You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
help and advice needed!
yes its me one of the forum wingers LOL, i would be very grateful for advice from all players on the following mater.
i have been with sky for 1 year and i am having a great time, on the tables and on the forum. The past month i have hit a bad run on the cash tables, i only finished 2 buyins up (playing 6-8 tables 30 hours per week) in April where i normally average near 30 buyins pcm and this month i am -10 buyins already.
I am the biggest critic of my own game, spending time looking at hand history, reading books and the forum always wanting to improve my game. i have been looking closely at hand history over the past few weeks but the only thing i can see wrong is i am unlucky well most of the time sometimes i say WT F did i do that for.
my question is this what do i do now?
stay at my normal stakes and tell myself it will pass soon?
move down in stakes till the bad run passes?
move up in stakes and hope for the best?
try playing mtt or D.Y.M?
start all over again, withdraw my roll leaving a roll for 40/50nl and rebuild from their?
any advice will be great, many thanks jimmy. BE LUCKY.
Comments
i say do dym !
and slowly edge your back to your cash games !
If i was you i would play less tables and try to improve my winrate so i was crushing 100nl and then move up...rinse and repeat.
But then again you earn more than the national average wage from poker and its not your only income, so if its not broke..why fix it.
i did find it a little boring but the main thing i would strugle with would be multitabling with the blinds all differant on each table.
Its tough enough already.
it hasnt hurt my roll, the 3k i won i took it off as no need to have a large ammount on a poker account.
im still very unsure what to do.
i will mess about tonight and play a few mtt and a few cash tables so i might see you l8r on, LOL.
but onto the question...are you noticing anything different about how the regs are playing versus you? is it possible that regs have adjusted/noticed a read on you?
is your recent form due to coolers/being rivered by lucky randoms?
i would imagine that you are just going thru some good old variance tho....if you feel the need to drop down then do so. also taking a few days break doesn't hurt either.
I think its just normal variance for you. If you are still enjoying playing your normal cash level carry on and it will turn. Personally it would bore me grinding away against the same players night after night.
It is tough making a profit consistently from MTT.. two years ago I could play 4 or 5 a day and cash in most of them, but the standard of play has gone up so much. It took me a while to adjust and I had a big downswing last year. I think I am now playing as well as ever, but my ROI has halved.
A big difference for me between MTT and cash is that I can comfortably play 4 or 5 cash tables at the same time, but to play good tourny poker I need to play a maximum of 2 at once. More than that and I lose focus on the strategy and chip dynamics.
Cash seems to be your strongest / most profitable game if im not mistaken, so for me I can't particually see the point in moving over to stts. I think it depends on your mindset from here: if your still playing your A game, and the loss hasn't affected you emotionally, I would prob just stay where you are. As you have described, your just waiting for the varience to turn, and it prob isn't too serious yet considering you havn't lost too many BI's.
However, if you get to the point where the losses are really getting to you I would advise moving down for a while. Ive noticed some of the realy good players often do it, so theres certainly no shame in moving down, just means that more of your bankroll will still be intact when you get back to making profit.
I know you already know all this, just try ti ride it out.
most of my hands have not been major beats when sat deep had loads of coolers but one of the things thats getting me down is i cant win a race or a 60/40 norm vs a shortstack pushing with mid pairs vs my AK/AQ or other way around.
Maybe you could try c betting flop and check raising turn oop when you keep getting floated?
you say my sample size is small. i, and im sure many others would say that playing 6-8 tables 30 hours a week for near 6 months is surely enough time for variance to take effect (thats only at 100nl).
as always i have respect for you and your game and will take on board any advice.
Leave well alone if you want my advice.
Seems like the variance monster has you at the moment. My March was beyond horrific and April faired only slighy better,,,,,,,i have played through it though and things are now much better altho that's probably just put the mockers on things lol.
It seems yr analyzing yr game for leaks which is pretty much all you can do. Just make sure you're not playing too cautiously as it's easy to do that when you start expecting yr AA to be cracked every time or your overpair to meet sets etc etc.
If the money you are currently losing is significant then drop down a level and play through it. If your still amply rolled then i'd just say stick at it and things will turn.
Don't drop down too low though as playing micro stakes will probably negatively affect yr game nearly as much as playing dym's
im very confused. i have no idea what all this is. ok lets say im +7k this year thats not including any
cash 4 points so thats 17 is wks so its 510 hours of 6-8 tables, who will it work?
When I first started a few years ago, and people were first getting together and trying to work out what a big enough sample was, 50k hands was like more than any one had ever played so that was huge. Now there are lots of people playing 1mill+ hands a year. The variance in a sample that size is ridonkulous. Imagine how variance can affect you, not only in coolers, losing to suck outs etc, but also how you run when you move up and take shots compared to when you move down etc etc.
this has put me on a bit of a downer, i now need to think was i just runnig good over the past few months and i am not that good or am i any good at this game.
i played a few hours last night and the river killed me time and time again, after looking through the hands i keep asking myself the same question, how did villan call my rr on the flop or call my raise on turn (when i was ahead).
this is giving me a bit a confidence knowing i am getting money in good.
if variance can last as long as you say, i need to think about what to do now, i dont wanna hang around at 100nl and wait till i go bust just hoping things will change.
i am seriously considering starting all over again.
i do feel at the moment that i cant win, i had another mess about with that variance thing befor and seen one winning player was out of profit over 250000 hands on a 1mil hands, i dont think i could take that it would drive me mad.
one thing that gets me is other regs, you, offshoot, ajs and lolufold ok your all good players and have a edge over me but i never see any consitantly losing like i am at the moment or do all these boys run like god all the time.
when running bad should you play 6+ tables or should you cut down and play 2-3 to limit the damage?