WHATS THE ODDS?

BADBOY985

ME AGAIN JUST BEEN PLAYING DEEPSTACK MTT. 2.5HRS IN I GET THIS HAND JH 9H.
FLOP 9C 6D 9D TURN 8D RIVER JS. AFTER RAISES AND RERAISES AFTER RIVER I GET ALL MY CHIPS IN AGAINST CHIP LEADER DECIDE WHICH OF MY VICTORY DANCES TO DO!!
WHEN MY OPPONENT TURNS OVER 7D 10D.
I KNOW I POSSIBLY SHOULD MAYBE HAVE PUSHED EARLIER BUT THE GUY HAS 4 TIMES MY STACK AND WOULD PROBABLY CALLED AS IM 4 OF 4 AND GETTING ME OUT GUARNTEES HIM A MONEY FINISH.
SO BACK TO MY ORRIGINAL QUESTIONS CAN ANY OF YOU CLEVER PEOPLE TELL ME THE ODDS TO 1 OF HIM HITTING THE ONLY2 CARDS IN THE PACK TO BEAT ME?

STEPHEN66

Only read your post once but I think you`re saying after the flop he had to hit to specific cards to beat you?

If so he needs one of 2 out of 47 cards on the turn. Roughly 24/1

Then 1 out of 46 cards on the river. 45/1.

24 x 45 = 1080/1.

Bad beat.

Tikay10

Hi BADBOY,

If I understand you properly, your Opponent never needed to hit two Cards - he only needed 1 card, (the 8d) with 2 Cards to come. In fact, he Turned it with a Card to spare, but that's irrelevant. 

At that stage, you were well behind (drawing dead, in fact) & it was a little unlucky that you Rivered your House, which led you to think your hand was good. It was a "cooler".

He had a LOT of Outs on that Flop - he had all the Flush Outs, Straight Outs, & Straight Flush Out, too.

Still, you were a little unlucky, but that's the sheer beauty of the game, as it works equally both for & against us.

Tikay10

PS - Badboy, I just checked - you were "only" a 2/1 favourite on that Flop. (65.86% v 34.14%). 2/1 is big, but not huge, by any means.

STEPHEN66

Apologies, if I didn`t bother reading your post properly. Thought you were saying he needed runner,runner not 1 out on the turn OR river.

Stick with listening to Tony, he`s been playing a lot longer than me.

I only started in the late 50`s.

Tikay10

In Response to Re: WHATS THE ODDS?:

Only read your post once but I think you`re saying after the flop he had to hit to specific cards to beat you? If so he needs one of 2 out of 47 cards on the turn. Roughly 24/1 Then 1 out of 46 cards on the river. 45/1. 24 x 45 = 1080/1. Bad beat.
Posted by STEPHEN66

Yes, he said that, but it's incorrect - he said "after the Flop", when in fact, he never hit his House until the River, by which time he was already drawing dead.

To beat the (yet-to-be Rivered) House, he had 1 Out, with 2 Cards to come, = 4%, or 25/1. BUT, at that stage, Post-Flop, Pre-Turn, ANY Flushing or straighting (Minus the Boat Outs) out would be good. That's a wholly different thing!

Tikay10

In Response to Re: WHATS THE ODDS?:

Apologies, if I didn`t bother reading your post properly. Thought you were saying he needed runner,runner not 1 out on the turn OR river. Stick with listening to Tony, he`s been playing a lot longer than me. I only started in the late 50`s.
Posted by STEPHEN66

Sigh, behave you.....

BADBOY985

SORRY SHOULD HAVE SAID HOLDING NOT HITTING THE 2 CARDS.
MANY THANKS TO ALL WHO HAVE REPLIED TO BOTH MY POSTS TODAY.
IVE ONLY BEEN PLAYING 3 YEARS AND IVE LEARNED MORE I COUPLE OF WEEKS IN THIS COMUNITY THAN IN PREVIOUS 3 YEARS.
IM NOT A GREAT LOVER OF READING BOOKS, THE LAST ON I READ WAS NO HELP AT ALL, THAT JANET AND JOHN KNOW CHUFF ALL ABOUT POKER!!