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Working out pot odds etc? N1CK?

edited August 2010 in The Poker Clinic
gers8816 Small blind  £0.02 £0.02 £3.71
3 Big blind  £0.04 £0.06 £1.41
  Your hole cards
  • 8
  • 8
     
7 Call  £0.04 £0.10 £6.99
Seaspirit Fold     
Patching99 Raise  £0.20 £0.30 £3.80
JULIO1966 Call  £0.20 £0.50 £7.71
gers8816 Call  £0.18 £0.68 £3.53
3 Call  £0.16 £0.84 £1.25
7 Call  £0.16 £1.00 £6.83
Flop
   
  • 8
  • 9
  • 7
     
gers8816 Check     
3 All-in  £1.25 £2.25 £0.00
7 Call  £1.25 £3.50 £5.58
Patching99 All-in  £3.80 £7.30 £0.00
JULIO1966 Fold     
gers8816 Fold     
7 Call  £2.55 £9.85 £3.03
3 Show
  • K
  • 6
   
7 Show
  • J
  • 10
   
Patching99 Show
  • 8
  • 8
   
Turn
   
  • 4
     
River
   
  • 5
     
3 Win Flush to the King £4.40  £4.40
7 Win Straight to the Jack £4.72  £7.75
Right, not a question about the hand itself as I know I played this one right. 

However could someone show me how to work out whether this is a profitable call even if I knew someone had J10, impossible I know, but I think this hand would be a good example to learn the maths.   

Comments

  • edited August 2010
    I just done a check for you mate on a site i use for mine.

    On this flop. in order.

    88 - 38.4%

    J10 - 57.1%

    K6 - 4.5%
  • edited August 2010
    Calling £1.25 to win £3.50 you need about 26%

    (1.25 / (1.25 + 3.50)) * 100
  • edited August 2010
    the best way to work these out is the rule of 4. That is 4% for every out you have after the turn dropping to 2% after the turn. So if you put him on JT then after the flop you have 7 outs 3x 7 1 x 8 and 3 x9.So you are roughly 28% or looking at getting 3 to 1 for your money at this stage.
       If you miss the turn you will drop to 20% having now got 10 outs adding 3 x what ever turn card comes in.

      So the basic fact of it is if you put him on JT then you were not getting the required odds to call but you were close. The factoring in of another player in the pot alters these odds as well and the presence of a flush draw is irrelevant if you think you are behind and looking to house up.
  • edited August 2010
    ok firstly its hard to put an opponent on just one hand so you have to look at ranges, (ranges are all the likley hands that he could hold)

    if you had a crystal ball and knew what hands they had you would know you had about 35% chance of winning this hand so you would need to get 1.9/1 on your money to make this a break even call over time

    we aint got a crystal ball so we put our opponents on a range and see how we do against that, now against thier ranges we will probably be around 50% of winning this hand so over time we will need over even money to show a profit.

    the best thing to do is to get pokerstove (ITS FREE) and just play about with it using your old hand historys and see if your making profitable call or bad folds,

    its hard to work out what percentages you need when you are in the middle of a hand and playing other tables but if you have been experimenting with pokerstove alot of these situations come up frequently so you will have  a very good idea if not exact what you will need

    as for the pot odds in this hand your sticking in 3.80 to win 6.05 (implied) as i cant see the flat caller folding getting 3/1

    you could of picked a less complicated hand to do this lol (as i just woke up)
  • edited August 2010
    in this hand its complicated because its 3way & there's a sidepot.

    you will boat up 1/3 times so aslong as you get 2:1 or better dont fold
    ( he obv shows up with worse hands so even if he overbet jams its still a call)
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