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WWYD
im 1.2 omaha i have 500 stack.. then this hand happens. i have AcKcKdQd... under the gun makes it 7, 2 people flat, i make it 30. and get 3 callers on flop of 2h8c7c... under the gun pots it for 120 and next player then shoves for 425.... other player folds... now up to me..... i have overpair which is no good but i have the killer nut flush club draw but surely im behind to a set..... its 420 t0 call and i win a 1200 pot if i bink the club... would it be gambling to make the call here... what are the odds of me winning if someone has set and someone else has a wrap draw...
whats the correct play and your reasoning for the decision??
Comments
As to the action on that board with the varying inabilities that i have seen on the tables shoving ranges include 9T, 6c2c , overpair and even top pair top kicker. So because of this you really could be up against anything if they are inexperienced players with a NLHE mentality.
The difficult decision you are facing is totally self induced by your preflop action.As soon as there was a raise and 2 callers then there is no way anyone was folding to your 3-bet because it was to weak to make anyone fold.(pot standing at 54 with 23 to call).Even the best possible holding is not much better than 65% favourite against any 1 player and you gave the odds to call preflop to all players with chips invested in the pot.This means that the pot was out of control before the flop had come down and there was a high likelyhood of being asked for your entire stack no matter what the flop came down. The main purposes of preflop action is to build up the pot and remove weaker holdings and your bet only did 1 of the 2.The simple fact is if you can not get people to fold with preflop aggression then there is no point in doing so. Multiway pots can get out of control very quickly from the flop without the added impetus of preflop aggro .
So my advice to you would be in future if you can not make the oppponents fold then take the cheap flop and play the hand from where you know where you stand. In this hand you could have chased your nut flush draw for a much smaller percentage of your stack or even had the stack available to reraise with your big draw. This way you are the one asking the questions and not having to answer them for your stack.
Your point about the comparison to calling a raise and shove in nlhe is flawed due to the fact that you are calling with 1 2-card hand , in nlhe this will be against either a draw or a made hand, whereas in omaha you could be up against a draw and a made hand by each player which gives you much less pot equity.
As to the hand itself. I dont mind making the call but knowing it would just be gambling. Against 1 player and not multiple it would be an easier call to make but still knowing you are behind and drawing.
The point about variance being higher in PLO. This is on the whole true but it is made so much more so by people approaching the hands in the same way as they do NLHE. The variance becomes massive when you see people 3 and 4-betting preflop just because they have a big pocket pair, and also putting in big preflop raises and c-betting. These things make the variance a lot higher than it should be. Good solid play will reduce the variance but it will always be higher than NLHE.
Pot control early on in the streets is the key to controlling variance.There was nothing fundamentally wrong with how you played the hand but you turned it into high risk and high reward play. The option i am talking about reduces the risk and also reduces the rewards but will be safer and more profitable in the long run.