Unreal whats the odds anyone?

ginge999

hi guys this is one of my first posts on here, i actually cant believe whats happend. i was cruising in the open managed to get a good stack together, as the tournys moving im finding myself losing chips from blinds as im playing good solid poker. 69 players left, i have around 24 BB's blinds are at 200/400. i pick up QQ in early position i raise to 1600 the chip leader at the table has around 6k more than me he calls from the BB, flop comes down 458 he bets 2,500 at me i shove for my remaining 9k of chips he snap calls me with 87 the turn comes down an 8 then the river comes down another 8 lol i cant believe it such a sick beat and he hits the 2 remaining 8's what are the actual odd's of him doing this hitting running 8's and the remaining case 8?

Draig

Welcome to poker....and the forums....

MereNovice

In Response to Unreal whats the odds anyone?:

hi guys this is one of my first posts on here, i actually cant believe whats happend. i was cruising in the open managed to get a good stack together, as the tournys moving im finding myself losing chips from blinds as im playing good solid poker. 69 players left, i have around 24 BB's blinds are at 200/400. i pick up QQ in early position i raise to 1600 the chip leader at the table has around 6k more than me he calls from the BB, flop comes down 458 he bets 2,500 at me i shove for my remaining 9k of chips he snap calls me with 87 the turn comes down an 8 then the river comes down another 8 lol i cant believe it such a sick beat and he hits the 2 remaining 8's what are the actual odd's of him doing this hitting running 8's and the remaining case 8?
Posted by ginge999

The odds are 989 to 1 for him to make quads after the flop.

FlashFlush

yes 0.1% 1000/1 ...

scotty77

50/50

he either makes quads or he doesn't

ginge999

Thanks flash such a sick beat

unknown_username

River was irrelevant anyway, he beat you on the turn and you were drawing to 2 outs by the river. On the flop he was actually drawing to 10 outs (disregarding FD) and so he will still win a fairly large % of the time, not 1000:1 anyway! So it's not that sick of a beat imo. OF course it's still a -EV call by him, but people in the speed tourneys such as the open shove with AK/AQ for the mere fold equity on those kind of boards as well so I don't know.

If you flopped a set and he made running quads then that would be rather sick.

MereNovice

In Response to Re: Unreal whats the odds anyone?:

River was irrelevant anyway, he beat you on the turn and you were drawing to 2 outs by the river. On the flop he was actually drawing to 10 outs (disregarding FD) and so he will still win a fairly large % of the time, not 1000:1 anyway! So it's not that sick of a beat imo. OF course it's still a -EV call by him, but people in the speed tourneys such as the open shove with AK/AQ for the mere fold equity on those kind of boards as well so I don't know. If you flopped a set and he made running quads then that would be rather sick.
Posted by Deadluck

Actually, it's 9 outs (disregarding FD).

See https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3a57795ac2-1793-4377-b4cf-e124b0f555f4Forum%3adf77f82c-151f-4bea-aae1-fb423dcae1faDiscussion%3a49aad06a-8fbe-4479-a06e-9fee5dcc71b8&plckShowLatestPost=1

for a full discussion of the maths of the situtation.

(*Warning, only those with a strong interest in maths should follow that link*).

unknown_username

Yes you're right sorry. 887776666. My point remains, its not that much of a bad beat, pretty standard play in these fast structures.

MereNovice

Absolutely but it feels worse when the guy makes r/r quads.