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Should I fold KK?

andwhyandwhy
edited August 2010 in The Poker Clinic

This is not really a bad beat story I promise. 

In the first level of a primo semi final £7 buy in.  I have KK in late position.  Player under the gun raises to 80 I re - raise to 240 he pushes.  I snap call, cards turn over he has QQ but I then lose to a Q on the flop.  OK  I'm 80/20 favourite when cards are flipped it's just variance. 

Then I start to think a bit deeper.  This is the first level of a tournament with a reasonable buy in he is unlikely to push any two so what's his range - probably only AA KK QQ

If I put him on one of those ignoring variance I lose to AA split with KK and win against QQ so on that basis I only win 33% of the time so I should fold KK. 

Even if I include JJ in his range I still only win 50% of the time and I wouldn't normally risk my whole stack on a 50/50 in first level.

WDYT?

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Comments

  • KaidusKaidus
    edited August 2010
    Snap call.

    His range is not just limited to AA/KK/QQ/JJ, he can have AK/AQs there as well. You're a massive dog to one, tying the second and massively ahead of the rest.
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  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE
    edited August 2010
    KK vs QQ+ is 50%, not sure where you got 33% from?
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  • waynecwaynec
    edited August 2010
    I dont understand your thinking about folding KK HU preflop as only AA to worry about, maybe if there was a couple of 3 & 4 bets by other players your logic may be correct. IMO with this logic you may as well fold AA as there is a 30% chance of them losing, have I missed the point of your post here? 
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  • waynecwaynec
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK?:
    KK vs QQ+ is 50%, not sure where you got 33% from?
    Posted by LOL_RAISE
    How do you get 50% m8? Win equity is 81% you should win with hand 80% of the time (KK v QQ)
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  • harvey23harvey23
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK?:
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK? : How do you get 50% m8? Win equity is 81% you should win with hand 80% of the time (KK v QQ)
    Posted by waynecure
    he said qq+ not QQ
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  • ybyb
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK?:
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK? : How do you get 50% m8? Win equity is 81% you should win with hand 80% of the time (KK v QQ)
    Posted by waynecure
    Its 50% against QQ+ (ie AA/KK/QQ) as when we make our decisions we don't know the exact hand we're up against so have to put him on a range of hands he would make the same play with.
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  • waynecwaynec
    edited August 2010
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK?:
    In Response to Re: Should I fold KK? : Its 50% against QQ+ (ie AA/KK/QQ) as when we make our decisions we don't know the exact hand we're up against so have to put him on a range of hands he would make the same play with.
    Posted by yb
    I stand corrected or sit in this case
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  • TopTopGunTopTopGun
    edited August 2010
    If you put him on Sklanskys UTG range of JJ-AA, AKs you are still 60% to win hand. You cant be folding KK to one opponent.
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  • bandinibandini
    edited August 2010
    Hmm.

    No-one seems to have picked on the fact it was a satellite, and 1st level at that.

    Against any A you're not even that big a favourite. I tend to play only the nuts in sats until it comes to the point a shove is the only decision. I've seen starting stacks getting through too often.

    In saying that I'm not folding kk pre. Ever.

    Just very unlucky I think mate.
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