 card to come with this draw.  With 2 cards I dont mind, is this a cooler or could/should I have saved some money here?
scotty77 Small blind  £0.25 £0.25 £111.05
OMahonyO Big blind  £0.50 £0.75 £71.81
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • J
     
IMAROCK Fold     
ChirpyChip Fold     
coe Call  £0.50 £1.25 £113.88
MARK123 Fold     
scotty77 Fold     
OMahonyO Check     
Flop
   
  • 5
  • 10
  • 4
     
OMahonyO Check     
coe Check     
Turn
   
  • 9
     
OMahonyO Bet  £1.25 £2.50 £70.56
coe Raise  £4.06 £6.56 £109.82
OMahonyO Raise  £12.18 £18.74 £58.38
coe All-in  £109.82 £128.56 £0.00
OMahonyO All-in  £58.38 £186.94 £0.00
coe Unmatched bet  £42.07 £144.87 £42.07
OMahonyO Show
  • Q
  • J
   
coe Show
  • 10
  • 10
   
River
   
  • 6
     
coe Win Three 10s £143.07  £185.14

Comments

  • edited April 2010

    I think its a fold by maths (probably wrong lol)

    Its £46.20 to call for a £134.44 pot which means you need 35.15% equity.

    Using the 2x rule you have 9 flush outs + 6 straight outs (i dont think you can consider the q+j as an out.), so 15*2 = 30% equity.

    By the way i probably would advise to reraise pre to isolate the limper, the most important thing you should be doing is taking notes ie. they limped with 10's pre and he check back with a set so you know they slow play their massive hands for next time
  • edited April 2010

    Why would you three bet the turn??  hes likely not bluffin the turn there with a small pot to win................................... also being a limped pot with no aggression until the turn, call his re raise and see the river laaa 

  • edited April 2010
    don't know why you 3bet the turn. flat his raise and bet out or c/r river depending on villain tendencies to bluff or pot control if you hit. c/f if you miss.

    you are WAY overplaying your hand.

    you just put in 150bb with half decent draws which some aren't even drawing to the nuts and turned your hand into a bluff when you have nice implied odds when you hit a lot of the time.

    this is pretty insanely bad to be fair. do you see why?

    edit: i've played with you and you play straight forward so this looks like the common "i'm playing higher limits so try some fancy plays that i wouldn't do if i were playing normally" 

    i wouldn't take shots at 25/50 again if this is the usual outcome until you sort it this out personally. 
  • edited April 2010
    Yea, looking at it I'm not liking the reraise on turn, and here's why-

    If he's got a hand, he's not going away. The fact you've bet and he's raised means chances are he has a strong hand- we're looking at AA/KK, 2 pair or trips. Possibility of a draw which he's trying to push you away. In all the first instances, you're behind. In the last one, any draws he has- you have too, and 9/10 they're better.

    By flatting the raise (you have MASSIVE amounts back, so you could afford to- I would) you can then see what happens on the river. If he has AA/KK/2 pair, if a heart or obvious straightening card comes off (8), he's calling a small raise but probably folding. If a K comes off, you're probably getting paid. A heart will see him slow up. If he has trips, strong possibility by the reraise, you're probably getting paid whatever happens. Any hand that sees you hit your draw will probably see him hit his too, and unless you're unlucky enough to run into an A or K high flush, you're getting paid.

    By waiting to the river, you'll know where you're at, and if you miss- you get away without losing anything. The reraise in a cash game tells you he's got something strong, so the reraise is asking for trouble and you're tossing £60 on a dice roll loaded against you. If you had top pair too, then I wouldn't mind so much- but it's a flat draw.
  • edited April 2010
    its a not a cooler as its a coin flip from the outset, the bet out on the turn is fine, the 3 bet with the draw hmm a little iffy, the all in call with the double draw well frankly I am rarely making that call, its a dodgey hand played extremely weird from your opponent but he has got the maximum out of you he checked the flop to let you catch up and then let you trap yourself. I feel this is get offable but not in every circumstance image of the player would he shove with a pair of tens if so you have 21 outs to hit if not thats crying a set as the board is so dry its unreal, but if you suspect the set you only have 13 outs as the 5h or 10h are not favourable to you cause either would pair board and then your against a house. Its a tough spot cause you have so much potential but then again its only potential where he has the made hand.
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