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Help with odds
Hi,
I've recently got quite into poker and I was wondering if anyone can explain a bit more about odds. A couple of questions:
1. I understand that each card is worth 4% on the turn and 2% on the river. Should you alter this % depending on the numbers of cards that have been burned?
2. Pot Odds - I'm not sure if I understand it. If I need a flush so therefore max 8 cards to get it - on turn equals approx 32%, on river 16%?? If im asked to put 500 into a 1500 pot this is 3/1. So does that mean that I have pot odds on the turn as 32% approx equals 3/1???
Appreciate any help
Comments
1, No. You don't include burn cards because you don't know what they are, they are blanks - they could be one of your outs or they may not be, you will never know, you only alter the %'s when you know what a card is.
2, Yes you would have odds in this situation. There is also all different types of factors that may influence your play,
stack sizes - if you are getting short and it is near the bubble hand, you may fold, even though it is the correct odds, it is hard to play draws at this stage of the tournaments - do you go for it and risk not cashing or wait until you're guarenteed the money and then play for the win?,
or, you feel your opponent is bluffing or weak, you can also push all in which means you have 2 chances to win the hand, him folding or you hitting your hand.
Now to get complicated, Implied odds;
If the pot is only 250 and he bets 500, you are being asked to call 500 into 750 = 6/4 odds (1.5/1), not the correct odds to hit a 3/1 shot BUT, if you ask yourself if you call, will this pot reach 2000 chips? (this is the return on a 500 on a 3/1 bet) - which means you'll need to get another 750 chips in the pot in the next 2 streets, the turn and river, considering he has bet 500 on the flop, this is highly likely so it is not a bad call, not a bad fold either. Obviously you should still consider the points above about stack sizes, bubbling and raising.
Hope this helps and good luck!
If you have have 4 to a flush then you have 9 flush cards to hit rather than the 8 you suggested.
There again, he may have already put about 40% of his stack in and be pot-committed!
You have NINE outs if you flop 4 to the Flush, not 8. (someone already said that, I think).
And if your odds are, say, 32%, or 36% (it makes little difference in reality), that is 2/1, NOT 3/1.
25% is 3/1, 50% is Evens.
Also, remember we are talking about Odds to HIT.
The real neat trick is, given your example of, say, 32%, & therefore 2/1 to hit, (& ignoring implied odds, which is a whole extra dimension), do you Call, or Bet?
By Calling on the Flop, it's you that faces a tricky decision on the Turn, because the odds will have reduced by then of course.
But if you Bet, or even Jam, guess who has a headache, & a tricky Call now? Correct, your Opponent. We don't like tricky decisions, so avoid them, & give the other player the headache!
That was Joe Hachem's mantra. By Jamming a lot, he transferred the decision to the opponent. So it was the oppo who had to make the mistake, not Joe. That is, on the whole, a good thing......
The dream scenario when on a Flush Draw is to Flop Top Pair, & 4 to the Flush. Now, in probability, your outs increase from the standard 9 out Flush Draw, to 14 outs, or 56%.
Hope that helps.
So if you have put 500 into a total pot of 1000 and face another bet of 500, don't consider the amount already invested. To call you would be investing 500 to win 1500, not 1000 to win 2000 even though you have actually put 1000 into the 2000 pot.
I'm not sure I've put this very clearly, but I hope you get my drift.