Reducing Variance

rancid

This may be a futile effort in getting a response on a subject we all know will always be a part of a draw game. I am currently looking at ways of reducing variance with certain situational plays and in essence getting the money in good is fine. But are there certain strats you employ to avoid coin flips and especially concentrating on pre flop aggression to force your opponent off and therefore avoid these out draw situations as much as possible.

Any feedback is welcome however negative or postive

BlackFish3

IMO the key to the whole coin flip thing is to get your money in first, shove for a coin flip, dont call for a coin flip. It gives you 2 ways to win the pot, 1 is by making your opponent fold, the other is by having the best hand at the end.

JONONZIE

I n Response to Re: Reducing Variance:

IMO the key to the whole coin flip thing is to get your money in first, shove for a coin flip, dont call for a coin flip. It gives you 2 ways to win the pot, 1 is by making your opponent fold, the other is by having the best hand at the end.
Posted by BlackFish3

Getting your chips in first has nothing to do with variance that's just good solid play variance is when you are all in or have the best hand but you keep getting outdrawn for example last 4 games I have been ahead and got outdrawn each time yesterday KK and AA both cracked by lower pair today 10 10 in with Ak I lost and tonight in the open  me KK v QQ and 55,  the QQ hit a straight!,but It does works the other way round and your way behind and hit the mirrical river card but that is rare for me as i am usually in with the best hand  I'm sure it will turn around for you (and me) but it is very annoying,I dont think you can avoid it as if you do you will miss out on winning hands and will tend to play tighter and tighter but having read books and listened to other good players like Andy variance should work itself out and you should come out ahead  just keep playing solidly   

beaneh

In Response to Re: Reducing Variance:

IMO the key to the whole coin flip thing is to get your money in first, shove for a coin flip, dont call for a coin flip. It gives you 2 ways to win the pot, 1 is by making your opponent fold, the other is by having the best hand at the end.
Posted by BlackFish3

What does coin flips have to do with variance?!

What do people actually think variance is and how much does it affect?!

DeucesLive

To me, variance is something you get with any probability- I find it's best explained by actual coinflips. If you toss a coin 100 times, you would expect roughly 50 of each, but it could swing a lot either way. If you tossed it 100'000 times, you would expect it to be extremely close to 50'000 of each, with little swing. However, what you would NOT expect would be a spread of HTHTHTHTHTHT- that is extremely unlikely. You're going to get long stretches of say 8/9/10 of one in a row, possibly then followed by alternating. The logic that because you've had heads 15 times in a row the next one is likely to be tails is bull- there's still a 50% chance of getting heads.

In poker this translates to races mostly- if you keep getting your money in on 50/50's, you'd expect to come out even over time. But the problem with gambling is although a good win streak will net you a lot, a bad losing streak can destroy your entire bankroll and leave you with nothing, thus giving you no chance to pull back up. It's a part of gambling, even if you do use skill in poker to give yourself the best odds. All you can do, in my view, is ensure you never gamble beyond your means (i.e your bankroll dictates how much you put in at one time) and work hard on your game to make sure there's no holes in it, and it purely is variance that's giving you a bad run at the time.

As far as avoiding coinflips, obviously there's no way to avoid them entirely- but what you can do is think carefully about how flips affect you. If you're a good player, chances are you won't take a coinflip early stages ever, whereas if you're a bad player, or not confident on your game that night, you'd be happier to- since it sets you up if you win. Later on, if you're mid or shortstacked, you'll again be happy to take coinflips- if you've got a big stack, you won't want to take on another big stack on a flip. Basic logic, but can easily go out of the window- it's a hole I think I have in my game personally which I need to plug.

Ultimately, there is no cure for variance. If the cards are currently going against you, and you know beyond all doubt your game is still good, you just carry on. As long as you don't go bust, it'll turn eventually- but don't think because you've had aces cracked 5 times in a row they're more likely to hold next time, the odds never change.

DeuceAK_47

Explain variance please Beaneh as i dont really get what variance is, these are things the pros suggest to give you less variance.


Play cash (less variance in cash than mtt's)

Play lower levels (the higher you play the less skill advantage you have which gives you more variance)

Take every +ev opportunity possible (including when you think your behind but have the right price to call correctly)

Learn how to crush the games (the higher your winrate the less variance you have)

The more you tilt, the more variance you will get

To me these things dont really help you have less variance but they do help you handle variance better as if your crushing the game you can have winning days even when your running bad.

DOHHHHHHH

Ill do it in 1 word for ya AK - It's Luck

DeuceAK_47

In Response to Re: Reducing Variance:

Ill do it in 1 word for ya AK - It's Luck
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Lol thanks mate, thats what i thought it was :-)

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: Reducing Variance:

In Response to Re: Reducing Variance : What does coin flips have to do with variance?! What do people actually think variance is and how much does it affect?!
Posted by beaneh

nowt but the OP asked if there strategies to avoid coin flips, so i suggested shoving for a flip rather than calling for a flip to make it a flip only if ya get called.

variance is to do with EV etc aint it? And that thing you posted about how disgusting variance can be.

beaneh

In Response to Re: Reducing Variance:

In Response to Re: Reducing Variance : nowt but the OP asked if there strategies to avoid coin flips, so i suggested shoving for a flip rather than calling for a flip to make it a flip only if ya get called. variance is to do with EV etc aint it? And that thing you posted about how disgusting variance can be.
Posted by BlackFish3

Variance is essentially everything you cant control in poker. Which obviously isn't a definition.

The idea is to always try to make +ev decisions when playing, whenever you get to a very close decision where you are completely 50/50 in your mind then you can just fold and try and look for a better edge and essentially remove 'some variance', as everytime you put money in the pot before the river without the nuts there is always a chance you could lose it. 

Similarly multi table tournaments are so 'high variance' because all the money is top heavy in the pay structure. If 50 people all play 'as close to perfect as they can' and always get their money in good, the one that in this short term scenario have encountered good situations more often and bad situations less often are the ones that will come out on top. Someone still has to be lucky enough to win the required 10 coinflips or whatever  you need to win a donkament.

Another way to reduce variance other than through your own play style is to play against less aggressive players.

Another way is to go to showdown less etc etc
Do you see what i'm getting at?