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CAN CANDIO CALL? (KEY WSOP HAND)
Here's an actual hand from the penultimate day of the World Series of Poker Main Event.
The players involved are Italy's Filippo Candio and America's Joseph Cheong. I appreciate many of you have already read the hand history on PokerNews.com, but I'm going to pose it as a question (without spoilers).
We're playing the hand from Candio's perspective. At this point, 20 players remain. The blinds are 80,000/160,000/20,000.
Candio raises with 7s5s. Cheong three-bets - making it 1.125 million. Candio makes the call in position. Thoughts?
Flop = 6c-6h-5c
Cheong bets 1.5 million. Candio dwells and then raises to 4.425 million (leaving himself 12.1 million behind). Thoughts?
Cheong tanks. And then moves all-in. He has Candio covered. The Italian will be at risk if he makes the call. So...
SHOULD HE CALL?
Comments
id call, but if i was playing i would of folded pre, because I know i could bust most of the table later on
I think it's time for the guy to swallow his pride here, just fold the hand without even thinking, snap muck his cards, then try to forget the hand ever took place.
Walk away from the table for ten minutes and think about what a great/once in a lifetime position he is in.
I wonder how lolufold feels reading this, having played a shortish stack brilliantly for so long, without getting the break to build a stack this big, and he sees a guy spewing this spectacuarly. Even to an extent Tony and Sue (relative stack sizes), who went on a 2 day grind where 1 mistake wud be the end....and they showed the resilliance to come through.
It's like winning a million quid on the lottery 1 week, then deciding the next week is the time to re-invest 500k, on 500 thousand more tickets.
Krazy.
Fold, it's only a 5.6 million hit, with 12m behind.....
Personally would have not got involved which such a hand, am i right in saying this is 10 handed??
even though hero has clearly got alot of chips here dont think 75 suited is a good hand to call with even with position. dont blame the re-raise from the flop and would have to fold/muck in this spot as only hand your beating is a bluff and its for your tournament life
Firstly, let's clarify that this is horrendously bad play to call post flop for his WSOP tournament life.
If we take a look at the maths of the situation, we are calling off our tournament life with a very strong chance that we're drawing to two outs (or some sick runner-runner). Let's say Cheong's 3betting Candio with 10% of his starting hands. That makes his range:
88+,
A9s+
KTs+,
QTs+
AJo+
KQo
Personally, I think that range is kind of nasty - I'd be far more likely 3 betting with hands such as 98s and 22 than A9, but that's an aside. Even if we remove some of the less likely 3betting hands such as A9s and QTs and chuck in some suited connectors and smaller pairs to make it a 12.5% range he is doing this with, we still don't compare at all well. Here's what a 12.5% range looks like:
44+
AJs+
KTs+
QJs
JTs
T8s+
97s+
87s
AJo+
KQo
Let's settle on them being our preflop ranges. Which hands drop out of the mix given the action on the flop? We'd expect that Cheong's range narrows down to the following:
12.5% preflop 3betting range now look like this post-flop (remember all the suited hands mentioned above now become club flush draws):
44+
AKcc/AQcc/AJcc/KQcc/KJcc/KTcc/QJcc/QTcc/JTcc/J9cc/T9cc/T8cc/98cc/97cc/87cc.
The 10% preflop range now gets whittled down to:
88+
AKcc/AQcc/AJcc/ATcc/A9cc/KQcc/KJcc/KTcc/QJcc/QTcc
How does Candio's hand look vs. these two ranges?
vs 12.5% PFR
Board: 6c 6h 5c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.497% 73.19% 00.30% 49998 207.50 { 44+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Th8h, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c }
Hand 1: 26.503% 26.20% 00.30% 17897 207.50 { 7s5s }
That's 73.5% vs 26.5%, near as damnit.
vs 10% PFR
Board: 6c 6h 5c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.981% 80.94% 00.04% 41669 20.00 { 88+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc }
Hand 1: 19.019% 18.98% 00.04% 9771 20.00 { 7s5s }
Let's call that one 81% v 19%.
Cliffnotes of that lot: vs a wide three-betting range from Cheong, we need the pot to offer 3-1 to make a call correct. If Cheong is considered tighter, we need 4-1. That's without weighting the ranges more to overpairs than to bluffs/draws.
The pot size is at 3.01m preflop, then the postflop action sees 4.5m of Candio's stack in the middle raised over the top of, so 9m (4.5m from both players) plus preflop 3.01m makes it 12m in there PLUS the 12.1 Candio will win if he puts his remaining chips over the line. 24.11m vs 12.1m is a touch worse than 2-1, so this is a pretty clear fold.
That's the maths done. As for the tournament situation, I nearly fell out of my seat when I saw he'd put his stack in with bottom pair. Even if Cheong is bluffing with utter tosh here, (let's make up any old hand, such as Q9, giving him just two overs), we've still got to fade six outs twice, plus some of the villains own sick runner runner combinations. It would be a great call in that instance, but he's going to about 70% favourite. I reckon that with 75BBs I could fold and find a better spot to play.
The more I think about the hand, the more it makes me feel queasy. But, as I said at the very top, there is normally an explanation for these kinds of calls, and we only have to look to the hand before to find out what happened. This from a reputable poker news website:
"There was an issue that came up on the main feature table where Joseph Cheong bet the board of As-9s-5h-8c into Filippo Candio. Candio went forward with chips, released them and then pulled them back before releasing his cards according to the tournament staff. The cards didn't touch the muck and it was ruled that Candio called the bet and would get his cards back.
The river was the 4h and Cheong fired another bet. Candio called again. Cheong showed a set of nines and Candio mucked.
Candio was upset he lost the hand and his rail section began commenting and complaining before the announcer warned them to be quiet."
So, our story has some background and that may well have played into Candio's thinking when making this seemingly horrendous call. Maybe he felt Cheong was taking advantage of his obvious tilt, or perhaps he just wanted to get rid of the tilt by making some amazing hero call. Either way, he would have been a lot happier after he hit his crushing runner-runner straight.
The hand in isolation is horrific. The hand in context is so much more interesting...
what do you do for sky???
To be honest, I actually wrote some thoughts on this hand this morning but then noticed Mr Hartigan had brought it up on the forums, so simply waited for the spoiler before venting my strategy spleen
good stuff sir.
oh and if you get a minute can you have a look at my hand in this section where im faced with a tricky spot on the river!!! cheers! (thread title call or fold)
unless Cheong would 3 bet with any 2 i think this is poor, you going to either have to outplay your opponent post flop or represent a much better hand but again that depends on their history. Or the alternative you have to get very lucky on the flop, which he did not and still chose to carry on. deserved to lose the hand but that beauty of poker
Well summed up Sky Dave i defo want to watch a show when your the analyst you know your shizzle
Raising the flop is a mistake. Why compound it with a second one though?