50nl, rivered set but always a fold right?

OMahonyO

OMahonyO	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£47.75
gansham	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£52.47
	Your hole cards	K K
Ozzie08	Fold
hbo3009530	Fold
Dale09	Fold
ST220	Call		£0.50	£1.25	£47.62
OMahonyO	Raise		£1.75	£3.00	£46.00
gansham	Fold
ST220	Call		£1.50	£4.50	£46.12
Flop
		J 10 A
OMahonyO	Bet		£3.00	£7.50	£43.00
ST220	Call		£3.00	£10.50	£43.12
Turn
		7
OMahonyO	Bet		£6.00	£16.50	£37.00
ST220	Call		£6.00	£22.50	£37.12
River
		K
OMahonyO	Check
ST220	All-in		£37.12	£59.62	£0.00

No info on villain, these waters are still quite new.

Dudeskin8

I would probably fold on river. Preflop in sb I'd raise 5x, c-bet flop and check fold turn.

LOL_RAISE

i had exactly the same hand earlier today board was AQJxK, id cbet flop check/fold turn and bet/fold river

Eagle26

right mahony first of all, you know everything i say in the clinic gets slaughtered right? so basically dont listen to a word i say lol. but i make this call. your losing to a queen obviously but as he limped pre and only called your raise, i cant put him on aq here. qk? possible (although u are holding 2 kings yourself) but again if he flopped the nuts would he really flat call the flop & turn? surely he would want to get some money in? plus the board has the flush draw on it. could be QJ/Q10, i discount any other Q because I cant see them calling your flop/turn bets with a gutshot. but if it is a Q - the shove on the river? if he hit the nuts would he shove? i dont think he does personally! he knows you have something so surely a little value bet is in order? the shove could be a busted flush (which i believe it is), any ace, 2 pair. you have checked the river so basically given up, so he has spotted the weakness and shoved on ya reppin the Q imo. I know once again everyone else will tell ya to fold, but i cant fold this, I 100% make this call and expect to see the money coming over to me :-)  

beaneh

In Response to Re: 50nl, rivered set but always a fold right?:

right mahony first of all, you know everything i say in the clinic gets slaughtered right? so basically dont listen to a word i say lol. but i make this call. your losing to a queen obviously but as he limped pre and only called your raise, i cant put him on aq here. qk? possible (although u are holding 2 kings yourself) but again if he flopped the nuts would he really flat call the flop & turn? surely he would want to get some money in? plus the board has the flush draw on it. could be QJ/Q10, i discount any other Q because I cant see them calling your flop/turn bets with a gutshot. but if it is a Q - the shove on the river? if he hit the nuts would he shove? i dont think he does personally! he knows you have something so surely a little value bet is in order? the shove could be a busted flush (which i believe it is), any ace, 2 pair. you have checked the river so basically given up, so he has spotted the weakness and shoved on ya reppin the Q imo. I know once again everyone else will tell ya to fold, but i cant fold this, I 100% make this call and expect to see the money coming over to me :-)  
Posted by Eagle26

Getting slaughtered is a good way to learn, as long as you except that the slaughtering may be meant in a constructive way. Remember that anytime someone tells you anything about how to improve their game they are costing themselves money if they play in the same games as you.

The thought of 'how can he combination wise have the hand that beats us' is good and the right way to think. However just because you realise it is a good/correct play to raise the turn not everyone thinks like you do or plays like you do hence why there is money to be made at this game.

I think that him hitting the straight and just shoving in is quite likely, in general i find that randoms are alot less willing to shove their stack in on a bluff than they are when they finally make a hand.I doubt he is shoving on a 4 straight board with 2 pair even when checked to and so I believe his range is either a Qx hand or a busted flush draw. Remember that some of his busted flush draws include the Qh.

As is you say you always make this call and expect to win however there should be some allowed for proportion of the time that you do lose as it is always possible to run into a better hand. By analysing our pot odds on the river decision we can see how often he has to be bluffing compared to how often he has us beat for us to call here.

Comprende?

Eagle26

when i say i always make this call and expect to win was a bit tongue in cheek. however if its correct or not im always 100% making the call here. the fact the villian is a 'unknown' makes me think completly different to you because you believe  a unknown is less likely to put all his money in the middle on a bluff than a made hand where as i think the total opposite! why wouldnt he shove with a weak ace here? lets say it is a weak ace and he has called flop/turn, and has now seen mahony check the river--what does that tell the villian? mahony doesnt hold a Q right? if its a weak ace he may still think he is losing to mahony who may be holding 2 pair (Ak, AJ, A10) so he has no showdown value, so to win the hand he has to bet the river and what better card to rep here than a Q on this board? its an extremly difficult call for mahony, he is struggling to make the call here with trips! the point you bring up abut the villian having a Qx flushdraw is a valid point but again what hand does he call pre-flop with? there are only 2 hands im worried about here and that is QJ or Q10  but if it 1 of those 2 hands or infact Qx hearts i still dont believe for 1 minute the villian shoves the river with the nuts after seein mahony check the river! i think you gotta call this, if your wrong reload and get him later!

scotty77

I prefer a bet/fold rather than a check/fold here FWIW.

I think if you bet 10-12ish it can act as a blocker if he has some random FD and also you can still get value from a load of worse hands.

N1CK

this is a very interesting hand, do you con bet here 100% of the time with a gutshot and backdoor fd? i think if you c bet this board you have to follow it with a  bet on turn if a brick hits as there are loads of hands hes calling flop bet with, the 7 aint great as 8 9 gets there, i think im check folding turn now as it gets to river bet folding is good. this is a tough hand