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Final Table heads up - What would you do next?

edited May 2010 in The Poker Clinic
All,

This hand is from the £3k Double Stack....

Managed to final table and eventually got heads up. 1st paid £920 and 2nd paid £550.

Stacks are deep and the blinds are huge now just wondering what most players next step would be here? Both of our ranges had been tight nd at some point throughout the FT we had outdrawn each other when the other was ahead.
Bradnock Small blind  20000.00 20000.00 602655.11
vegasman Big blind  40000.00 60000.00 813344.89
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • J
     
Bradnock Call  20000.00 80000.00 582655.11
vegasman Raise  80000.00 160000.00 733344.89
Bradnock Call  80000.00 240000.00 502655.11
Flop
   
  • 4
  • 5
  • Q
     
vegasman Bet  40000.00 280000.00 693344.89
Bradnock Call  40000.00 320000.00 462655.11
Turn
   
  • 9
     
vegasman Bet  160000.00 480000.00 533344.89

What hands should i feasibly be thinking about here with the turn bet? Or should we be fist pumping at this stage and think we are ahead?

Would you be raising, shipping, calling or considering you are beat and folding?

Or do you need more information here?

Cheers

Kieran

Comments

  • edited May 2010
    I would be Jamming it all in and hoping he was on the draw and not got Q9 as is betting suggests! But then again that's probably why I don't win to often! :)
  • edited May 2010
    I'll answer your question in the end but I feel this decision might not exist if you had been more aggressive either pre or post flop. You have a reasonably strong HU hand, in position, which is a good opportunity to raise and apply pressure to the villain. Unless your open-limping with your entire range, I see no reason why you shouldn't be raising. Not raising pre-flop means you're short of vital information about villains hand, making your decisions on later streets much tougher, as is evident by the spot you're put in on the turn, but i'll get to that in a minute.
     
    Again, you call a min-bet in position on the flop. At this point, you have next to no idea what villain has on a draw-heavy board. What was the purpose for the call? Was it to get a bet out of him on the turn? Or (more likely) was it because you had no idea where you were? If it was the latter, you needed to make an information raise, 100k would have sufficed. You can fold if he shoves on you (if you feel you're behind), if he calls he's probably checking every turn card to you so you can shove any non-dangerous card (which IMO an offsuit 9 is) and if he folds, hurray, we've won a decent pot and we're in the chip lead. The momentum is with us, and crucially we've prevented getting into a tricky situation on the turn.

    It's highly likely IMO that, with more aggression, this hand would have been over pre or post flop (at least in terms of betting, you might have got it all-in on the flop if you felt your QJ was good, which I probably would FWIW).

    In direct answer to your question, as played, I'm still going to ship it on him. Our hand is under-repped here, there's almost no chance he's putting us on QJ, so I think he's probably protecting his A5/A9 from one of the many draws that are out there, which, from villains point of view, makes up a large part of your range IMO. A9/K9 makes sense to me, since he's gone from a min-bet to pot-bet after the 9 has fallen. I don't think he has Q9 because it doesn't make sense that he'd min bet top pair HU on that draw-heavy a board, only to then pot-bet when he makes top two, and that's a pretty weird betting pattern for AQ/KQ too.

    I know your question is about your turn play, and forgive me if I sound overly-critical, but you shouldn't be in this position come the turn. Look at your actions this hand, in position, with a strong HU hand:
    Bradnock Call  20000.00 80000.00 582655.11
    Bradnock Call  80000.00 240000.00 502655.11
    Bradnock Call  40000.00 320000.00 462655.11
    Again, without wishing to sound too critical, that is far too weak IMO for QJ on the button HU. If you make standard raises either pre or post flop, the hand is over before the turn.
  • edited May 2010
    Dont limp in HU when every chip counts you always want fold equity and a chance to win every chip out there. 

    30 big blinds isn't really deep you still have barely any room for maneuver or for any mistakes.

    Also you haz top pair in a HU game, googogogogooggogoogo arrrrrrrrrr eeeeeeeeeeeeeen
  • edited May 2010
    I wouldn't have been calling anything here. I would have been the one raising it pre-flop, but also prepared to lay them down to a significant re-raise bearing in mind my opponents tight range. If I'd played it the same way as you pre-flop I would have re-raised (probably to all-in) Vegasman's small bet post flop, so the turn card is irrelevant.

    But what do I know? I'm strictly a low stakes MTT player.
  • edited May 2010

    Cheers for the feedback all.

    There was a reason behind my flat call pre, he had twice made the 80k raise and i had shipped twice bringing the stacks back to level-ish.(I was shipping quite light) - should of probably revealed that information in my OP.

    YoungUn - I am open to criticism, and yours is constructive. My usual game would be raising pre for info on opppos hand, i chose to take a different route as i wanted to shove but thought he wont call as he has not previously called so wanted to see if the flop bought him any reason to get it in, as it was that was a interesting flop. Trying to change styles at that stage of tournament is not wise.

    My main mistake is calling, calling, calling with a fairly weak holding, even the 9 had me confuzzled.

    Will reveal soon. Cheers all.

    Beaneh - I think i wrote 'deep stacks', should of thought it through as your right at 30BB its pretty much short stack v short stack.

  • edited May 2010
    Odds of missing the flop are massive HU, and you can be reasonably sure he hasn't got aces or kings, unless you're unbelievably unlucky. I think HU if you hit any part of the flop, or even have A high, you're going to bet. If he has 2 pair, a set or AK/KQ, then you have to shrug and live with it but I think way, way more than 50% of the time here he'll have A9/K9, maybe even 89 or 910. Entirely possible he has a 4 or 5, though that is less likely. Personally, I'd be raising on the flop, and absolutely be shoving on the turn. That's a massive HU hand.
  • edited May 2010
    pretty sure its 15bbs not 30?  600k/40k = 60/4 so 15.

    TPGK HU 15bb deep is hudge and as everyone else has said

    he minbets flop which does look super weak and the thought of slowplaying does come across my mind but the board is so wet and lots of nasty turn cards either give you the 2nd best hand or kill your action (3,6,A,K, flush)
    that id prob make it 160k on  flop

    YoungUn suggests making an 'information' raise then folding? if you get shoved on, i dont agree as we can be ahead of lots of his shoving range  Axdd Kxdd Qxdd & other flush draws, he can have weaker made hands or shove putting you on a flush draw with anything from A5-JJ that you have crushed
  • edited May 2010

    Thanks for all the feedback, LOL_RAISE was close to my thought pattern through the hand i thought he was slowplaying but i was not good enough to believe it....

    Bradnock Small blind  20000.00 20000.00 602655.11
    vegasman Big blind  40000.00 60000.00 813344.89
      Your hole cards
    • Q
    • J
         
    Bradnock Call  20000.00 80000.00 582655.11
    vegasman Raise  80000.00 160000.00 733344.89
    Bradnock Call  80000.00 240000.00 502655.11
    Flop
       
    • 4
    • 5
    • Q
         
    vegasman Bet  40000.00 280000.00 693344.89
    Bradnock Call  40000.00 320000.00 462655.11
    Turn
       
    • 9
         
    vegasman Bet  160000.00 480000.00 533344.89
    Bradnock Raise  320000.00 800000.00 142655.11
    vegasman Raise  320000.00 1120000.00 213344.89
    Bradnock All-in  142655.11 1262655.11 0.00
    vegasman Unmatched bet  17344.89 1245310.22 230689.78
    Bradnock Show
    • Q
    • J
       
    vegasman Show
    • A
    • A
       
    River
       
    • 3
         
    vegasman Win Pair of Aces 1245310.22  1476000.00
    Congratulations Vegasman.

    A lesson in why you should raise in position with a decent holding, i think i would of folded to a shove pre though.

    As i RR on the turn i thought i either have him beat or he has KK/AA i was ahead a high % of the time then i was committed.

    Definitely a shrug from me DeucesLive, as i say i am ahead in this situation 70% or so of the time.

    Kieran
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